Ukrainian army at a crossroads in Pokrovs, retreat or defend to the death?
The fate of Pokrovsk has entered the countdown phase, the question now is whether the Ukrainian army will fight to the end, or "retreat at the right time"?
Báo Khoa học và Đời sống•30/07/2025
Since the Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) captured Avadivka in early 2024, they have been steadily advancing all the way to Pokrovsk, advancing some 50 kilometers in that time, reaching the very edge of Pokrovsk. Now, the decisive moment of the battle for Pokrovsk has arrived. The RFAF considers this a key strategic objective and is determined to win this summer’s campaign. Pokrovsk is located in the western Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, in a strategic location where the T0406 railway line, the Northern Railway line and the M30 highway intersect. Before the war, the population of Pokrovsk was about 60,000, and today it is still over 10,000.
The strategic importance of Pokrovsk is primarily reflected in its unique geographical location. It has become the transport hub of eastern Ukraine, as well as a key chokepoint for the military operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the Donetsk region, which they still control; this is reflected in the following aspects: Position as a transport hub: Located in the heart of the Donbass region, Pokrovsk is an important junction between Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. The H15 and M04 highways here form a thoroughfare. Pokrovsk controls the vital road route between central Ukraine and Donbass. If the RFAF takes control of Pokrovsk, they can open up the western Donbass route and lay the groundwork for further attacks. Geographical advantage: Pokrovsk is located in the northwest of Donetsk Oblast, connecting three important strategic locations. To the north, it leads to the core urban clusters of Ukraine's eastern defense line, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk; to the east, it leads directly to the Russian-controlled city of Donetsk; to the west, it leads to Dnipro and other supply centers. Its unique geographical location makes it key to the Ukrainian military's defense line. Defensive Barrier: As the AFU's second line of defense in Donbass, the importance of Pokrovsk is obvious. If it controls Pokrovsk, the RFAF can quickly break through and directly approach the AFU's core defense line, threatening the flank of the Donetsk defensive arc, and can quickly push the attack to strategic positions such as Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. Logistics hub: Pokrovsk is not only an important transport hub but also one of the AFU’s logistics hubs. It houses important supply bases and field hospitals, supporting key tasks such as supplying frontline troops, transporting wounded, and maintaining equipment. In 2023, the RFAF made several attempts to cut off supply routes in the area, but so far has not been entirely successful. Industrial resources and energy transport: The area around Pokrovsk is an important coal-producing region of Ukraine. Coal mines and machine-building plants are concentrated here. It is the distribution center of the western Donbass coal, a coal mine that is extremely important for Ukraine's energy security. In addition, there are factories near the city that produce and maintain armored vehicles, providing necessary technical support to the front line. Since the RFAF captured Bakhmut in 2023, Pokrovsk has become one of the RFAF's key objectives in its quest to fully control Donetsk. As of July 2025, the fighting has lasted for approximately 1 year and 2 months. During this time, both sides have launched several key battles.
In May 2024, the RFAF successfully defeated the AFU counterattack, occupied the outskirts of Pokrovsk, and built a launching ground for the attack; in June 2024, the RFAF concentrated its forces to launch a large-scale attack, and the attack lasted until April 2025. The fighting became increasingly fierce and became the core battlefield in the Donetsk region. The RFAF reportedly broke through the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk in May 2025, and the AFU suffered heavy losses, with around 3,000 casualties. Since the RFAF launched its large-scale attack on Pokrovsk in June 2024, the battle has lasted for around 13 months. The AFU is currently building a multi-layered defense line near Pokrovsk, relying on buildings in the city, in preparation for street fighting, trying to delay the RFAF's advance. However, the RFAF's offensive continues to strengthen, and the final decisive battle for Pokrovsk seems imminent. Starting in June 2024, the battle for Pokrovsk entered a period of extreme tension, as the RFAF steadily approached the urban area of Pokrovsk and deployed special forces to the regional transport hub, less than a kilometer from the city. According to Russian media, the AFU defense line showed signs of collapse, with some troops suffering heavy losses and having to retreat to makeshift defense lines. The RFAF attack on Pokrovsk became increasingly fierce, with more than 40 assaults per day, while the AFU retreated to villages and towns outside Pokrovsk. The RFAF is adopting a series of new tactics, such as UAV-guided artillery strikes, precision strikes on AFU positions and ammunition depots, close coordination between forces, and increased attack pressure from all directions. It can be seen that the RFAF maintains cautious attacks outside Pokrovsk, to avoid getting bogged down in the quagmire of street fighting like in Mariupol or Bakhmut again.
The RFAF surrounded the AFU's rear in Pokrovsk and implemented the "encirclement - annihilation" tactic, preventing any AFU reinforcements from reaching Pokrovsk. Although the AFU was equipped with advanced weapons such as the US-made HIMARS missile launch system and had strengthened its defenses due to its pre-preparedness advantage, the continuous attacks by the RFAF had increasingly weakened the AFU's defenses. The AFU's Pokrovsk defense line is under great pressure. Although the Ukrainian defense line is very strong, under the constant pressure of the RFAF's offensive, the constant shortage of ammunition and troops makes it difficult to maintain the stability of the AFU defense line. Control of Pokrovsk would open the door to the southern Donbass route for the RFAF. In particular, after controlling the railway junction in the region, the RFAF would be able to open the route to Dnipropetrovsk, which means that a deep attack into the heart of Donbass is on the cards. With the capture of Pokrovsk, the RFAF could quickly cut off the AFU's eastern defense line and launch an offensive towards Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, thereby threatening the AFU's "base" in Donbass. On July 14, the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army, General Gerasimov, personally visited the Donbass battlefield and urged the attack on Pokrovsk. The purpose of this inspection trip was obviously to speed up the capture of Pokrovsk and develop tactics for the next stage; demonstrating the RFAF's sense of urgency in the face of the war situation.
Overall, Pokrovsk’s strategic location makes it a key battleground in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. As the RFAF continues to advance toward the city, Ukraine’s defenses are facing unprecedented challenges. The outcome of the battle will directly determine the direction of the Donbass campaign and whether the RFAF will be able to penetrate the Ukrainian defenses and advance further westward into Ukraine. Will the AFU fight to the end or retreat in time from Pokrovsk? (photo source: Military Review, TASS, Ukrinform, Al Jazeera).
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