Many factors promote coffee exports to increase in 2024

Key factors supporting stable coffee prices at high levels

According to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai - Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), the recent increase in coffee prices is due to many factors, including the impact of climate change, the El Nino phenomenon causing drought in coffee growing areas around the world leading to a decrease in supply. In addition to climate factors, military conflicts around the world, tensions in the Red Sea have caused shipping costs and many other costs to increase. A major factor affecting the increase in coffee prices is that many financial speculators around the world choose coffee (after oil and gold) to speculate.

The survey shows that the average coffee price in the Central Highlands provinces this week continued to increase compared to last week. Specifically, in Dak Lak , the average coffee price reached VND91,093/kg, up 3.64% compared to last week (up VND3,200/kg) and up 93.27% compared to the same period in 2023.

Coffee prices remain stable at high levels. Source: Vifoca

In Lam Dong , the average coffee price reached VND90,320/kg, up 3.65% compared to last week (up VND3,180/kg), and up 92.99% compared to the same period last year.

Assessing the reasons for the continuous increase in coffee prices in recent times, Mr. Vu Tuan Anh - Chairman of JCI Vietnam 2023 - said: Japan's Nikkei Asia newspaper also pointed out that global coffee futures prices are near record levels or recent highs. Prices are being boosted by increased demand from the growing middle class in China and other Asian countries, while some of the world's major coffee producing countries are almost suffering from crop failures due to climate change.

“The drought caused by El Nino is having a strong impact on coffee output and quality. Even heavy rain during the coffee flowering period also affects crop output. Reduced supply and logistics difficulties while demand is increasing are the main factors pushing up coffee prices,” Mr. Vu Tuan Anh emphasized.

The quality of Vietnamese coffee is increasingly improving, meeting the needs of global consumers. Photo: Vu Long

The information also shows that global coffee bean consumption in the period 2023-2024 will increase by 20% from 2013-2014, in which Asia increases the most.

"Coffee prices will continue to stay high, especially if major economies in the world continue to reduce interest rates, coffee exports will continue to benefit at least in the first half of 2024," said Mr. Vu Tuan Anh.

Coffee exports continue to be optimistic

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), coffee consumption in major producing countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia increased by 60% and 90% respectively during the same period. In particular, China - the world's third largest coffee consumer - is currently experiencing an increase of up to 130%.

Update from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) shows that in the first two months of 2024 (3-month data not updated - PV), Vietnam's coffee exports reached about 394,167 tons of coffee, worth about 1.25 billion USD, up 15.1% in volume and 67.7% in value over the same period last year. The export value of Robusta coffee reached nearly 1.84 billion USD, Arabica coffee beans reached more than 56.62 million USD.

In the first 5 months of the 2023/2024 crop year, Vietnam exported about 764,802 tons of coffee, with a turnover of over 2.36 billion USD, up 1.5% in volume and 39.4% in value over the same period last crop year.

Based on optimistic factors about prices, global coffee production reports and import demand of countries, Mr. Thai Nhu Hiep - Vice President of Vicofa - commented: Vietnam's coffee export in the 2023-2024 crop year could reach 4.5-5 billion USD.

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