GDP Q1/2025: Vietnam leads ASEAN-6

To date, ASEAN-6 countries including Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines have announced their GDP growth results for the first quarter of 2025. According to data from the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's GDP in the first quarter of 2025 is estimated to increase by 6.93% over the same period last year, leading ASEAN-6.

Vietnam's GDP growth of 6.93% in the first quarter exceeded the target set in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP, but did not reach the higher target set in Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP dated February 5, 2025 due to many world movements affecting our country's socio -economic situation. The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector increased by 3.74%, contributing 6.09% to the total added value of the entire economy; the industry and construction sector increased by 7.42%, contributing 40.17%; the service sector increased by 7.70%, contributing 53.74%.

According to the latest report of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Asia- Pacific development prospects, experts assess that Vietnam's GDP will grow 6.6% in 2025 and 6.5% in 2026, after a strong increase of 7.1% last year. Of which, the service sector will grow 7.2% in 2025, thanks to increased domestic and international tourism as well as technology industries.

ASEAN-6 growth ranking in the first quarter of 2025. (Photo: baomoi.com)

With a growth rate of 5.4%, the Philippines ranked second among ASEAN-6. Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that household consumption and public spending were the two main pillars. Notably, public spending increased by 18.7%, the highest since the second quarter of 2020, while cooling inflation contributed to supporting household consumption.

Meanwhile, Indonesia recorded a GDP growth of 4.87%, the lowest in the past three years. According to the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the main reason was the high base effect of the February 2024 election, causing public spending to decrease by 0.08% in the first quarter of 2025. Household consumption was the main driver, contributing 2.61 percentage points to the overall increase.

“Indonesia still maintains its position in the top 3 of ASEAN in terms of growth rate and is only behind Vietnam and the Philippines this quarter,” said Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto.

Malaysia grew 4.4% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 4.9% in the previous quarter. The central bank said household consumption and electronics exports were bright spots. However, a decline in oil and gas production and a slowdown in the auto industry weighed on the recovery. Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said this year's growth could be lower than the forecast of 4.5-5.5%.

Singapore recorded a GDP growth of 3.8%, down from 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024. The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) has lowered its full-year growth forecast to 0-2% amid external factors, especially reciprocal tariffs from the US, putting pressure on the manufacturing, financial services and transport sectors.

Meanwhile, Thailand continues to be the slowest growing economy in the ASEAN-6 group with a growth rate of 3.1%. The forecast for the whole of 2025 has now been revised down to 1.3-2.3%, reflecting weak domestic demand, declining consumer confidence and the risk of US tariffs negatively impacting the export sector of automobiles and electronics.

The first quarter’s performance showed a clear divergence within the ASEAN-6 bloc. Vietnam and the Philippines maintained their recovery momentum thanks to domestic demand and stable policies, while major economies such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand faced many external challenges.

Faced with pressure from declining global trade, ASEAN faces an urgent need to reshape its development strategy: reducing dependence on exports, promoting digital transformation, greening the economy and deepening institutional integration.

Source: https://thoidai.com.vn/gdp-quy-i2025-viet-nam-dan-dau-asean-6-213676.html