On the afternoon of January 26, in Hanoi , the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting held a "Press information workshop on forecasting hydro-meteorological trends in 2024 and implementing a plan to coordinate information between hydro-meteorological agencies and press agencies."

In his opening speech, Deputy Director General of the General Department of Hydrometeorology Hoang Duc Cuong said that 2023 was the hottest year in the past 174 years; many major natural disasters occurred in the world and the region, with wide-ranging impacts, exceeding historical levels, causing very serious damage to people and property.

In Vietnam, although there were few storms and not much rain, there was still a record 24-hour rain period causing flooding in Thua Thien Hue, Da Nang and Quang Nam . Notably, in 2023, there were 20 heat waves, especially in Tuong Duong (Nghe An), the highest temperature was observed at 44.2 degrees on May 7, 2023. This is the highest daily temperature value ever observed in the country.

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In 2023, our country will experience 20 heat waves. Illustration photo: Hoang Ha

Reporting at the workshop, Deputy Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting Hoang Phuc Lam added that last year in Vietnam, the average temperature nationwide was 1.09 degrees higher than the average of many years (TBNN) and was recorded as the year with the second highest temperature in the series of monitoring data (2019 was the year with the average temperature nationwide higher than the TBNN by 1.21 degrees).

Also in this year, there were 8 tropical cyclones in the East Sea, including 5 storms and 3 tropical depressions. The number of storms/tropical depressions active in the East Sea was less than the average. In particular, the storms almost never made landfall directly, so they did not cause strong winds inland.

In 2023, there were 24 cold spells, less than the average (average about 29-30 spells). In Mau Son (Lang Son) on December 22, 2023, the lowest temperature dropped to -2.5°C, the lowest temperature in the same period in December according to data recorded in Mau Son from 2012 to present.

The cold air is strong, the hot season comes early

Commenting on the natural disaster trend in 2024, Dr. Hoang Phuc Lam said that according to forecasts, the El Nino phenomenon will appear from mid-2023 and will continue until April 2024 with a probability of over 90%. After that, El Nino will weaken and have about a 60% chance of transitioning to a neutral phase in the period from May to July 2024 and about a 50-60% chance of transitioning to La Nina by the end of 2024.

According to Mr. Lam, if the above developments occur, in 2024, it is important to note that storm and tropical depression activities will be more concentrated in the second half of the storm season. There may be more storms/tropical depressions forming in the East Sea.

"The heat wave phenomenon in the Southern region, the Northwestern region, the North and the Central region is likely to come earlier and appear more frequently than the average year," Mr. Lam emphasized.

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Strong cold air causes severe cold and the possibility of ice and snow. Photo of frost on Mau Son peak during the cold spell on January 25: Kim Huyen

Regarding cold air and severe cold, Mr. Lam predicted that after the strong cold air at the end of January, the cold air is forecast to be weaker than the average, so the possibility of severe cold in February-March 2024 is lower than the average for the same period.

"However, it is necessary to be on guard against strong cold spells , especially in February 2024, which can cause widespread cold and frost and the risk of ice and snow in the mountainous areas of the North. In addition, light rain and drizzle in the North during the 2023-2024 Winter-Spring season are likely to occur more frequently than the average," Mr. Lam noted.

In addition, the meteorological agency also warned of the risk of water shortages in the first half of 2024 in the Northern, Central, Central Highlands and Southern regions. At the same time, the salinity intrusion in the Mekong Delta in the 2023-2024 dry season is higher than the average.

Weather for the Lunar New Year of Giap Thin: The North is likely to have cold air . About 10 days before Tet, the North is likely to have sunshine up to 25 degrees. From February 6-12 (ie December 27 to the 3rd day of Tet), there will be cold air, but there is little chance of severe cold, drizzle.