Russia-EU Relations: When Trust Falls Seriously

(CLO) Relations between Russia and Europe are in a difficult period, especially after Russia's special military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022. Will the trend of tension between the parties continue in 2025?

The relationship is completely cold.

Relations between Russia and the European Union (EU) have cooled, especially since Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine in February 2022. The space for political dialogue between the parties has increasingly narrowed. Instead of promoting cooperation in economic and trade issues as before, today, the EU's sanctions and embargoes against Russia are constantly being tightened and strengthened.

The Russia-EU summits have given way to separate European and Western summits, focused on confiscating “frozen” Russian assets and diplomatic isolation of Russia, such as banning entry of Russian citizens to several European countries, cutting off contacts with Russian cultural institutions…

Illustration: GI

Analysts believe that the confrontation between Russia and the EU will continue. This argument is well-founded because European countries in the period 2022-2024 have been able to replace energy supplies from Russia (to varying degrees) by using oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US and gas supplies from Qatar and North Africa. This will reduce the interest of EU leaders in restoring relations with Moscow.

The trend of confrontation between Russia and the EU in particular, and Western countries in general, is unlikely to be reversed by the emergence of US President Donald Trump in his second term and possible agreements on Ukraine that the EU itself can hardly imagine.

Moreover, the political upheaval in Germany ahead of the 2025 elections or the constant change of government in France reveal the difficulties and challenges that European countries themselves are facing. Domestic and regional challenges make it difficult for them to reverse their foreign policy towards Russia.

EU's tough policy

In 2025, the EU is likely to continue to tighten sanctions policies against Russia, focusing on fighting intermediaries that help Russian companies “evade” the embargo; at the same time, increase financial support, military aid to Ukraine, regardless of the development of the conflict… There will also be new approaches to the legal framework related to the confiscation of Russian assets.

There are two reasons for this trend. First, in terms of strategic thinking, the EU is just entering a period of strategic autonomy. Europeans recognize that the EU needs to maintain a position in the new European security system, but have not yet developed specific steps and a roadmap for implementation.

As a result, there are often tough statements by European leaders about direct intervention in the Ukrainian conflict, sending reserve troops, calling for strengthening the equipment of European armies, but the consequences of these impulses for Russia-EU tensions or the European security situation are not fully taken into account.

Although there are still differences in approaches to relations with Russia within Europe, the hardline trend will continue to dominate, at least during the next four years of President Donald Trump's term, and will also stimulate Europe's "strategic autonomy".

Second, political trust between Moscow and Brussels has arguably sunk to an all-time low since the Cold War. In the EU’s view, Russia is a “threat to European security,” especially on the EU’s eastern flank, and undermines the foundations of the world order. In turn, Russia views the West’s Eastward policy as a threat to its own security environment.

The tension is not over yet.

Each side refuses to give in to the other and builds its own image of the other, although these images can be very different from reality without communication at different levels and full exchange of information. As European diplomats said in 2022, “the sound of guns has drowned out the value of diplomacy.”

Nearly three years after Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, the bets of all sides have been unsuccessful, with heavy economic and human losses that will take many years to restore to pre-war levels. And diplomatic activities between the sides continue to stagnate, increasing suspicion amid a lack of information.

Many opinions say that, in the current tense context, even the peace negotiations being promoted to resolve the Ukraine crisis will not change the nature of the conflicts and disagreements between Moscow and Brussels, and will not lead to normalization of relations between the two sides.

However, from the perspective of economic development and ensuring the regional security environment, the parties understand that the only solution is to end the confrontation and sit at the negotiating table. Currently, more and more European individuals, businesses and organizations want to improve cooperation with Russia and wait for the "curtain of tension" to be lowered.

Moving forward, therefore, requires sustained forms of communication at various levels to bridge differences and build political trust. And perhaps there is no better time to engage in dialogue than in 2025, which marks the 75th anniversary of the International Day of Multilateralism and Diplomacy for Peace.

Hung Anh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/quan-he-nga--lien-minh-chau-au-nam-2025-khi-long-tin-sut-giam-nghiem-trong-post328289.html