Pressure on gold prices

On the morning of July 28, the world gold market opened with a downward trend. The spot gold price in Asia fell nearly 10 USD/oz at one point, down to 3,326 USD/oz, after falling significantly from above 3,400 USD/oz at the beginning of last week to 3,336 USD/oz at the end of the week.

In Vietnam, the price of SJC gold is not out of this trend, decreasing by 600,000 VND/tael to 121.1 million VND/tael as of 10:00 a.m. on July 28, according to the listed price at major gold businesses.

The main reason for the pressure on gold is the increased risk appetite, stimulated by the trade agreements that the US reached with Japan, the Philippines and especially the European Union (EU) before the August 1 deadline.

According to Bloomberg , the US-EU framework agreement to impose a common tariff rate of 15% on bilateral goods, instead of the 25-30% rate that President Donald Trump had threatened, has eased months of trade tensions.

This positive news, along with the prospect of extending the US-China trade truce at the round of negotiations in Stockholm on July 28, has boosted money flows into risky investment channels such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The US stock market recorded impressive gains last week. On the last session of the week on July 25, the broad-based S&P 500 index rose for the fifth consecutive session and also set new records. Meanwhile, the technology-based Nasdaq Composite index also continuously set new records during the week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained points and was close to a record.

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World gold prices fall under new pressures. Photo: HH

According to FactSet, 82% of 169 companies in the S&P 500 reported second-quarter results that exceeded expectations, giving the market a boost. US Bank Wealth Management experts believe that the upward trend of US stocks will continue thanks to stable inflation, stable interest rates and growing corporate profits.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is also bustling. Bitcoin remains at an all-time high, while Ethereum has recorded strong growth, attracting capital from investors. Gold, considered a safe haven asset, has become less attractive as the “risk-on” sentiment prevails.

In addition, the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates at 4.25-4.5% at its meeting on July 29-30 (with betting odds of up to 97.4%) further puts pressure on gold.

A strong US dollar in the short term, with the Dollar Index hovering around 97.6 points, also helped to curb gold's gains.

Potential for deep decline if it 'breaks' the $3,300/oz mark

Despite downward pressure, world gold prices showed signs of a slight recovery late in the morning of July 28, increasing by 4 USD to 3,342 USD/oz.

However, analysts have warned that gold may be entering a correction phase. Accordingly, the recent failure of gold prices to maintain the $3,400/oz mark shows that technical risks are increasing. The fact that gold prices have broken through the important support level of $3,350 makes the risk even higher.

However, several factors could support gold prices in the medium to long term. Gold demand in Asia, especially from retail investors and central banks, remains high. Whenever gold prices correct sharply, demand usually increases, a familiar phenomenon in the market.

In addition, central banks around the world, especially in developing countries, continue to buy gold to diversify their reserves and reduce their dependence on the US dollar. This trend is reinforced in the context of US President Donald Trump putting pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates.

On monetary policy, the market is awaiting a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell after the July 30 meeting. Despite keeping interest rates unchanged this month, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates at least twice in 2025, possibly starting at the September meeting. This is seen as a long-term support factor for gold, as low interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold - a non-interest-bearing asset.

Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank said that investment demand for gold may have peaked in the short term, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to geopolitical factors and monetary policy.

This week’s key economic events will also influence gold prices. ADP employment data (Wednesday), PCE price index (Thursday) and non-farm payrolls report (Friday) will provide further clues on the health of the US economy , which will impact interest rate expectations and the USD.

Additionally, policy meetings by the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan could cause volatility in the US dollar, indirectly affecting gold.

In the short term, the world gold price may continue to be under downward pressure, with the nearest support zone being 3,300 USD/oz (equivalent to 105.7 million VND/tael). If the US economic data continues to be positive and the Fed maintains a neutral stance after its meeting at the end of July, the gold price may fall further.

In Vietnam, the price of SJC gold - which is influenced by world prices and the USD exchange rate, may decrease by another 1-2 million VND/tael, to around 119-120 million VND/tael.

However, in the medium and long term, gold remains a safe investment channel, supported by increasing demand from Asia, central bank gold reserve buying trends and expectations of lower interest rates from 2026.

Gold price today 7/28/2025: Continuous decrease, SJC gold adjusts strongly? Gold price today 7/28/2025 is forecasted to continue to decrease sharply due to lack of important momentum. Will SJC gold price adjust strongly and leave the 121 million VND/tael mark?
Gold prices fell sharply after the 'biggest trade day', money flowed into one channel . World gold prices fell sharply, while US stocks hit a new peak after President Donald Trump announced the completion of three major trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines and Indonesia, and revealed positive progress with the EU.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-chiu-ap-luc-don-dap-vang-mieng-sjc-co-lui-ve-119-trieu-dong-luong-2426443.html