Commodity market 5/13: Optimistic sentiment spreads across...

In the agricultural market, according to MXV, the agricultural market reacted early to the results of the tariff negotiations. In particular, soybean prices jumped sharply by 1.85% to 393 USD/ton in yesterday's session. Notably, two finished products, soybean meal and soybean oil, also increased sharply, respectively by 1.36% to 328 USD/ton and 2.78% to 1,100 USD/ton.

The focus of the market yesterday was none other than the outcome of the negotiations between the US and China that took place on Saturday, May 10 in Geneva, Switzerland. After months of trade tensions, the agreement of the world's two largest economies to reduce import tariffs for 90 days fueled optimism in the market.

According to the official announcement, the two largest economies have reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on imported goods from the other country. Currently, the US tariff on goods from China has been reduced from 145% to 30%; for China, the reduction is from 125% to 10%. This is a significant reduction, opening up great expectations for agricultural exports, especially soybeans, in the coming time.

The soybean price rally was further reinforced after the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its May WASDE report with a series of positive figures. Accordingly, the old crop ending stocks fell to more than 9.53 million tons, lower than market expectations, while the new crop inventories started at more than 8.03 million tons, down 16% compared to the previous year and significantly lower than the average forecast of analysts.

Instead of sharply reducing exports as previously feared, USDA only slightly lowered its export forecast to 952,500 tons, while crushing consumption was raised by 1.9 million tons, reflecting a still positive outlook for domestic consumption. At the same time, the average selling price expected by farmers was also adjusted up by 30 cents to $376.63/ton for the new crop.

Globally, USDA continues to see Brazil’s soybean production reach a record high of 175 million tons in 2025-2026, cementing its position as the world’s leading exporter. At the same time, China’s soybean imports are forecast to increase to 112 million tons, reflecting strong demand in this market.

However, global soybean inventories are forecast by the USDA to increase to 124.33 million tons, indicating that supplies remain ample and are a factor that needs to be monitored. Notably, China is accelerating its roadmap to reduce the use of soybean meal in animal feed, with a target of reducing it to below 13% by 2025 and only 10% by 2030. This trend could reduce China's soybean import pressure in the coming crop years, thereby affecting the global supply-demand balance.

For the two finished products, soybean oil prices led the trend of the whole group when they increased sharply by 2.78% in the last session. This increase was mainly due to the information that the 45Z tax credit package for biofuels in the US is likely to be extended until 2031, thereby continuing to boost the demand for soybean oil as a feedstock for biodiesel production.

For the industrial raw material group, contrary to the general trend in the market, the industrial raw material group experienced a less positive trading session when most of the key items in the group decreased in price. In particular, the price of Arabica coffee lost nearly 4% to 8,222 USD/ton, the price of Robusta coffee also decreased by more than 3% to 5,052 USD/ton.

According to MXV, coffee prices were under strong downward pressure in the last session, mainly due to the soaring USD after the US-China trade agreement, along with the prospect of continued positive supply.

The DXY index jumped sharply yesterday, reaching a one-month high, pushing the USD/BRL exchange rate up 0.26%, thereby boosting export activities in Brazil.

On the supply side, Safras & Mercado’s latest revision released over the weekend raised its forecast for Brazil’s 2024-25 coffee production to 65.51 million 60-kg bags, up 4.9% from the 62.45 million bags forecast in December. Safras & Mercado said more favorable weather conditions in January and February were the main factor behind the upward revision. This forecast is also in line with the organization’s estimate released in mid-April.

Of which, robusta coffee output is expected to reach about 25 million bags, up 4.16% compared to the December forecast, while arabica output is raised to 40.46 million bags, up 1.15% compared to mid-April and up 5.5% compared to December. Previously, Conab also adjusted up its forecast for Brazil's arabica coffee output to 37 million bags from the 34.7 million bags forecast at the beginning of the year, while raising total coffee output to 55.7 million bags compared to 51.8 million bags in the January forecast.

In addition, according to Succafina, farmers in Brazil’s main Robusta growing regions began harvesting coffee for the 2025-2026 crop year in late April, slightly later than last year. Field surveys show that the two states of Espírito Santo and Bahia continue to lead in production, with this year’s harvest forecast to exceed previous seasons thanks to favorable weather conditions and high yields. To date, there have been no major disruptions in Brazil’s Robusta growing regions, with the country’s Robusta output expected to reach a record high.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-13-5-tam-ly-lac-quan-lan-toa-tren-thi-truong-hang-hoa-the-gioi-252371.html