Expected to continue to increase

Experts predict prices will continue their upward trend this week, with the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) revising its forecast for a natural rubber shortage this year and warning that the shortage could last until 2028.

World rubber price

Recorded on the first day of the week, rubber prices on key exchanges increased slightly compared to the end of last week.

In the morning trading session on October 8 (Vietnam time), the price of RSS 3 rubber contracts for October 2024 delivery on the Osaka Exchange (OSE) - Japan increased by 1.42% to 432.5 yen/kg; the contract for March delivery also increased by 1.2% to 404.5 yen/kg.

In Thailand – the world's largest rubber exporter, November rubber futures in Bangkok increased slightly by 0.2% compared to last weekend, at 95.8 baht/kg.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in China was closed from October 1 to 7 due to China's National Day holiday and will reopen for trading today (Tuesday, October 8). Specifically, the October 2023 rubber futures price on the SHFE exchange reached 16,425 yuan/ton, up 0.8% (equivalent to an increase of 130 yuan/ton) at the time of survey at 7:01 a.m.

Malaysia’s domestic rubber market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range with an upward trend this week, due to growing concerns over climate change as the weather appears to be becoming more unpredictable, said expert Denis Low, according to the Malaysian National News Agency (Bernama).

He said prolonged rains in rubber-producing areas have hampered tapping and reduced latex output.

The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) has revised down its forecast for a natural rubber shortage this year and warned that the shortage could last until 2028.

“ANRPC has lowered its forecast for natural rubber supply due to unfavourable climatic conditions as the El Nino weather phenomenon transitions to La Nina, coupled with widespread leaf fall disease that negatively impacts both rubber production and latex quality,” said Mr. Denis Low.

Meanwhile, the demand for natural rubber is on the rise, leading to a sharp increase in the price of this commodity in recent times.

However, economies are struggling to cope with high shipping costs and a volatile dollar, according to Denis Low. The current geopolitical situation is also pushing the prices of some commodities beyond expectations while holding down the prices of others.

Traders are expected to be cautiously monitoring updates on the US and Chinese economies , especially signals on interest rate cuts, the implementation of Chinese stimulus measures, developments on the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

Domestic rubber price

Rubber prices in the domestic market remained stable at the beginning of the week.

Accordingly, Mang Yang Rubber Company quoted the purchase price of liquid latex at 443 - 447 VND/TSC; coagulated latex reached 406 - 461 VND/DRC.

The price quoted by Ba Ria Rubber Company for latex today remains at 440 - 450 VND/TSC. Meanwhile, the price of DRC latex with 35 - 44% coagulation is 15,700 VND/kg; raw latex fluctuates at 19,500 - 21,000 VND/kg.

Similarly, Phu Rieng Rubber Company quoted the price of mixed latex at 430 VND/DRC; water latex reached 470 VND/TSC. Binh Long Rubber Company quoted the purchase price of water latex at 386 - 396 VND/TSC; the price of mixed latex (DRC = 60%) reached 14,000 VND/kg.

Currently, the purchase price of rubber latex at companies has increased by about 50-60% compared to the beginning of the year and is at the highest level in many years.

Vietnam Rubber Industry Group (Code: GVR) said that in the third quarter, the Group's production and business activities were favorable as rubber entered the main exploitation season of the year.

In addition, rubber prices have shown signs of recovery more positively than expected thanks to an unusual decline in supply in major producing countries in Southeast Asia such as Thailand and Indonesia. Furthermore, demand has increased from China and India.

Regarding business performance, in the first 9 months of this year, GVR recorded consolidated revenue and other income of VND16,207 billion, achieving 65% of the yearly plan. Profit after tax was VND2,386 billion, achieving 69% of the yearly target.

In the third quarter alone, GVR's after-tax profit is estimated at VND 801 billion, an increase of 62% compared to the third quarter of 2023.

GVR estimates that for the whole year of 2024, consolidated revenue and other income could reach VND 26,307 billion, with after-tax profit of VND 3,746 billion.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/gia-cao-su-hom-nay-8-10-du-kien-tiep-tuc-tang-231177.html