Week of expectations!

At the beginning of the week (July 7), pepper prices in the domestic market increased in key localities, fluctuating from 145,000 - 150,000 VND/kg compared to the previous week. During the past week (from July 7 to July 13), pepper prices fluctuated up/down and by the end of the week (July 13), pepper prices were generally in the range of 153,000 - 154,000 VND/kg.

Pepper prices are currently around 153,000 - 154,000 VND/kg.

It can be seen that in recent days, the market has been constantly fluctuating with a slight adjustment pace in localities. Although pepper prices have been adjusted slightly, they have not yet reached people's expectations. Many people believe that with this slow price adjustment, the price will hopefully increase steadily and sustainably.

"Pepper prices in September will go up to around 200,000 VND/kg, people should stock up and not sell", information was shared on the pepper forum and it was emphasized that "risk is the key to profit".

Prices are considered to be at their highest in the past 10 years, however, farmers are not in a hurry to sell, only selling a portion to pay wages and reinvest, the rest is waiting for higher prices.

Pepper productivity has decreased due to climate change and the pepper growing area has been reduced, replaced by other plants with higher economic value. The pepper growing area in Dak Lak has decreased by more than 2,500 hectares compared to 2022, to about 28,600 hectares.

In 2024, global pepper consumption is expected to reach 529,000 tons, exceeding production by 64,000 tons. Farmers still expect pepper prices to reach VND200,000/kg to sell most of them, due to stable income from other crops. With the current shortage of supply, pepper prices are forecast to continue to increase in the coming time.

A representative of a large export enterprise said that pepper prices are in an increasing cycle and may reach new peaks depending on the time. However, no cycle lasts forever, so both people and enterprises must anticipate the possibility that pepper prices will cool down to adjust production and business activities effectively, avoiding widespread expansion of acreage or signing contracts to buy and sell far away, which can easily lead to risks.

The Import-Export Department ( Ministry of Industry and Trade ) also forecast that the increase in pepper prices will slow down, but prices will remain high due to limited supply and increased demand. In producing countries such as Brazil, Indonesia and Vietnam, this year's crop output is forecast to decrease.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of Vietnam, Vietnam's pepper growing area in 2023 will reach 120,000 hectares, with an output of 190,000 tons. It is estimated that pepper output in 2024 will continue to decrease to 170,000 tons, the lowest level in the past 5 years.

Domestic and world pepper prices on the morning of July 13

The latest world pepper prices are updated from the International Pepper Association. The pepper price converted to VND/kg by Giacaphe.com is based on the Vietcombank exchange rate at 7am on July 13. The price of Indonesian black pepper is at 183,593 VND/kg; the price of Malaysian black pepper is at 190,950 VND/kg; the price of Vietnamese black pepper 500 g/l is at 152,760 VND/kg, and the price of 550 g/l black pepper is at 168,036 VND/kg. Thus, the domestic pepper price is lower than the world pepper price.