Shark money appears after a week of being caught off guard

A week of "sweating"

During the week of October 16-20, investors witnessed sudden strong selling sessions in the late afternoon, catching many people off guard and negatively affecting market sentiment.

As of October 17, the stock market recorded a sell-off session at the end of the day with increased selling pressure in most stocks, including pillar stocks and mid-cap codes, including real estate groups such as Vinhomes, Vingroup and many banking codes.

The sudden drop of nearly 20 points after only 15 minutes of the last session (ATC session) was considered a "surprise attack" that swept away all efforts of the stock market to recover. The VN-Index fell to 1,122 points.

Stocks last week had many sessions of strong decline (Photo: Hoang Ha)

In the following session, on October 18, the VN-Index dropped by 33 points with real estate stocks being sold off, causing investors to sweat. Many codes became the focus of selling off, with a series of large codes falling sharply such as Vingroup (VIC), VHM (Vinhomes), DXG (Dat Xanh), Novaland (NVL), Phat Dat (PDR)...

In the session of October 19, the market again recorded a tug-of-war scenario during the session and then sold off strongly at the end of the session, causing the VN-Index to fall more than 15 points, to 1,087.85 points.

In the first 4 sessions of the week, the VN-Index lost a total of nearly 70 points.

It can be seen that negative sentiment covered the market in most sessions last week, with the exchange rate pressure increasing the most since the beginning of the year, coming from the US government bond interest rate approaching 5%, the highest in 18 months.

The central exchange rate announced by the State Bank continuously set new peaks, quickly reaching 24,100 VND/USD on October 19 and then 24,110 VND/USD in the last session of the week (October 20). The USD/VND exchange rate at commercial banks simultaneously reached 24,700 VND/USD (selling price) - the highest level since the beginning of the year, and only slightly lower than the record peak of 24,888 VND/USD recorded on October 25, 2022.

This is considered one of the factors that triggered the sell-off since the beginning of the week, causing all sectors to lose points. The domino effect of liquidation further prolonged the decline in the following sessions. At its peak, the VN-Index fell below the important support of the 200-day moving average (MA200) on Wednesday (October 18). Of which, the securities, real estate and retail stocks recorded the strongest declines.

The sudden declines late in the session were also seen as possibly due to proactive margin calls or deleveraging by some lenders.

However, by the afternoon of Friday (October 20), bottom-fishing demand appeared at 1,080 points, pulling the index back 32 points from the bottom, from a decrease of more than 10 points to an increase of more than 20 points. In particular, many stocks in the securities and real estate groups hit the ceiling.

At the end of the week, the VN-Index still recorded a decrease of 46.7 points, equivalent to a decrease of 4% compared to the end of last week. The HNX-Index decreased by 4.4% to 228.5 points and the Upcom-Index decreased by 2.6% to 85.6 points.

During the week of October 16-20, stocks that fell sharply and had a strong impact on the market included: Vingroup (-6%), BIDV (-4.7%), Vietcombank (-2.1%). On the other hand, Vietjet increased by 1.4%; LPBank increased by 2.5% and Eximbank increased by 1.4%.

What is the outlook for the new week?

Thus, in the last session of the week of October 20, the market reversed and increased quite strongly again. There were signals of money flow from domestic and foreign organizations returning to the stock market.

During the week of October 16-20, foreign investors returned to net buying on all three exchanges, with a total value of more than VND900 billion. Last week, foreign investors net sold VND1,900 billion.

In the session of October 20, securities companies' self-trading also net bought more than 500 billion VND, including E1VFVN30, Sacombank, Hoa Phat, Techcombank, FPT, PVS...

The VN-Index's return to the 1,100-point threshold has helped many investors breathe a sigh of relief. It shows that 1,070 points is an important support level for the correction.

Demand from organizations has contributed to a slight recovery in liquidity, with an average of VND 18,516 billion/session during the week, up 12.5% over the previous week.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Market Strategy Department, VnDirect Securities, said that the positive point that appeared in the last session of the week was that there was glimmer of information supporting the exchange rate.

Specifically, in a recent speech on monetary policy, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that he may continue to stop raising interest rates at the upcoming meeting in early November. This could curb the recent sharp increase in US government bond yields.

In addition, VPBank’s completion of a private placement of shares to Japanese investor SMBC worth $1.5 billion will help supplement foreign currency supply. At the same time, the continuous net buying by foreign investors during the down sessions last week was also a notable supporting factor for the market.

However, Mr. Hinh also noted that after the sudden selling sessions in the late afternoon of recent sessions, investors need to further observe the impact of this development on market trends in the coming sessions.

According to Construction Securities, the reversal session at the end of the week was very impressive. However, the volume did not really explode, plus the end of the week was still dominated by bearish candlesticks. However, the daily chart showed very positive signals. The VN-Index tested the support level of 1,080 points and showed that this is a very strong support level.

Globally, the factors that negatively affected investor sentiment have eased. The Israel-Hamas conflict has seen positive developments and has not had widespread impacts. Meanwhile, the Fed has become less hawkish, promising a cooling dollar.

On the listed market, many businesses reported strong profit growth such as the securities group and some banks, retail and technology businesses... Some businesses in difficult industries such as real estate also reported strong profit growth such as NLG, BGI, NDN...

Mr. Nguyen Duy Hung's SSI leads the securities industry, Mr. Hien's son makes a breakthrough . Mr. Nguyen Duy Hung's company leads the securities industry in terms of profit. Mr. Hien's son's SHS records a strong breakthrough. However, the market is performing badly and putting a lot of pressure on industry stocks.

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