The market has fallen sharply compared to last week.

Việt Nam•06/10/2024

World coffee prices at 4:30 AM on October 7, 2024, were updated on the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) (MXV continuously updates world coffee prices, matching those of exchanges worldwide; it is the only channel in Vietnam that continuously updates prices linked to exchanges around the world).

Today's online coffee prices from the three main futures exchanges, ICE Futures Europe, ICE Futures US, and B3 Brazil, are continuously updated by Y5Cafe throughout the trading hours and are also updated on www.giacaphe.com as follows:

Coffee prices today, October 7, 2024: Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

At the close of trading on October 7, 2024, at 4:30 AM, Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange were trading at 4,533 – 5,067 tons. Specifically, the November 2024 delivery contract was 5,067 USD/ton, an increase of 146 USD/ton; the January 2025 delivery contract was 4,859 USD/ton, an increase of 139 USD/ton; the March 2025 delivery contract was 4,674 USD/ton, an increase of 126 USD/ton; and the May 2025 delivery contract was 4,533 USD/ton, an increase of 110 USD/ton.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange on October 7, 2024. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange on the morning of October 7, 2024, were predominantly green, ranging from 4.95 to 5.30 cents/lb. Specifically, the December 2024 delivery contract was 257.35 cents/lb, up 2.10%; the March 2025 contract was 255.65 cents/lb (up 2.06%); the May 2025 contract was 253.55 cents/lb (up 2.01%); and the July 2025 contract was 251.00 cents/lb (up 2.01%).

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices on October 7, 2024. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices on the morning of October 7, 2024 showed mixed movements. Specifically, the December 2024 delivery contract was $308.05/ton, down 0.95%; the March 2025 contract was $310.30/ton (up 1.72%); the May 2025 contract was $311.20/ton (up 2.17%); and the July 2025 contract was $307.75/ton (up 2.17%).

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Coffee prices today, October 7, 2024: The market has fallen sharply compared to last week.

Domestic coffee prices, updated at 4:30 AM on October 7, 2024, are as follows: The domestic coffee market continues to maintain a positive trend today, with an average increase of 1,600 VND/kg, ranging from 115,500 to 116,200 VND. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 116,200 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong provinces at 116,200 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 116,100 VND/kg, an increase of 1,600 VND/kg; in Pleiku and La Grai it is 116,000 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 116,100 VND/kg, an increase of 1,600 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 116,200 VND/kg, an increase of 1,700 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is being purchased at 115,500 VND/kg, an increase of 1,700 VND/kg, remaining unchanged compared to yesterday.

Today's coffee prices (October 7th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 116,200 VND/kg, an increase of 1,500 VND/kg; while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at 116,100 VND/kg.

Overall, domestic coffee prices today, October 7, 2024, are at 115,500 – 116,200 VND/kg. Over the weekend, coffee prices unexpectedly increased again by 1,500 to 1,700 VND/kg in various localities. In total for the week, coffee prices decreased by an average of 4,900 – 5,600 VND/kg compared to the previous week.

According to the Import-Export Department, Vietnam could see its lowest coffee production in 13 years in the 2024-2025 crop year, which will pose unprecedented challenges to the global coffee market.

The recovery of the coffee market after the summer holidays in the Northern Hemisphere is boosting trading, especially ahead of the winter roasting season in Europe and the US. Coffee demand is expected to surge in the coming months, putting further pressure on prices. However, the main issue lies in supply. While the USDA forecasts an increase in the upcoming harvest, many coffee industry experts are pessimistic, predicting a 15% drop in production due to unfavorable weather and shrinking coffee acreage.

The severe drought during the past dry season has negatively impacted the quality and size of coffee beans, especially during the rapid growth phase. The depletion of stocks from the previous crop year and the coffee shortage since May have made supply more limited than ever. This situation is expected to continue to worsen in the coming months, creating increasing pressure on coffee prices.

Against this backdrop, the European Commission's (EC) proposal to postpone the implementation of the new regulation banning the import of goods that cause deforestation could have some impact. This delay could help reduce pressure on coffee exports to the EU and decrease demand from importers, leading to lower coffee prices in both international and domestic markets. However, this impact is likely to be temporary, as coffee demand remains high, and limited supply will be the determining factor in future pricing.

Coffee production is projected to decrease by 5-15% in the 2024-2025 crop year, mainly due to unfavorable weather and the El Niño phenomenon. This could lead to higher coffee prices due to insufficient supply to meet demand. However, coffee prices have already risen recently, which could reduce consumption demand, thereby putting downward pressure on prices in the coming months. Domestic coffee prices are currently higher than in 2023, and if consumers reduce their purchases, it will lead to decreased consumption and further pressure on coffee prices.

Overall, the coffee market faces numerous challenges in the coming period. Scarce supply, strong demand, and the impact of climate change will create increasing pressure on prices. Adjusting production, managing supply, and finding alternative solutions will be urgent issues that the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to address to adapt to the complex changes in the market.