Expected to continue rising

Experts predict prices will continue their upward trend this week, as the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has revised its forecast for the natural rubber shortage this year and warned that the shortage could extend into 2028.

World rubber prices

On the first day of the week, rubber prices on major exchanges saw a slight increase compared to the end of last week.

In the morning trading session on October 8th (Vietnam time), the price of RSS 3 rubber futures contracts for October 2024 delivery on the Osaka Stock Exchange (OSE) in Japan increased by 1.42%, reaching 432.5 yen/kg; the March contract also increased by 1.2%, reaching 404.5 yen/kg.

In Thailand, the world's largest rubber exporter, November rubber futures prices in Bangkok rose slightly by 0.2% compared to the end of last week, reaching 95.8 baht/kg.

China's Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) was closed from October 1-7 due to China's National Day holiday and will reopen for trading today (Tuesday, October 8). Specifically, the price of October 2023 rubber futures on the SHFE reached 16,425 yuan/tonne, up 0.8% (equivalent to an increase of 130 yuan/tonne) at the time of this survey at 7:01 AM.

According to expert Denis Low, the Malaysian domestic rubber market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with an upward trend this week, due to growing concerns about climate change as weather patterns appear to become more unpredictable, according to the Malaysian national news agency Bernama.

He said that prolonged rain in rubber-producing areas had hampered harvesting and reduced latex production.

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has revised its forecast for this year's natural rubber shortage and warned that the shortage could persist until 2028.

“ANRPC has lowered its forecast for natural rubber supply due to unfavorable weather conditions as the El Nino weather phenomenon shifts to La Nina, along with widespread leaf fall disease negatively impacting both yield and latex quality,” said Denis Low.

Meanwhile, the demand for natural rubber is trending upwards, leading to a sharp increase in its price recently.

However, according to Denis Low, economies are struggling to cope with high shipping costs and the volatility of the US dollar. The current geopolitical situation is also pushing the prices of some commodities beyond expectations while restraining the prices of others.

Traders are expected to cautiously monitor updates on the US and Chinese economies , particularly signals regarding interest rate cuts, the implementation of Chinese stimulus measures, developments in the European Union's Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

Domestic rubber prices

Domestic rubber prices remained stable on the first day of the week.

Accordingly, Mang Yang Rubber Company quoted the purchase price for liquid latex at 443-447 VND/TSC; and coagulated latex at 406-461 VND/DRC.

The Ba Ria Rubber Company's quoted price for liquid latex remained unchanged today at 440-450 VND/TSC. Meanwhile, the price of DRC coagulated latex with 35-44% content reached 15,700 VND/kg; raw latex fluctuated between 19,500-21,000 VND/kg.

Similarly, Phu Rieng Rubber Company quoted mixed latex at 430 VND/DRC; liquid latex at 470 VND/TSC. Binh Long Rubber Company quoted liquid latex at 386-396 VND/TSC; mixed latex (DRC = 60%) at 14,000 VND/kg.

Currently, the purchase price of rubber latex at companies has increased by about 50-60% compared to the beginning of the year and is at its highest level in many years.

Vietnam Rubber Industry Group (Code: GVR) announced that in the third quarter, the Group's production and business activities experienced many favorable conditions as rubber entered its main harvesting season of the year.

In addition, rubber prices are showing more positive signs of recovery than planned, thanks to an unusually low supply in major producing countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Indonesia. Furthermore, demand has increased from China and India.

Regarding business performance, in the first nine months of this year, GVR recorded consolidated revenue and other income of VND 16,207 billion, achieving 65% of the annual plan. After-tax profit was VND 2,386 billion, achieving 69% of the annual target.

For the third quarter alone, GVR's after-tax profit is estimated at VND 801 billion, an increase of 62% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

GVR estimates that for the whole year of 2024, consolidated revenue and other income could reach VND 26,307 billion, and after-tax profit could reach VND 3,746 billion.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/gia-cao-su-hom-nay-8-10-du-kien-tiep-tiep-tang-231177.html