According to statistics from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), at the close of trading on October 19, Arabica prices increased sharply by nearly 4%, reaching the highest level in more than two months.
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| Coffee export prices continue to increase sharply |
Meanwhile, Robusta prices extended their upward momentum to the 6th consecutive session with an increase of nearly 3% compared to the reference. Concerns about supply problems are the main reason supporting the upward momentum for both coffee products.
In the closing report of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) on October 19, the standard Arabica inventory on the ICE-US dropped sharply by 10,158 bags to 421,614 bags. This is the lowest total Arabica storage level ever recorded since November 7, 2022.
In addition, poor coffee supply in the first 9 months of 2023 in Colombia also raises concerns about the ability to meet coffee needs at present when new crop sales are low and transportation is difficult in Brazil.
According to the Colombian Coffee Growers Federation, total coffee production and exports in the first nine months reached 7.68 million bags and 7.48 million bags, respectively, down 5.7% and 12.7% compared to the same period last year.
Meanwhile, consulting firm Safras & Mercado said Brazilian farmers have sold only 56% of their 2023/24 coffee crop, down from 60% at the same time last year and 59% of the historical average.
Meanwhile, exporters are reporting delays in coffee shipments in Brazil due to a shortage of trucks and containers, while waiting times for cargoes to be loaded onto ships have also skyrocketed, Reuters reported.
As for the Robusta market, exports continue to be gloomy in Vietnam while the new coffee harvest is facing concerns of being negatively affected by the weather, creating double support for prices.
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| Vietnamese coffee prices continue to rise |
Although the harvest season has begun, Vietnam's coffee harvest has been severely affected by the weather. Latest data from the General Department of Customs shows that coffee exports in the first 15 days of October reached only 17,838 tons, down 27% compared to the first half of September and 55% compared to the same period in 2022.
Despite the sharp decrease in export volume, thanks to price support due to the rising trend worldwide , the average export price of Vietnamese coffee in the first half of October 2023 still increased by 7.6% compared to the average of September 2023 and increased by 39.5% compared to the same period last year. As of mid-October, the average export price of coffee reached 2,512 USD/ton, up 10.1% over the same period last year. This is a very high price in many years.
The sharp increase in export prices has supported coffee prices in the domestic market. On October 19, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and the Southern provinces recovered strongly by around VND1,200. Currently, domestic coffee is purchased at around VND57,600 - 58,400/kg. Although this is not the highest price compared to the end of September and the beginning of October, it is still a fairly high price for Vietnamese coffee.
Notably, in the planting stage, there are many young people starting or taking over their family business with specialty coffee; in the brewing stage, there is a team that has been trained in brewing, tasting, and roasting, so the quality has improved. Currently, Vietnam has many batches of specialty coffee that are auctioned at very high prices by customers. For example, a batch of 2 tons of specialty Robusta coffee was priced at up to 350,000 VND/kg.
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