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Ukraine may have missed the opportunity to launch a decisive counterattack.

VnExpressVnExpress12/01/2024


The Ukrainian commander wanted to launch a major counterattack at the end of 2022, when Russia had not yet consolidated its position, to deal a decisive blow, but was prevented by the US.

The large-scale counter-offensive campaign launched by Ukraine in early June 2023 failed, as its forces only recaptured a few villages with significant losses in manpower and combat vehicles, while failing to cut off the land corridor from the Crimean peninsula to western Russia.

In his book “Our Enemies Will Disappear,” Yaroslav Trofimov, a foreign affairs reporter for the Wall Street Journal , reveals that the Ukrainian military wanted to use the results of the blitzkrieg counteroffensive in the fall of 2022 to launch a new, decisive campaign to cut Russia’s land corridor in half. Had this campaign been carried out, it would likely have created a very different situation on the Ukrainian battlefield.

General Valery Zaluzhny, commander of the Ukrainian army, wants to launch a counteroffensive with deep thrusts in Zaporizhzhia province, towards the Sea of Azov by the end of 2022. In discussions with Western partners, both General Zaluzhny and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have supported the thrust towards the Azov coast.

They believed that this campaign would have a very high chance of success, because the Russian forces at that time had just suffered a series of consecutive defeats in Kharkov as well as the eastern front, had to continuously withdraw troops and had not yet had time to establish the Surovikin line with minefields, obstacles and dense fortifications.

Ukrainian armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia province in June 2023. Photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Ukrainian armored vehicles in Zaporizhzhia province in June 2023. Photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

The plan was considered a huge gamble at the time. The Ukrainian thrust would need to penetrate deep enough and wide enough to prevent Russian forces from counterattacking and outflanking the advancing units. But if successful, Ukraine could make the most of the momentum created by Russia’s heavy losses on the front line.

Ukrainian officials at the time did not make many big demands on the US side to launch this counterattack. General Zaluzhny estimated that Ukrainian forces only needed 90 more artillery pieces and enough ammunition for the attack.

Although it is difficult to assess whether these weapons are sufficient or not, if Ukraine can assemble a strong enough combat force, it can regain many territories through such a deep penetration campaign, as they did in Kharkov province.

The situation in Zaporizhzhia at the end of 2022 was considered ripe for a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive. Unlike Kherson Oblast, where the Dnieper River divides the territory in two, Zaporizhzhia Oblast had no such natural barriers, allowing the Ukrainian counteroffensive forces to advance further quickly.

But this plan was met with skepticism from US officials, because the Ukrainian army at that time had not demonstrated any large-scale offensive capabilities.

Some US officials are concerned that Ukraine’s advance into the Azov Sea coastal region, stretching from Berdyansk to Melitopol, could create gaps in the front line. Many also question the ability of Ukrainian brigades to coordinate their operations effectively.

In the eyes of American generals and politicians , the counterattack plan proposed by Ukraine has the potential to “cause a disaster”. If the counterattack fails, Ukraine could suffer a strategic loss, allowing Russia to seize the rest of Zaporizhzhia province and even neighboring Dnipro province.

With this skepticism, instead of supporting the bold campaign proposed by Kiev, the US wanted Ukraine to focus on another target for the counterattack, Kherson. This was considered a safer choice, with a lower risk level if the attack failed.

Kherson is the first and only major city in Ukraine that Russia has taken control of since fighting broke out in February 2022. The city is located on the west bank of the Dnieper River, and Russian forces stationed there rely entirely on bridges across the river to maintain their supply lines.

The situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Graphics: WP

The situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Graphics: WP

“The reason we want them to attack Kherson is because Ukraine doesn’t have the trained forces to go south. They could go after what they can’t in the south and be defeated,” said a senior Pentagon official.

General Zaluzhny disagreed with this US assessment. Aides said General Zaluzhny explained that the army "must strike where it is necessary, not where it is possible."

According to journalist Trofimov, General Zaluzhny was willing to accept high risks to launch a counter-offensive campaign in Zaporizhzhia, because it could bring great efficiency and contribute to deciding the war situation in 2022. However, because the US controls most of the military aid to Ukraine, General Zaluzhny's argument did not change the situation.

Ukraine then focused its resources on the city of Kherson. The Ukrainian army easily stormed the bridges over the Dnieper River, severely disrupting the supply line and threatening the Russian forces stationed in the city of Kherson.

Finally, under constant pressure from Ukrainian units, Russia was forced to withdraw from Kherson, retreating to the east bank of the Dnieper River to consolidate its defenses. After the Ukrainian army recaptured Kherson, their advance also slowed down due to obstacles from the Dnieper River.

The Pentagon in November 2022 hailed Ukraine's recapture of the city of Kherson after a lightning offensive in Kharkiv province as a "significant achievement." The US military said it was "an impressive result that shows Ukraine is not relying on luck alone to stop the Russian military."

The Ukrainian army then had to wait more than six months to launch an offensive in Zaporizhzhia province, much later than Mr. Zaluzhny had originally planned.

This time, the Russian forces were better prepared. Ukraine sent several brigades trained in NATO tactics, using tanks and combat vehicles donated by the West. However, the counterattack was stopped by the Russian defenses.

The capabilities of the defense line that Russia established in late 2022 and early 2023 were one of the main reasons why Ukraine's large-scale counteroffensive failed. Western experts believe that if Ukraine had attacked earlier, Russia's defense line would not have been so large and solid.

Ukrainian soldiers stand on a Leopard 2A6 tank in Zaporizhzhia province in June 2023. Photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

Ukrainian soldiers stand on a Leopard 2A6 tank in Zaporizhzhia province in June 2023. Photo: Ukrainian Ministry of Defense

After the losses in personnel and equipment, Ukraine was forced to abandon some NATO-style tactics, not using heavy armor and sending troops slowly in small groups with artillery support to attack Russian lines. This tactic could not make any major changes on the battlefield.

As Ukraine moves into a defensive position during the winter, many experts have criticized the West’s approach to how its forces operate. “I agree with the criticism that throughout the war, the United States was too conservative and did not create the conditions for Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield,” said George Barros, an expert at the Institute for the Study of War in the United States.

According to Mr. Barros, the perception of American generals and political leaders has caused some of Ukraine's opportunities to collapse, especially the delay in transferring heavy weapons.

"The US has delayed the delivery of M1 Abrams tanks, ATACMS missiles and F-16 fighters to Ukraine," Barros said. "They will only arrive in late 2023 or early 2024, when they need them most in 2022."

Nguyen Tien (According to BI, Reuters, AFP )



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