Finding a feasible formula for Hanoi to build hundreds of kilometers of urban railway.

After 20 years of implementation, Hanoi only has two urban railway lines in operation: Cat Linh - Ha Dong and the elevated section from Nho Son to Hanoi Station. If construction continues as planned, it will be very difficult for Hanoi to complete its urban railway network as planned.

Following VietNamNet's article "The Formula for Building a 600km Metro in Hanoi," architect Tran Huy Anh, a standing member of the Hanoi Architects Association, wrote an article to share his thoughts and contribute to the development of Hanoi's urban railway network.

In reality, after 20 years of implementation, Hanoi currently only has two operational metro lines: the Cat Linh - Ha Dong line and the elevated section of the Nho Son - Hanoi station line. Therefore, if construction continues as planned, many believe it will be very difficult for Hanoi to complete its metro network as planned.

Train on the Nhon - Hanoi Station metro line. Photo: Hoang Minh

According to city leaders, instead of building individual lines as is currently the case, a comprehensive urban railway system should be developed as planned. Experts, however, suggest that to accelerate progress, resources must be concentrated and land resources effectively utilized. The central government should supplement Hanoi's budget and allow the city to base its decisions on the approved Capital City Master Plan or specialized plans as the basis for investment policies and decisions regarding urban railway projects.

Hanoi also needs to plan its urban railway system according to the TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) orientation, at a scale of 1/2000, to manage and reserve land for urban railway development and urban development within the TOD area. According to the Capital City Law, TOD stands for urban development oriented towards public transportation.

However, it can be seen that the content of the two draft Capital City Planning and the revised General Capital City Planning (submitted in 2024) does not specify where land reserves should be set aside for investment in urban railways. In reality, the Hoa Lac satellite city, after 20 years (2004-2024), has received billions of USD in infrastructure investment but has only reached less than 5% of its projected population (30,000 people compared to 600,000 people).

In 2016, the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) published a study on this metro line stating that all land along the route had been allocated, leaving no land available for the remaining 38km of metro construction. With a total investment of US$2.8 billion and a projected 400,000 passengers per day, the investment would only be recouped after 48 years of operation (2016-2064). The economic internal rate of return (EIRR) was 10.9%, lower than 12%. The financial internal rate of return (FIRR) was negative due to the large investment and insufficient revenue from ticket sales.

The planning does not follow conventional principles.

In 2020, the Japan Metro Association published the book "Metro of the World ," which provided information on 66 metro networks in cities across Europe, Asia, Africa, America, and Australia. Cities with similar scale and topography to Hanoi share a common model of radial and circular metro networks. Some cities even have two concentric circles (Beijing, Singapore) and intersecting circles to optimize the connection of metro lines heading in different directions.

Compare the urban rail network diagrams of 9 cities across 5 continents with the diagram of Hanoi's 14 urban rail lines.

Meanwhile, the 12-line urban railway plan for Hanoi in the Capital City Planning shows a high density but is fragmented, lacking connectivity, and has an unbalanced distribution of the network between the North and South banks of the Red River. Therefore, it needs to be replaced with a "3 radial lines and 2 connecting circles" option to maximize the use of existing infrastructure, achieve high investment efficiency, and attract investment from society. The urban transport system should be multimodal: urban railway as the main mode, integrating express buses, regular buses, minibuses, ride-hailing motorbikes, bicycles, and pedestrians…

Multi-objective integration offers overall benefits.

In an article, Mr. Nguyen Cao Minh, Head of the Hanoi Urban Railway Management Board (MRB), stated that Hanoi is facing a historic opportunity to implement TOD (Transit-Oriented Development) in its long-term urban development strategy.

This policy not only optimizes land use but also reduces traffic congestion, decreases emissions, and improves the quality of public spaces, which is key to increasing land value and facilitating the development of new economic centers.

Despite recognizing the need for multi-purpose integration in urban rail investment, MRB is currently the investor in the Hanoi - Hoang Mai urban rail project, spanning 8.7km with an estimated total investment of VND 40,570 billion (approximately USD 1.752 billion). Although the investment cost exceeds USD 200 million/km, higher than the World Bank's recommendation in the Urban Rail Planning Handbook, the projected passenger volume is lower than the investment warrants.

In particular, the final section, which leads into the area of ​​lakes, ponds, and old villages, is very sparsely populated… while the final station's location is yet to be determined because it borders land already allocated for a real estate project and the Yen So pumping station.

Forecasts indicate very few train passengers will travel on the route from Hanoi Station to Hoang Mai. The proposal to change the route to increase passenger numbers also offers many benefits from the underground space.

With an investment of $1.752 billion, the project could build over 8km of underground metro line and add an underground road bridge across the Red River to Gia Lam station, bringing many benefits: increased passenger traffic (20,000 - 40,000 trips/day), Hanoi gaining another road bridge across the Red River, and creating valuable underground space in the city center.

With the revenue from "transfer of operating rights" (TDR) to investors in underground parking lots, underground commercial and service streets, underground utility lines and pipelines, etc., Hanoi has "more than enough money" to invest in the entire section of this route.

With the alternative approaches presented, Hanoi could find a feasible "formula" to build 100km of urban railway by 2030 and hundreds more kilometers in the subsequent phase.

Hanoi tackles the challenge of mobilizing nearly $50 billion to build 600km of urban railway.

Hanoi plans to mobilize nearly $50 billion USD to build 600km of urban railway between now and 2045. To save on total investment and maintenance costs, these railway lines will be ensured to meet standardized technical specifications.

Hanoi presents plan to complete nearly 400km of urban railway.

The Hanoi People's Committee aims to complete the construction of 96.8km and finalize investment preparation for 301km of urban railway by 2030, with a total investment of US$14.602 billion. The entire urban railway line is expected to be completed by 2035.

Solutions to complete hundreds of kilometers of urban railway in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City.

Experts believe that completing the urban railway network in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will not take hundreds of years, and the timeframe can be shortened without the need for foreign loans.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/tim-cong-thuc-kha-thi-de-ha-noi-lam-hang-tram-km-duong-sat-do-thi-2332557.html