► Stock market commentary March 20: VN-Index may fluctuate around 1,320 points
Positive recommendation for POW stock
According to MB Securities Company (MBS), in 2025, PetroVietnam Power Corporation (POW) has a positive prospect of mobilizing output from the low base of 2024, especially for the thermal power group due to: Electricity consumption growth reaching 12% according to the plan of the Ministry of Industry and Trade , supporting the output of the plants expected to improve strongly; The mobilization environment is more positive when EVN somewhat reduces financial pressure after electricity price increases. However, MBS forecasts that net profit will only be flat (up 0.7%), largely due to new cost burdens from Nhon Trach 3&4.
Looking to 2026, when NT3&4 are fully operational and the existing plants continue to benefit from the expected double-digit growth in electricity demand in the 2026-30 period according to the Revised PDP8, it will be the main growth driver for POW. Therefore, MBS expects 2026 net profit to grow by 44% with the main driver coming from the electricity group.
MBS gives a positive recommendation with an unchanged target price of VND 14,900/share due to an 8%/4% reduction in EPS 2025/2026 compared to the previous report; shifting the DCF valuation model to 2025. With the current P/B valuation reaching 0.9x, much lower than the industry average (~1.5x), MBS sees POW as a suitable investment choice thanks to its cheap valuation, core operations with a turning point of improvement in 2025 and low downside risk when difficulties have been reflected in the stock price.
Neutral recommendation for CTD stock
KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) recommends neutral for Coteccons Construction Joint Stock Company (CTD), target price of VND95,400/share based on investment thesis: The analysis team maintains the view that the recovery of the construction market will be a premise for CTD to maintain its backlog growth momentum in the coming time thanks to its leading position. Some key drivers of job supply include: stable FDI capital inflows helping to maintain industrial backlog, recovery of the real estate market, and additional backlog from public investment projects. KBSV estimates CTD's revenue at VND25,685/27,459 billion (up 22%/7% over the same period).
KBSV estimates CTD's gross profit margin to reach 4%/4.5% in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, with provision expenses estimated to reach 0.2%/0.3% of revenue. The recovery of the real estate market is expected to help CTD improve debt collection progress, reduce the risk of bad debt and provision expenses in the coming time.
Covestcons (100% owned by CTD) has just been approved to invest in Thanh Phu Residential Area, Long An , and is expected to sell more than 1,000 low-rise apartments from the fourth quarter of 2029. KBSV expects the Emerald68 project to be handed over in the 2027-2028 fiscal year, contributing VND377 billion in profit to CTD.
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