Growth continues, but with volatility

Domestic coffee prices today (September 30) decreased slightly by VND100/kg compared to yesterday (September 29). Meanwhile, world coffee prices have remained high since the end of last week, with Robusta currently up 2.2 times compared to the same period last year and Arabica up about 84.2%.

Coffee prices today decreased slightly by 100 VND/kg compared to last weekend, fluctuating between 121,000 - 122,000 VND/kg. Specifically, coffee prices in Dak Lak province are being purchased by traders at the highest level of 122,000 VND/kg. In Lam Dong and Gia Lai provinces, coffee prices are both traded at 121,000 VND/kg. In Dak Nong province, coffee prices have been adjusted down to 121,100 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today decreased slightly by 100 VND/kg compared to last weekend. Screenshot

The coffee market is witnessing complicated developments, with world coffee prices remaining high, while the domestic Vietnamese market is quiet ahead of the new harvest. Coffee prices are expected to continue to grow tomorrow (October 1), but the growth rate may slow down compared to recent days.

According to the latest data, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange have increased by more than 84% compared to the beginning of the year and 2.2 times higher than the same period last year, reaching 5,482 USD/ton. Arabica prices on the New York exchange have also increased sharply, reaching 269.15 US cents/lb, up 44.5% compared to the beginning of the year. The strong growth in world coffee prices shows that global demand for coffee consumption is still very high.

However, according to Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the slight decrease in world coffee prices in recent days is mainly due to the impact of financial speculation. “Market demand remains unchanged, but the fluctuation in coffee prices on the trading floor is mainly due to financial speculation. The decrease in world coffee prices has dragged down domestic coffee prices,” Mr. Hai commented.

Meanwhile, the domestic market in Vietnam is very quiet ahead of the new harvest season of 2024/2025. Many traders are offering a discount of 200-250 USD/ton below the listed price on the London floor. Mr. Nguyen Duc Tuan Vinh, General Director of Tuan Loc Commodities Company Limited, said that speculation has contributed to pushing up coffee prices. When the market has more supply than demand, the impact of speculation will be stronger because it contributes to pushing prices down. However, recently, supply has started to equal or lower than demand, and climate change has also caused a significant reduction in supply, so speculation has contributed to further increasing coffee prices.

Coffee prices are expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down compared to recent days.

In addition, coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year in Vietnam is expected to decrease sharply, to a 13-year low. According to the Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ), the main reason is the impact of climate change and unusual weather. Storm No. 4 caused moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Central Highlands, with some places experiencing very heavy rain, which is forecast to affect coffee growing areas right before the new harvest season. This has made experts concerned about coffee quality and export output in the coming time.

However, according to Mr. Hai, coffee harvesting begins in November, and hopefully by then the rain and wind will be gone. He also recommends that people prepare processing, drying, and drying facilities well to ensure that coffee beans are best preserved in case of adverse weather.

Overall, coffee prices on October 1, 2024 are expected to continue to grow, but the growth rate may slow down compared to recent days. The volatility of coffee prices depends on many complex factors, including consumption demand, production, weather, and speculative activities. It is necessary to closely monitor market developments to make appropriate investment decisions.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-1102024-tang-truong-tiep-tuc-nhung-an-chua-nhieu-bien-dong-349328.html