Kursk Campaign Failed, Mercenaries Suffered Heavy Losses

Kiev's ambitious plan to regain a new foothold in Russia's Kursk region, ahead of Victory Day on May 9, has failed, as the Ukrainian army (AFU) suffered heavy losses and failed to achieve its political or military goals.

Despite initial attempts to capture border villages and advance towards the important town of Grushkovo, the Ukrainian offensive was largely repelled by Russian forces (RFAF), which destroyed enemy logistics and reinforcements in the rear areas.

Ukraine’s military and political leadership, hoping to disrupt Russia’s 80th Victory Day celebrations, seized parts of the Grushkovsky district of Kursk Oblast, including the strategic town of Tetkino. The plan included isolating the battlefield by destroying the bridge over the Semme River and mining the southern bank, in order to gain a bargaining chip in future negotiations.

However, after suffering more than 2,000 casualties and losing dozens of tanks and armored vehicles, including those supplied by the West, the AFU has failed to control any significant part of Russian territory. As of May 12, the only remaining AFU presence is believed to be a narrow strip of forest 800 meters deep near Tetkino, stretching about 5 kilometers along the border, far from the 1,300 square kilometers of Kursk territory it controlled last August.

According to battlefield information from both sides, the intensity of AFU attacks decreased sharply after May 9, partly due to the failure of political objectives, but also due to fierce counterattacks by the RFAF, which caused heavy losses to the AFU.

One of the main factors contributing to this slowdown was the disruption of key supply routes, including AFU’s attempt to repair a dam near the border, before it was destroyed by Russian FPV UAVs and artillery.

The RFAF also did a good job of eliminating reinforcements, such as the AFU bridge engineering vehicle that was destroyed during road repairs, preventing the AFU from quickly restoring much-needed supplies. Russian FPV UAVs swarmed the skies, chasing AFU commandos attempting to cross the border on four-wheel drive vehicles or on foot, posing a huge threat to the Ukrainian commandos.

Despite the losses, the AFU General Staff continued to deploy troops to test attacks from different directions. In the Tetkino area, Russian air forces repelled repeated mechanized attacks, while Ukrainian infantry were often destroyed by artillery and FPV UAV attacks before they could reach Russian positions.

Near Novy Put and Zarya, several Ukrainian mechanized forces, including Leopard tanks and M109 Paladin howitzers, were destroyed in the fighting. Several Ukrainian commandos were intercepted and killed by RFAF artillery and FPV UAVs near the Ukrainian border villages of Belaya Balka and Bessalovka.

With key bridges and roads in the rear destroyed, the AFU was forced to use makeshift river crossings and quickly became a target of Russian attacks. In addition, Russian UAVs and artillery disrupted AFU concentrations in the Sumy border villages of Pavlovka, Budki, and Ryzhivka, making a sustained offensive almost impossible.

The AFU's losses, as their offensive faltered, forced the AFU commander to deploy Western mercenaries to the Kursk front, to carry out cross-border raids, to support his poor combat performance.

According to Russian military sources, mercenary groups from Poland, Lithuania, Denmark and the United Kingdom have been detected operating in the operational area of the Northern Group of Forces (Sever Group) of the RFAF, in the northern border region of Ukraine; although the activities of these mercenary groups remain limited.

Western private military companies (PMCs) are believed to have been called in to support the AFU, as it has suffered heavy losses and failed to achieve its objectives. The PMC units include: ASBS Othago (Poland) – which has been operating in Ukraine since at least 2014. European Security Academy (Poland) – which provides training and tactical support. Iron Navy (Estonia) – which specializes in sabotage and reconnaissance. Rae LT (Lithuania) – Another group with ties to the Baltics and suspected NATO links. G4S (UK) and G4F (Denmark) – Subsidiaries of the British security group, which have previously been involved in conflict zones around the world

While these mercenary groups are not large enough to change the balance on the battlefield, they could be used for sabotage, reconnaissance, or training of Ukrainian strike forces – similar to how Ukrainian special operations forces (SSOs) spearheaded the AFU counteroffensive in August 2022.

Despite the presence of Western mercenaries in Kursk, the RFAF maintained the advantage for the following reasons: Massive firepower and advantages in various types of UAVs, making it almost impossible for the mercenaries to move freely. Destroying Ukrainian supply lines and leaving even the elite AFU troops stranded without reinforcements.

The heavy losses suffered by the Ukrainian regular army mean that PMCs are likely to be used in high-risk, low-impact missions rather than large-scale combat. The arrival of Western mercenaries has underscored Kiev’s growing desperation as the Kursk Offensive collapses.

However, without a major strategic shift or massive arms aid from the US and NATO, these mercenary forces will likely suffer the same fate as the AFU – being destroyed by the RFAF's fierce artillery and UAV attacks.

Kiev's "Second Kursk Operation" proved to be a strategic and tactical failure, achieving no major territorial or political gains, but suffering heavy losses in troops and equipment.