Stocks that benefit from exports, public investment and low interest rates could gain in price next year, according to experts.
At the "Follow the money flow" forum on the afternoon of November 9, experts said that Vietnam's economy in 2024 will be more positive because "the worst things have happened this year". Accordingly, macro monitoring organizations all gave a GDP growth scenario of 6-6.5%.
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh - Economist of Fulbright School of Public Policy and Management, analyzed that exports are the first indicator of recovery and will increase in the last 3 months of the year when large markets such as the US are reducing inventories. The next positive factor is the disbursement of public investment capital with a peak at the end of this year to early 2024. The continued loosening of monetary policy is also an important factor when the Government wants to maintain low interest rates to support economic growth.
With the above macro assessment, experts from securities companies and investment funds make forecasts about industry groups with good potential.
Ms. Hoang Viet Phuong - Director of SSI Research - believes that "recovery" will be the investment theme in the coming time. Investors can consider choosing industries that have had low business results this year but have a high probability of overcoming difficulties next year. She suggests two prominent industries: basic materials and retail. In addition, industries that benefit from export recovery, increased public investment disbursement and foreign direct investment (FDI) are also worth considering.
Sharing specifically about the industry groups that Vietcombank Securities Investment Fund (VCBF) is holding, Deputy Investment Director Nguyen Trieu Vinh also said that this fund is focusing on four groups: FDI, public investment, information technology and consumption. Recently, only the consumption group has not achieved good performance, but he believes there will be a lot of potential because people's income and shopping needs will return.
Meanwhile, based on the profit outlook, Ms. Nguyen Hoai Phuong, Investment Director and Managing Director of VinaCapital VESAF Fund, noted that investors need to observe more deeply the differentiation between enterprises. In fact, this year, the market has recorded a number of companies with very good business results and market share despite their industries having a large decline. She gave examples of FPT in the technology sector, PNJ in the retail sector, Gemadept (GMD) in the shipping sector or Kinh Bac (KBC) in the real estate sector.
In addition to analyzing growth potential, Ms. Nguyen Thi Phuong Lam - Director of Analysis at VDSC - suggested that investors can filter out stocks that are currently priced cheaply and are likely to be revalued next year. Among the industries with high profit growth prospects, industrial park real estate, banking, software services, durable consumer goods (textiles and garments), energy (oil and gas) and pharmaceuticals are the groups with cheap valuations.
Experts say that investors should combine many methods such as fundamental analysis, technical analysis, value investing, and growth investing to choose suitable stocks. However, in the investment process, Ms. Phuong said that each person needs to have self-discipline.
"Investors need to have a portfolio of stocks to monitor and pay close attention to the intrinsic value of the business to avoid falling into FOMO (missing out syndrome) or regret when the market fluctuates in the short term," said the Director of SSI Research.
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