Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the latest US aid package gives his country the ability to regain the initiative in its war with Russia.
The nearly $61 billion aid package recently passed by the US House of Representatives comes at a time when Russian forces are taking advantage of their weapons and manpower advantages over Ukrainian forces to make new advances.
“I think this support will really strengthen the Ukrainian armed forces,” Zelensky told NBC News on April 21 through an interpreter. “We lost the initiative,” the Ukrainian president said. “Now we have every chance to stabilize the situation and regain the initiative.”
Experts also agree that the latest US aid package, which will likely include artillery shells, air defense systems and medium- and long-range missiles, will be a “lifeline” that will allow Ukraine to “close the gap” after months of losses and dwindling supplies of weapons and ammunition.
A Russian missile is launched from the country's Belgorod region, as seen from Kharkiv, April 18, 2024. Photo: CBS News
Nick Reynolds, a researcher on land warfare at the London-based security think tank RUSI, said the bill’s passage was “hugely significant.” He told iNews: “This is a real lifesaver. The Ukrainians are really short of artillery shells… they’re running out.”
The aid package will go to the US Senate for its first vote on April 23 and is expected to be approved before being signed into law by President Joe Biden later this week. The bill has been stalled for months due to opposition from some Republicans in the US House of Representatives.
Before the bill passed the House of Representatives on April 20, Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder said the US could begin delivering security assistance to Ukraine within “days” of the bill becoming law. Thanks to its robust logistics system, the Pentagon can “increase security assistance in significant quantities,” the US official said.
Coming at a crucial time
Justin Crump, a former British Army officer who runs the risk intelligence firm Sibylline, points out that Ukraine has recently had to start allocating its artillery ammunition reserves to the front line. “For the US, the bill means that suppliers can start shipping weapons into Ukraine immediately – and for Ukraine, it gives them peace of mind. Now that they know there will be more artillery, they can start using what they have as normal,” Crump said.
Of the $61 billion, about $13 billion is for replenishing the US arsenal, Matthew Savill, director of military science at RUSI, pointed out. “About $28 billion is for providing equipment directly to Ukraine: $13.9 billion to help Ukraine buy equipment and $13.7 billion to buy US systems for Ukraine,” he said.
Ukraine will also receive more than $9 billion in economic assistance in the form of “forgivable loans,” meaning they do not need to be repaid and will help keep the Ukrainian government functioning. Money has also been provided for U.S. “military support” in the region. The national security package also includes a controversial provision that would allow Ukraine to use money from seized Russian assets, despite objections from the international banking system.
“While new equipment procurement could cause delays, the Pentagon has said that some items are ready for delivery, just needing approval, to minimize delivery times, almost certainly including 155mm artillery shells,” Savill said.
Ukrainian soldiers near the Chasiv Yar flashpoint during the conflict with Russia, April 2024. Photo: The Telegraph
“The US move gives other countries more confidence,” said Sibylline’s Crump, referring to the aid bill passed by the US House of Representatives. “There were concerns about the US backing down, leaving a bigger gap for other countries to fill. Now that the US is back as the driving force behind this, other countries will be more confident.”
Demand for 155mm artillery shells has skyrocketed during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, what NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has called an “ammunition battle,” as Western allies race to scale up production of the shells.
The influx of US aid also comes at a critical time in the war. Ukraine is struggling with a shortage of air defenses and depleted missile batteries after a recent series of Russian airstrikes, particularly targeting energy infrastructure. In recent weeks, Russia has seized control of hundreds of square kilometers of territory in Donbass after the frontline town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region fell in February.
The Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement on April 21 that Moscow's forces had taken control of the village of Bohdanivka in the Donetsk region. Last week, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry denied that Russia had taken full control of Bohdanivka, admitting that it had lost some positions in the frontline village. Unofficial Ukrainian sources said that Bohdanivka was in Russian hands, based on video footage of the village and the town of Chasiv Yar, in the southwest.
Help bridge the gap
The US has so far sent Ukraine about $111 billion in aid since the start of hostilities more than two years ago, while the EU agreed in February to provide an additional $54 billion in aid to Ukraine. Mr. Stoltenberg has pledged to increase NATO’s ability to provide air defense systems.
However, RUSI's Mr Savill warned that the latest US aid package is unlikely to “create immediate parity with Russia's firepower, but it will help close the gap”.
“This money will pay the salaries of civil servants, doctors and teachers who are not generating tax because they are on the frontline,” defence analyst Peter Caddick-Adams told iNews, but much of it will also be used to “improve air defence systems, including the US-made Patriot air defence system that can intercept Russian missiles.”
Ukraine currently has three Patriot systems, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said the country needs 26 to cover the entire country and is pushing European partners to send more.
ATACMS MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System made in the US. Photo: Getty Images
The aid package could also include long-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, several of which were donated to Ukraine by the US last year. The missiles have a range of 300km and have been used by Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory.
US President Joe Biden will have the final say on whether the weapon is provided to Ukraine. Any ATACMS transfer has not been publicly disclosed.
The White House chief may not want the weapons system to be used to strike directly at Russia, said Sibylline's Crump.
But while Ukrainian politicians and military commanders welcomed the aid bill, there were concerns about the future of Ukraine's fighting effort as Russia ramped up its weapons production.
“This funding can probably only help to stabilise Ukraine’s position this year and start preparing for operations in 2025,” said RUSI’s Savill.
“Boosting morale and adding ammunition to strengthen their defenses are prerequisites to start rebuilding Ukraine’s fighting forces and making progress next year… but further planning is needed and money will be needed for 2025. Importantly, between now and then, we will see the US presidential election,” the expert concluded .
Minh Duc (According to iNews, Bloomberg, Reuters)
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