Vietnam is in the midst of a coffee harvest, but the output supplied to the international market has decreased sharply, leading to high coffee prices.
According to data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), coffee exports in the first half of November 2024 were only 20,933 tons of coffee, worth about 122 million USD, down 44.8% in volume but up 1.8% in value compared to the same period last year.
Of which, the main export is still Robusta coffee with 16,293 tons, turnover of over 80.67 million USD, with an average export price of 4,952 USD/ton (about 124.6 million VND/ton).
The average export coffee price in the first half of November (including processed coffee, Arabica coffee, decaffeinated coffee, etc.) was 5,818 USD/ton, only 37 USD/ton lower than the price in October 2024, which is the off-season month, and 1,764 USD/ton higher than in January 2024.
Accumulated from the beginning of the year to November 15, Vietnam exported over 1.17 million tons of coffee, with an export turnover of 4.7 billion USD, down 13.5% in volume but up 38.1% in value compared to the same period last year. Of which, Robusta exports were the mainstay, reaching 964,610 tons, with a turnover of 3.48 billion USD.
November and December are the peak harvest months for Vietnamese coffee, the world's largest source of Robusta coffee, but a sharp decrease in coffee export output is a very strange thing in the market.
On the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices closed on November 21 (Vietnam time) up 2.84% - 3.05% compared to the previous day. The January 2025 delivery period increased the most by 142 USD/ton, to 4,798 USD/ton (about 121 million VND/ton).
A coffee expert said that this year's coffee crop is not late causing shortages, but mainly due to high prices, export output has decreased.
Accordingly, green coffee beans in the Central Highlands are currently priced at 110,000 - 115,000 VND/kg, so trading is not strong.
"But the truth is that coffee output has decreased sharply due to the gardens being intercropped with many other crops, mainly durian. I have been to many coffee gardens and found that coffee yield has not decreased but the number of coffee trees in each garden has decreased," this expert commented.
This shows that in the short term, Robusta coffee prices will likely continue to remain high despite many macroeconomic factors showing the opposite, such as: total global coffee volume increasing, and the European anti-deforestation regulation (EUDR) being postponed for 1 year.
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