Robusta coffee prices turned down at the end of the week, forecasting coffee export prices in 2025

Coffee exports from Vietnam are improving significantly month-on-month, which could temporarily prevent coffee prices from spiking in the first quarter of 2025, before new tax and trade policies under US President-elect Donald Trump are likely to take effect.

Coffee price today 11/1/2025

Global coffee prices fluctuated, with robusta on the London exchange falling back below the $5,000 mark, while arabica on the New York exchange continued to rise sharply. The strengthening of the Brazilian Real has spurred short covering in coffee futures contracts.

Domestic coffee prices recorded an increase of 300 - 700 VND/kg, currently trading in the range of 118,700 - 119,500 VND/kg. Prices continue to increase despite developments in the world market, due to high demand while supply is limited.

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam exported 1.34 million tons of coffee in 2024, down 17.2% from the previous year. In December alone, Vietnam exported only 126,000 tons of coffee, down 39.3% from the same period last year. However, export revenue jumped 32.5% to a new record of $5.6 billion.

In the robusta market, attention remains on the harvest in Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer. Rains have slowed the harvest and raised concerns about quality, but the situation appears to be improving. The weather has been more favorable for the final harvest of the new crop. Supply could increase ahead of the Lunar New Year. However, traders also said supplies from the 2024-25 crop remain limited and trading activity after the holiday remained sluggish.

According to local information, in the Central Highlands this year, coffee growers do not face much financial pressure, because many gardeners have stable income from other crops such as durian, pepper, etc. Therefore, they are not in a hurry to harvest when the coffee is not really ripe, nor are they in a hurry to sell coffee beans but "hoard" the goods, waiting for prices to go up.

According to the Vietnam Industry and Trade Information Center (VITIC), the world's coffee demand is forecast to grow by 2025 thanks to the development of new markets, changes in consumer behavior, and increased demand for premium coffee products. In 2025, the world and domestic coffee markets are forecast to remain volatile. The disruption of the raw coffee supply chain makes domestic coffee purchasing increasingly difficult and risky.

Domestic coffee prices on January 10 increased by 300 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Lecafebmt)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on January 10, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for delivery in March 2025 decreased by 13 USD, trading at 4,966 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 12 USD, trading at 4,879 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase sharply, with the March 2025 delivery term up 6.35 cents, trading at 324.85 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery term increased 6.10 cents, trading at 320.80 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices on January 10 increased by 300 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,168	+ 4
DAK LAK	119,500	+ 500
LAM DONG	118,700	+ 700
GIA LAI	119,300	+ 300
DAK NONG	119,500	+ 300

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Forecasting coffee export prices in 2025, it is believed that it may be influenced by many factors, including the supply and demand situation in the international market, weather conditions, policies of major producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia, along with global economic factors.

Brazil is the world’s largest coffee producer and has a huge influence on global coffee prices. If Brazil’s crop is hampered by adverse weather, such as drought or heavy rains, production will decline and could push up coffee prices.

Meanwhile, Vietnam, the world’s second largest coffee exporter, also has a significant impact on global coffee prices. Production in Vietnam will affect supply and export value.

Changes in demand from major consumer markets such as the US, EU, and China can increase or decrease export coffee prices. Factors such as changes in consumer trends, agricultural support policies, and organic coffee consumption trends can also have an impact.

Fluctuations in oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate can affect shipping costs and coffee export profits. A stronger US dollar would make coffee prices in other currencies higher, which could reduce demand in some markets.

Meanwhile, political situations in major coffee-producing and consuming countries can also create volatility in coffee prices. Or climate change is affecting coffee productivity and quality, especially in traditional coffee growing areas. Extreme weather can reduce production and increase prices.

Forecasts for 2025 will depend on the timing of the above factors. However, according to industry insiders, in the current context, coffee prices are likely to fluctuate strongly, but tend to remain high if production does not recover significantly after years of poor harvests or if demand from major markets remains stable.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-1112025-gia-ca-phe-robusta-quay-dau-giam-phien-cuoi-tuan-du-bao-gia-ca-phe-xuat-khau-nam-2025-300409.html