Is Man Utd wasting Bruno Fernandes?

With a higher-quality striker, Man Utd could have scored 10 more goals in the Premier League last season thanks to Bruno Fernandes' creativity.

"I could spend all day talking about Bruno Fernandes' abilities," midfielder Casemiro said in early June.

In the 2022-2023 season, striker Marcus Rashford could have been outstanding with 30 goals in 56 games, the team's highest tally in 10 years. However, according to Casemiro, Fernandes remains more important at Man Utd. "Fernandes is like a machine, pulling the whole team forward," the Brazilian midfielder added.

Midfielder Bruno Fernandes after Manchester United's match against Aston Villa in the Premier League on April 30, 2023. Photo: Reuters

Even at Man Utd, Fernandes has faced mixed opinions, as not all fans appreciate the Portuguese midfielder. Some are unhappy with his gestures on the pitch, such as pressuring the referee, shouting at teammates, or waving his arms in the air as if expressing dissatisfaction. "That's not the case," Fernandes explained earlier this year. "People often think I yell at my teammates in a negative way, but it's the opposite. My waving doesn't always mean anything negative."

Some see Fernandes as a leader, others think he's just a complainer. Both are true, because he wore the captain's armband for most of last season. As manager Erik ten Hag said: "Fernandes is a role model on the pitch thanks to his boundless energy, contributing to the team's transitional phases."

The numbers show that Ten Hag and Casemiro are not just empty rhetoric.

Only five players pressed opponents more than Fernandes in the Premier League last season. At Man Utd, the midfielder maintained the highest level of pressing, despite playing the most games in Europe. He played a total of 5,163 minutes across all competitions last season, and no other player in Europe played more than 4,760 minutes. "Whenever I asked Fernandes if he wanted to rest for the next game, he always said no," Ten Hag revealed.

Fernandes' energy is so abundant that he often gets close to the referee after controversial decisions. He has also berated referees, dived in the penalty area, and pushed an assistant referee, rarely facing punishment. Whenever Fernandes does something that looks ugly but benefits Man Utd, the club's fans often comment: "He may be a jerk, but he's our jerk."

Last season, Fernandes scored eight goals and provided eight assists in the Premier League. He ranked 29th in goals and ninth in assists. But the former Sporting midfielder's influence extends far beyond that.

A player's impact in attack can be measured by three combined metrics: shots on goal, assists, and assists leading to a shot. If these three metrics are combined, Fernandes leads the Premier League by a significant margin over the players behind him .

The table above shows Fernandes was involved in 291 shots on goal. Of those, he took 82 shots himself and provided 109 assists, a combined total that puts him at the top of the league. In addition, the 29-year-old midfielder was involved in 100 instances of ball distribution leading to a shot on goal. Regardless of effectiveness, these statistics demonstrate just how high-performing Fernandes is.

Last season, Brighton had the most shots in the Premier League with 613, while Man Utd were fourth alongside Arsenal with 593. While other teams had many players creating chances, Fernandes spearheaded the majority of the Red Devils' attacks.

Fernandes' direct style of play partly contributed to his top ranking in these statistics. He made 201 long passes in the tournament, second only to five other players, while Man Utd also had the most direct attacks with 102. They also scored the most goals from direct attacks, with 9 goals.

It's understandable for Man Utd because Rashford is in top form, but the striker is better suited to a more direct counter-attacking style of play. The English forward is fast and has a good shot, although he's not a typical center forward who can hold up the ball. Therefore, Fernandes' passes are often directed towards Rashford. The Portuguese midfielder has created 36 scoring opportunities for Rashford in the league, the most frequent combination in the Premier League. The "dynamic duo" of Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland only came in third with 26 passes from the Belgian midfielder.

Fernandes has also limited his direct style of play in recent seasons, with his number of long passes gradually decreasing to 194 last season. Instead, he makes more secondary passes, although these still lead to scoring opportunities.

Secondary chances created are passes made to a player who then passes to another teammate for a shot. For example, Fernandes passes to Casemiro, who then passes to Rashford for a shot; the Brazilian midfielder is counted as creating a chance, while Fernandes is counted as creating a secondary chance. Fernandes has almost doubled this statistic compared to last season, reaching 58 secondary passes. This shows that he is limiting dangerous but potentially deadly passes, opting instead for more intelligent plays.

Fernandes' passing effectiveness hasn't diminished. His number of assists has dropped from 12 to 8 over the last two seasons, but this statistic also depends on the quality of the striker's finishing.

Forward Weghorst (number 27) during the English League Cup final at Wembley Stadium, London, on February 26, 2023. Photo: Reuters

A more accurate way to measure Fernandes's ability to create chances is the expected goals (xG) he generates from his passes. In other words, it's the quality of chances Fernandes creates for his teammates, since expected goals is the probability of a striker scoring in a given situation.

In total, Fernandes generated 14 xG from open play, the most in the Premier League, a 36% increase in quality compared to the 2021-2022 season. In other words, Fernandes' passes ensured he should have 14 assists, but poor finishing from forwards meant he only had 8. De Bruyne generated 12 xG last season, while Fernandes had 16 assists, meaning Man City's forwards were much better at utilizing the Belgian midfielder's passes. If we assume a forward's average xG of 0.75 per goal, Fernandes deserved 18 assists, meaning Man Utd would have had 10 more goals last season with a better center forward.

Fernandes' passes created scoring opportunities in the 2022-2023 Premier League season. Photo: Opta

Fernandes' creative potential is being wasted at Man Utd, with Anthony Martial underperforming and Wout Weghorst failing to score in 17 Premier League games.

The solution for Man Utd is nothing less than a top-class center forward capable of capitalizing on the opportunities created by Fernandes. Rashford has just had the most effective season of his career, but no one can guarantee he will maintain that form next season. Furthermore, Rashford tends to play on the left wing, rather than as a central striker. If Man Utd had a higher-quality striker than Martial or Weghorst, they could have scored many more goals.

Everyone knows that's the problem with Man Utd, but the team is facing difficulties in the transfer market. Tottenham are unwilling to sell Harry Kane for less than $120 million, even with only one year left on his contract. Victor Osimhen, Randal Kolo Muani, or Rasmus Hojlund could also upgrade Man Utd, but these players are also priced at around $100 million. The unresolved ownership issue is also making the club hesitant to spend heavily on expensive players.

Without signing a top-class striker, Man Utd will endure another season wasting Fernandes' talent.

Xuan Binh

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