Stock Market Perspective Week 11-15/8: There is still room for stock price increases

From the beginning of August 2025 to present, the average transaction value of the whole market reached VND 56,244 billion/session, significantly higher than the average of VND 21,300 billion in the first 6 months of the year.

Regarding cash flow developments last week, after leading the increase, the large-cap group is showing signs of slowing down in the last sessions of the week. On the contrary, the mid- and small-cap groups showed better cash flow attraction.

Mr. Le Duc Huy, Head of Market Strategy Department, Agribank Securities Joint Stock Company (Agriseco) assessed that this is just a cash flow circulation activity in an uptrend, helping the growth momentum spread evenly among all capitalization segments.

Specifically, the banking group, which has been the main driving force of the market in recent times, is one of the most anticipated industries in the second half of the year. In terms of valuation, many banks have P/B valuations below 2 times, but ROEs above 20% show that there is still room for price increases in the stocks.

The market still has room to increase despite short-term fluctuations.

In addition, on August 6, 2025, the Prime Minister requested the State Bank to urgently develop a roadmap to remove the credit room from 2026, showing that the journey to remove the credit room is approaching the finish line.

This not only helps banks maximize their net interest income (NII), but also significantly improves overall business efficiency, making the growth momentum of the entire industry more sustainable.

" The National Assembly 's official approval of Resolution 42/2017/QH14 is expected to help reduce the bad debt ratio of the banking group and promote credit growth. I believe that the banking group will still be a potential industry with many attractive investment opportunities in the last months of 2025," Mr. Huy commented.

The oil and gas group, which has had a slower price increase than the leading industry groups in recent times, is recording breakthrough efforts in recent sessions. Specifically, in the last session of the week, the oil and gas group, notably the upstream stocks (PVS, PVD, PVC), had a strong price increase with a sudden high trading volume, showing that the cash flow is showing signs of returning.

Mr. Huy said that the oil and gas group still has room to increase prices thanks to the prospect of positive business results in the last 6 months of the year, when the progress of large domestic oil and gas exploitation projects such as Block B, Nam Du - U Minh is showing positive developments, ensuring a stable workload for upstream contractors such as PVS and PVD.

Meanwhile, it is expected that the implementation of E10 gasoline from January 1, 2026 will create a competitive advantage for large distribution and retail enterprises with blending infrastructure (such as PLX, OIL, etc.) to benefit in the long term, because the retail price of E10 gasoline is often lower than that of mineral RON95 gasoline, leading to increased output, thereby supporting increased revenue. In addition, the gross profit margin per liter is also improved when E10 is given special consumption tax incentives.

The real estate group is also a notable industry in the second half of the year, when the real estate market nationwide is recording positive signs of recovery, especially in terms of supply and liquidity compared to the same period last year. Local mergers, especially provincial mergers, strongly promote the development of synchronous infrastructure, creating growth potential for the real estate market not only in the central area, but also in satellite cities. Real estate businesses with transparent legal status, owning clean land funds in areas with potential for price increases and consecutive projects, are expected to soon attract investment cash flows in the stock market.

Mr. Huy said that the market still has room to increase despite short-term fluctuations that may occur during the upward trend of the index.

According to Rong Viet Research, after reflecting the business results of the second quarter of 2025, the market's EPS improved by about 8% compared to the previous quarter, thereby reducing the P/E of VN-Index to 13.8x at the closing price on July 31, 2025.

For the next 3 months, Rong Viet Research maintains its P/E target range of 13.3x to 14.7x. The re-evaluation of P/E to the high zone will be supported by (1) expectations of continued improvement in EPS in the coming quarters and (2) market liquidity boosted by loose monetary policy along with expectations of market upgrade.

Conversely, unexpected adverse factors can create corrective pressure and push the market to the lower bound (approximately -1 standard deviation from the 3-year median).

Market profit growth in Q3/2025 is expected to slow down as the real estate group no longer benefits from the high base effect of the same period last year, when it recorded a large abnormal profit. However, the growth momentum is still maintained thanks to improvements in the remaining industry groups: many non-financial enterprises recorded more positive profit margins and increased consumption output, while the banking group showed faster credit growth than the same period. Thanks to that, the after-tax profit of the entire VN-Index is still able to maintain double-digit growth.

In the next 3 months, the EPS of the whole market is expected to continue to improve, fluctuating in the range of 108-112. Combined with the target valuation range of P/E from 13.3x to 14.7x, Rong Viet Research estimates that the VN-Index may fluctuate in the range of 1,445 to 1,646 points.

Rong Viet Research continues to maintain its view of maintaining a high proportion of listed stock assets, especially focusing on the group of enterprises with the ability to expand their scale of operations and good resistance to inflation. In the context of liquidity being the key factor supporting market scores, capital flows tend to continue to rotate strongly into stocks with growth potential.

With the new developments related to tariff policy, Rong Viet Research believes that this is the right time to adjust the portfolio structure towards approaching more sectors with positive improvement expectations but not fully reflected in valuations. In particular, industrial zones and fisheries are two prominent sectors expected to benefit significantly.

Specifically, the prospect of seafood exports to the US market is unlikely to be significantly affected due to the product's characteristics in the low-price segment, short supply chain and low dependence on external factors.

The industrial park sector, meanwhile, will benefit from the new tariff level – a factor that contributes to strengthening Vietnam's inherent competitive advantages in terms of cost, infrastructure and strategic geographical location.

From the above analysis, Rong Viet Research decided to increase the proportion of these two industries in this reporting period with three stocks SIP, ANV and FMC in the strategic investment portfolio.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-11-158-du-dia-tang-gia-cua-cac-co-phieu-van-con-d355016.html