Ukraine can breathe a sigh of relief with Polish election results

Poland's election ended with the victory of Donald Tusk, who has always supported Ukraine, over the far-right, which has shown a hard line towards Kiev recently.

The political situation in Poland after the general election became clear after the Election Commission announced the final results on October 18, confirming that the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) had lost its majority in parliament when it won only 35.38% of the votes, equivalent to 190 seats out of a total of 460 parliamentarians.

The leading opposition party, the Civic Alliance (KO) of Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council, and its two allies, the Third Way (TD) and the New Left (NL), won around 250 seats. According to the rules, coalitions that win more than a majority of the Polish parliament's seats are allowed to form a new government .

Donald Tusk addresses supporters on October 15, after preliminary results showed his coalition won the election. Photo: AFP

With this result, PiS lost the power it had held for the past 8 years, ceding the right to form a government to a coalition of three opposition parties with centrist and leftist political positions, when they became the new majority in the Polish parliament.

PiS has failed to attract other parties to form a coalition because of deep disagreements over its political stance that is unfriendly to some of the common values ​​of the European Union (EU) regarding checks on power, the judicial system and anti-abortion laws.

The far-right Union of Freedom and Independence, which won just 7.16% of the vote, has said from the start that it has no intention of joining a coalition with PiS. Even if the party changes its mind, it will not be able to help PiS regain a majority to form a government.

Observers say the election results could help Kiev breathe a sigh of relief about the future of relations with Warsaw, as the Polish government under PiS takes an increasingly tough stance on Ukraine.

Poland was one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in the early stages of the war. But in recent months, PiS has dramatically reversed its stance toward Kiev. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has advocated a boycott of Ukrainian agricultural products and announced a halt to arms deliveries to Kiev. President Andrzej Duda, a ruling party ally, has compared Ukraine to a “drowning man,” suggesting that Kiev should be more appreciative of Warsaw’s support.

The main factor driving this change was the recent general election, when PiS faced pressure to gain votes from the far-right, which is nationalist and has taken a hard line on Ukraine, according to Max Brandle, director of the Warsaw branch of the German think tank Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung (FES).

PiS is forced to compete with the far-right Union of Freedoms and Independence among voters tired of the war in Ukraine, as well as among those unhappy with the nearly one million refugees arriving from its eastern neighbor. Statements about blocking Ukrainian agricultural exports to Poland or transiting through the country are also a tactic to strengthen the party’s position among rural voters.

"The fear of losing power in the election has pushed the PiS party to be ready to use any means to attract potential voter groups, including turning its back on Ukraine," Max Brandle assessed.

Even if this is a PiS tactic during the election season, Kiev still risks facing an unfriendly and unpredictable policy from Warsaw in a PiS victory scenario, as the right-wing party would have to honor its promises to voters. Conversely, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could be somewhat reassured by the Polish opposition coming to power.

"The opposition generally supports the Polish government's support for Ukraine, as well as its anti-Russian stance, increased defense spending, and continued reliance on NATO and the United States for security," said the Washington-based Atlantic Council policy think tank.

Polish PT-91 tanks take part in NATO exercises on May 13 in Nowa Deba. Photo: US Army

Donald Tusk, leader of the KO party, has called on President Andrzej Duda to quickly allow the winning party group to begin the process of forming a new government. The KO party's election platform recently supported maintaining support for Ukraine and opposed PiS "turning its back" on its eastern neighbor.

Mr Tusk was also one of the EU politicians who strongly supported Ukraine from the beginning of the war. On February 25, 2022, the day after Russia launched the war, he criticized EU governments such as Germany, Hungary and Italy for "shamelessly" refusing to immediately impose strong financial sanctions on Moscow.

In an interview with TVN24 ahead of the election, Mr Tusk reaffirmed that supporting Ukraine and maintaining good relations with Kiev is a "matter of life and death" for Poland. He stressed that Warsaw would benefit more by ensuring "Ukraine's independence" and helping its neighbor "be present in the European defense organization and community".

According to Yurii Banakhovych, a commentator for the Ukrinform website, the ruling coalition led by Mr. Tusk could also push Ukraine's efforts to join the EU, as they have a view on improving relations between Poland and the EU.

Over the years, Poland under PiS has had a tense relationship with the EU due to differences in values. PiS opposes EU interference in Poland’s judicial reform ambitions and anti-abortion regulations, which the EU condemns as a violation of personal freedoms.

This disagreement has kept Poland from participating much in discussions shaping the future of the EU, even though Mr. Tusk held the chair of the European Council from 2014 to 2019.

"The new Tusk government will significantly improve relations with Brussels, Germany and other European powers. Poland can participate more actively in the EU reform and enlargement discussions. Ukraine understands that Poland has an indispensable role in this process," said Piotr Buras, director of the Warsaw office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank.

Thanh Danh (According to Newsweek, Reuters )

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