Are Man Utd wasting Bruno Fernandes?

With a better striker, Man Utd could have scored 10 more goals in the Premier League last season thanks to the creativity of Bruno Fernandes.

"I could spend all day talking about Bruno Fernandes' ability," midfielder Casemiro said earlier in June.

In the 2022-2023 season, striker Marcus Rashford could play prominently with 30 goals in 56 matches, the team's highest achievement in 10 years. However, according to Casemiro, Fernandes is still more important at Man Utd. "Fernandes is like a machine, pulling the whole team forward," added the Brazilian midfielder.

Midfielder Bruno Fernandes after Man Utd's match against Aston Villa in the Premier League on April 30, 2023. Photo: Reuters

Even at Man Utd, Fernandes still faces mixed opinions, because not all fans appreciate the Portuguese midfielder. There are people who are not satisfied with his gestures on the field, such as pressuring the referee, yelling at teammates or waving his arms in the air in a discontented attitude. "That's not true," Fernandes explained earlier this year. "People often think that I yell at my teammates in a bad way, but it's the opposite. I don't always wave my arms in a negative way."

Some see Fernandes as a leader, others as a whiner. Both are true, after all, he captained Man Utd for much of last season. Coach Erik ten Hag himself said: "Fernandes is a role model on the pitch thanks to his abundant energy, contributing to the team's transitions."

The numbers show that Ten Hag or Casemiro are not empty words.

Only five players pressed opponents more than Fernandes in the Premier League last season. At Man Utd, the midfielder maintained the highest intensity of pressing, despite playing the most games in Europe. He played a total of 5,163 minutes in all competitions last season, and no other player in Europe played more than 4,760. "Whenever I asked him if he wanted to miss the next game, he said no," Ten Hag revealed.

Fernandes has such a high energy that he often goes toe-to-toe with referees after controversial decisions. He has also yelled at referees, dived in the penalty area or pushed an assistant referee, all without being punished. Whenever Fernandes does something ugly but beneficial to Man Utd, fans often comment: "He may be a bastard, but he's our bastard."

Last season, Fernandes scored eight goals and assisted eight in the Premier League. He ranked 29th in goals and ninth in assists. But the former Sporting midfielder's influence was wider than that.

A player’s impact in attack can be measured by three combined metrics: shots, passes to teammates who shoot, and build-up play that leads to a shot. Combined, Fernandes leads the Premier League by a large margin .

The table above shows that Fernandes was involved in 291 shots. Of these, he shot 82 times and passed to his teammates to shoot 109 times, two combined figures that were enough to top the league. In addition, the 29-year-old midfielder also participated in the build-up process leading to a shot 100 times. Regardless of efficiency, the above figures show how the "machine" Fernandes operates at high capacity.

Last season, Brighton had the most shots in the Premier League with 613, while Man Utd were fourth with Arsenal with 593. While other teams had many ball-playing players, Fernandes led most of the "Red Devils" attacks.

Fernandes’ direct style of play has helped him top those stats. He completed 201 long passes in the league, just five players behind, while Man Utd also made the most direct attacks with 102. They also scored the most goals from direct attacks, with nine.

It's understandable for Man Utd because Rashford is in good form, but this striker is more suitable for a direct defensive counter-attacking style of play. The English striker runs fast, shoots well, although he is not a typical striker who knows how to make a wall. Therefore, the balls from Fernandes focus a lot on Rashford. The Portuguese midfielder passed the ball to create finishing opportunities for Rashford 36 times in the tournament, the most frequent combination in the Premier League. The "pair" Kevin de Bruyne and Erling Haaland is only third with 26 passes from the Belgian midfielder.

Fernandes has also cut back on his direct play in recent seasons, with his long passes dropping to 194 last season. Instead, he plays more secondary balls that still lead to shooting opportunities.

Secondary chances created are passes to a player, who then passes to another teammate to finish. For example, Fernandes passes to Casemiro, then Casemiro passes to Rashford to shoot, the Brazilian midfielder is counted as creating a chance, and Fernandes is counted as creating a secondary chance. Fernandes has almost doubled this figure compared to last season, to 58 secondary passes. That shows that he limits the deadly but risky passes, instead making smarter moves.

Fernandes’ passing has not diminished in any way. His assists have dropped from 12 to eight in the last two seasons, but that is down to the striker’s finishing.

Striker Weghorst (No. 27) in the English League Cup final at Wembley Stadium, London on February 26, 2023. Photo: Reuters

A more accurate way to measure Fernandes’ chance creation is the expected goals (xG) he creates from his passes. In other words, it’s the quality of chances Fernandes creates for his teammates, since xG is the probability of a striker scoring in a given situation.

In total, Fernandes generated 14 xG from open play, the most in the Premier League, a 36% increase in quality compared to the 2021-2022 season. In other words, Fernandes' passes warranted 14 assists, but his strikers' finishing was so poor that he only managed 8. De Bruyne's xG last season was 12, while he had 16, meaning Man City's strikers made much better use of the Belgian's passes. Assuming a striker averages 0.75 xG per goal, Fernandes would have had 18 assists, meaning Man Utd would have had 10 more goals last season with a better striker.

Fernandes' passes create finishing opportunities in the Premier League 2022-2023. Photo: Opta

Fernandes' creativity is being wasted at Man Utd, with Anthony Martial playing ineffectively and Wout Weghorst not even scoring a goal in 17 Premier League games.

The solution for United is nothing less than a top striker who can capitalise on the chances Fernandes creates. Rashford has had the most productive season of his career, but there is no guarantee he will maintain his form next season. Furthermore, Rashford has a tendency to drift left, rather than play as a centre-forward. If United had a better striker than Martial or Weghorst, they would have scored more goals.

Everyone knows that Man Utd's problem is there, but the team is having problems in the transfer market. Tottenham does not want to sell Harry Kane for less than 120 million USD even though he has only one year left on his contract. Victor Osimhen, Randal Kolo Muani or Rasmus Hojlund can also improve Man Utd, but these players also cost approximately 100 million USD. The unresolved issue of changing ownership also makes the team hesitant to spend money on expensive players.

Without adding a top-class striker, Man Utd will go through another season wasting Fernandes' talent.

Xuan Binh

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