Coffee exports are not expected to resume from October 2024.

Due to dwindling supplies, Vietnam's coffee supply will only increase in October, when the new harvest begins, helping coffee exports to rebound.

Latest information from Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), prices of two items coffee Prices surged at the start of the week's trading session. Arabica coffee prices rose 2.38% to $5,167.63 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices increased 3.89% to $4,348 per ton, marking the third consecutive positive trading session. Market focus is on concerns about potential coffee supply shortages in Vietnam.

The current crop of coffee is gradually running out, leading to a decline in monthly export figures. Meanwhile, the supply of coffee from the new crop is expected to decrease compared to the current crop, reaching its lowest level in many years due to the impact of drought earlier this year.

According to Reuters, Vietnam's coffee production for the 2024-2025 season could fall by as much as 16% compared to the current season due to extreme heat in the Central Highlands coffee-growing region from March to early May. This means the new crop's yield is likely to be the lowest in 13 years.

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's coffee exports in June were estimated at only 85,000 tons, a sharp decrease of 40% compared to the same period in 2023 and the third consecutive month of decline. Overall, in the first half of 2024, Vietnam exported only 902,000 tons of coffee, a decrease of nearly 11% compared to the same period last year.

Traders believe that the sluggish export situation and supply shortages in Vietnam could last until November this year, when the new crop begins to be harvested.

On the domestic market, as of this morning (July 9th), the price of bulk green coffee beans in the Central Highlands and Southern provinces has increased sharply, bringing the domestic coffee purchase price to 125,900 – 127,100 VND/kg.

Vietnam's coffee exports are expected to gradually decrease in July, August, and September.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA) forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will gradually decrease in July, August, and September due to dwindling supply. It will not be until October, when the new coffee harvest begins, that Vietnam's coffee supply will increase again.

Vietnam's coffee supply is insufficient, while speculators are beginning to hoard goods, so coffee prices are forecast to continue rising in the third quarter. In addition, reduced coffee supply from major exporting countries worldwide due to weather conditions, such as Brazil, will likely lead to further price increases in the coming period, according to VICOFA.

These factors are expected to bring "joy" to coffee farmers. Compared to the times when coffee prices fluctuated between 30,000 and 40,000 VND/kg in previous years, current coffee prices have tripled and are considered a golden season for coffee. With high prices, many farmers are enthusiastically increasing investment in fertilizers, improving their gardens, and expanding their planting areas... in order to increase production.

According to the latest report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in the first half of this year, Vietnam exported approximately 902,000 tons of coffee, earning $3.22 billion. Compared to the same period last year, the volume of coffee exports decreased by 10.5%, but the export value increased sharply by 34.6% due to a 50.4% increase in the average export price of coffee compared to the same period in 2023.

In total, coffee prices increased by 320% from the beginning to the end of the season. This brought joy to coffee growers but caused significant difficulties for exporters and customers worldwide due to high prices and scarce supply.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/xuat-khau-ca-phe-se-chi-tang-tro-lai-tu-thang-10-2024-3307988.html