Coffee export prices increased for the 7th consecutive month, price outlook for the 2023-2024 crop year?

At the end of the 2022-2023 crop year (from October 2022 to September 2023), Vietnam's coffee exports reached 1.66 million tons (about more than 27.7 million bags), down 4.5% compared to the 2021-2022 crop year. However, revenue still increased by 3.4% to a record 4.08 billion USD thanks to high prices.

Global coffee prices ended the weekend session with strong gains on both the London and New York exchanges. Data showed that inventories on the exchanges continued to fall sharply, supporting coffee prices in the short and medium term. Meanwhile, Brazil - the leading producer - had a long holiday until the weekend, causing a sharp decrease in supply.

Coffee sales in Brazil are also being constrained as suppliers say current prices are low and have fallen too far from the same period last year.

Domestic coffee prices increased for the second consecutive session. Although the increase was not strong, it helped this agricultural product approach the price of 64,000 VND/kg.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 8/11, (Nguồn: Shutterstock)

Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by VND300/kg in some key purchasing localities in the trading session this weekend (October 14). (Source: Shutterstock)

At the end of this weekend's trading session (October 13), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery continued to increase by 28 USD, trading at 2,388 USD/ton. The January 2024 delivery period increased by 29 USD, trading at 2,284 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery increased sharply by 5.6 cents, trading at 154.9 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery price increased by 5.15 cents, trading at 155.15 cents/lb. Trading volume increased.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures - London exchange opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 the following day, Vietnam time. Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US exchange (New York exchange) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 the following day, Vietnam time.

Domestic coffee prices continued to increase by 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities in this weekend's trading session (October 14).

Average price	Change
USD/VND exchange rate	24,245	+ 5
DAK LAK	63,700	+ 300
LAM DONG	63,200	+ 300
GIA LAI	63,500	+ 300
DAK NONG	63,700	+ 300

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to not hesitate to raise its benchmark interest rate further in the near future as inflation remains above target and concerns about the escalation of the Israel-Hamas war will cause oil prices to skyrocket. While the US economic data has yet to show solid growth, funds and speculators continue to build prices into commodities in general.

In the 2022-2023 crop year, the average export price of coffee in our country reached 2,451 USD/ton, up 8.2% over the previous crop year. In September alone, the export price of coffee increased for the 7th consecutive month to a new record of 3,310 USD/ton, up 8.4% over the previous month and up 36% (equivalent to 878 USD/ton) over the same period in 2022.

Although prices are trending down, the coffee market outlook for the 2023-2024 crop year remains relatively bright.

Vietnam, the world's largest exporter of robusta coffee, is expected to continue to benefit from a shift in demand from higher-priced arabica to cheaper robusta.

The EU remains Vietnam's largest export market for this agricultural product in the 2022-2023 crop year with a volume of 615,364 tons, worth more than 1.4 billion USD, down 7.1% in volume and 0.3% in value compared to the previous crop year. The EU market also accounts for 37% of our country's total coffee export volume.

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