Securities companies welcome opportunities at important threshold

The Vietnamese stock market is facing expectations of being upgraded, leading to opportunities opening up for market members, including securities companies.

Closer to the upgrade target

After many years of efforts, the Vietnamese stock market is facing an important threshold: the possibility of being upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market in the upcoming September 2025 review by FTSE and further by MSCI.

The road to emerging markets is getting closer. This opportunity is not simply a symbolic milestone for Vietnamese stocks, but will also bring billions of dollars in capital from foreign investors, opening up opportunities for leading stocks and leaving room for foreign investors.

Data from benchmark markets such as the UAE, Qatar and China show that foreign investors made net purchases 2-4 months before FTSE announced its approval for the upgrade, as well as the start of the transition process. For MSCI, foreign investors acted 4-5 months earlier, due to the scale of funds referenced by the index and the level of influence of MSCI compared to FTSE Russell.

The above signs seem to be happening in the Vietnamese stock market. On the HoSE, foreign investors have been net buyers for 8 consecutive sessions, with a net buying value of more than a thousand billion VND per session, focusing on leading stocks. Since the beginning of July 2025, foreign investors have net bought more than 11,500 billion VND on the HoSE, marking a strong return of foreign capital.

Recently, JPMorgan (the largest bank in the US) upgraded its rating on Vietnamese stocks to “overweight” (buy/increase the proportion) in its investment portfolio. JPMorgan also raised its forecast for the VN-Index this year to 1,500 - 1,600 points and said that the application of non-prefunding in November 2024 and the upgrade of the trading system will increase the possibility of Vietnam being upgraded to an emerging market by FTSE in the September 2025 review.

Along with large cash flows, positive sentiment and vibrant liquidity in the market are forecast to open up great opportunities for securities companies - the direct beneficiaries of the upgrading process.

Many new opportunities

Positive market sentiment has driven an increase in trading volume, which has helped increase profits from proprietary trading and margin lending activities of securities companies. At the end of the first quarter of 2025, 52% of financial investment assets of securities companies were used for proprietary trading activities, 48% were used for margin lending purposes. Proprietary trading still contributes the largest part to the gross profit of most securities companies.

SHS forecasts that the Vietnamese market could be allocated a weight of 0.3% in the FTSE EM Index basket. Total net inflows from ETFs and passive funds according to FTSE EM fluctuate around 0.5 - 1 billion USD. Inflows from active funds could be 5 times higher than those from passive funds, but it is difficult to estimate the exact figure due to the dependence on investment decisions of the funds.

Therefore, securities companies focusing on the institutional client segment, such as SSI Securities Corporation (SSI), Vietcap Securities Corporation (VCI) and Ho Chi Minh City Securities Corporation (HCM), will benefit from the deployment of margin-free services, along with the expected capital flow into the Vietnamese market.

Along with the advantages that large securities companies have, the excitement of the market also opens up opportunities for the entire industry. In particular, companies associated with private banks are expected to contribute significantly to the industry's profit growth in 2025 by leveraging their networks and capital from banks to expand margin lending activities, distribute bonds, and enjoy favorable market conditions.

“Not all financial institutions have the same opportunities in the upgrading process, but only those organizations that are well prepared in terms of business strategy, resources (human resources and capital) and technology infrastructure can take advantage of this upgrading wave in a sustainable way,” said Mr. Nguyen Duc Quan Tung, Member of the Board of Directors and General Director of OCBS Securities Joint Stock Company.

OCBS leaders added that the Company is repositioning itself as a professional investment banking and asset management model with three strategic spearheads: investment banking, capital trading and Wealth tech-oriented securities services. In addition, the comprehensive strategic cooperation with OCB Bank will help OCBS increase its competitiveness, have outstanding advantages in capital, technology capacity and product ecosystem.

Along with efforts to seize opportunities in the new period, the positive developments of leading securities stocks in the market also reflect high expectations of investors. Foreign investors have been net buyers of SSI shares since mid-June 2025, for 20 consecutive sessions (as of the end of the trading session on July 11). HCM shares have been net bought by foreign investors for 12 consecutive sessions. VCI shares hit the ceiling price on July 11 and attracted net foreign capital for 7 consecutive sessions...

Currently, the P/B and P/E ratios of securities stocks are increasing again after falling to the 10-year average. As of June 17, 2025, the P/B valuation of the securities industry is higher than the 10-year average, but still significantly lower than the highest level recorded, showing that the industry valuation is still attractive.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/cong-ty-chung-khoan-don-co-hoi-truoc-nguong-cua-quan-trong-d328934.html