Did Ukraine put too much hope in Tomahawk missiles only to be disappointed?

US President Donald Trump announced the provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but is Kiev expecting too much from this “game-changing” weapon once again?

On October 6, US President Donald Trump said he had made a decision to supply long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, but refused to reveal the specifics of that decision. Responding to Trump's statement, Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the US transfer of Tomahawk cruise missiles could force Russia to reconsider the real situation and sit at the negotiating table.

According to the Kyiv Independent, on October 8, Mr. Zelensky declared, “The United States can give Ukraine something that has a profound impact,” and will significantly strengthen Kiev’s position in future negotiations. Kiev’s clear message through President Zelensky’s statement is that they “put their full trust in the Tomahawk missile.”

“Right now it is important to send a signal that Ukraine will be strengthened in every possible way. And one of the important things for me is the Tomahawk missiles. All these things can strengthen Ukraine, and force the Russians to sober up a little, to sit at the negotiating table,” the Ukrainian leader stressed.

However, analysts say that Kiev is “too optimistic too soon”, when they also put their faith in Western weapons that can “change the thinking of the Russians”. There are a series of weapons from missiles, tanks to fighter planes, but all of those weapons have brought disappointment, not only to the Ukrainian army but also to customers of Western weapons.

“Ukraine is too dependent on Western weapons, believing that they will definitely help it “defeat the Russians”. However, as the experience of the conflict shows, they have never made a significant difference. Therefore, Kiev should not assume that American Tomahawk missiles, if delivered, will change the situation on the battlefield”.

The statement was made by former US Permanent Representative to NATO, Douglas Lute. The retired US Army Lieutenant General believes that US missiles will not help Kiev win, just as the anti-tank guided missiles, tanks and fighter jets delivered to Kiev did not do that.

According to Mr. Lute, the US has gradually increased military aid to Ukraine since the beginning of the conflict, starting with Javelin anti-tank missiles and Stinger man-portable air defense systems, and eventually culminating in the transfer of F-16 fighter jets, albeit through its European allies.

And each time, Kiev pinned its hopes on the new weapon, hoping that it would help defeat Russia on the battlefield. Now the same situation is happening with the Tomahawk missiles, on which a decision has not even been made. Ukraine once again claims that it will be able to "defeat Russia" as soon as it receives them.

“Remember, it started with Javelins and Stingers, then moved on to artillery, tanks, and most recently attack drones and F-16s. None of that has changed the situation on the battlefield,” Lute said.

According to General Lute, if Kiev wants to defeat Moscow, it needs to develop and produce its own missiles, instead of relying on allies. Moreover, it has some good designs, much better than the outdated American Tomahawk missiles, with their very complex guidance systems.

Meanwhile, Western media noted that Russia’s warnings about the possibility of transferring Tomahawk missiles to Kiev are becoming increasingly fierce. The West sees this as a “repetition of tactics” that Moscow used during the armed conflict in Ukraine.

The Kremlin has warned that the transfer of Tomahawks to Ukraine would escalate the conflict. Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that if Washington sent Tomahawks to Kiev, this would mark a "new stage of escalation", and could undermine all the progress that has been made in Russia-US relations recently.

The Washington Post believes that this shows Moscow's concern about Ukraine's access to long-range weapons. Moreover, if Trump does indeed give Ukraine the green light to buy Tomahawk missiles, it would be a significant change in his policy towards the Ukraine crisis.

Meanwhile, the Netherlands is likely to buy Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine. In April this year, the US and the Netherlands signed a deal to supply Amsterdam with 175 of these missiles for $2.19 billion. According to Western media, the Dutch government announced that it would buy Tomahawk Block IV/V missiles for installation on its frigates and submarines.

While only the land-based version of the Typhon missile is suitable for transfer to the Ukrainian military, it is unlikely that President Trump will approve the transfer of these weapons to the Netherlands or another European NATO member at some point. (photo source Kyiv Independent, Ukrinform, TASS, Wikipedia).

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