The Vietnamese stock market has had its second consecutive week of gains, with the VN-Index officially closing above the old peak at the end of March 2025. This is a positive signal from a technical perspective.
According to Mr. Nguyen Thai Hoc, analyst at Pinetree Securities Company, the driving force for the increase this week mainly came from forecasts surrounding the possibility that Vietnam has reached a reciprocal tax agreement with the United States.
However, it is worth noting that the market has not yet recorded a clear consensus from the cash flow. Industry groups continue to take turns playing the leading role. After the shining period of oil and gas, shipping and chemicals, this week, the leading role shifted to the retail, technology and telecommunications groups. However, the leading stocks could not maintain a strong growth momentum throughout, as most of them only broke out for 1-2 sessions and then quickly stagnated or turned around to make slight adjustments, typically TCB, FPT , GVR, VNM or VIC.
According to the technical and cash flow perspective from HSC Securities Company, the VN-Index has surpassed the 1,370-point mark, but has not yet established a new uptrend as liquidity is not really convincing. Cash flow is mainly focused on leading stocks with clear profit prospects for the second quarter of 2025.
The cash flow diffusion indicator shows that the large-cap group reached a high of 74%, continuing to lead the trend. The mid-cap and penny groups have strong differentiation, reflecting the clear selective strategy of cash flow.
Market sentiment remains cautious, especially as the index approaches the strong resistance zone around 1,380 - 1,385 points.
Experts from Pinetree Securities believe that the current market is still in the process of building a foundation around the old peak, when the corrections are not accompanied by a significant increase in liquidity. This shows that the selling force is not too strong and the buyers are still exploring the trend. This can be seen as a necessary accumulation phase before the market establishes a new trend, which can be continued to increase or reverse to adjust.
According to experts from Pinetree Securities, many factors that are likely to have a strong impact on the market will appear simultaneously next week, including the second quarter NAV closing session that will take place at the beginning of the week. Along with that, there will be speculation and early information about the semi-annual business results of large enterprises. In particular, this is also the time approaching the end of the reciprocal tax deferral deadline between Vietnam and the United States on July 8.
In the context of no official confirmation of supporting information and the market sentiment being quite sensitive, Mr. Hoc predicts that VN-Index may experience 1-2 adjustment sessions at the beginning of the week before establishing a new trend, possibly filling the gap of 1,358 - 1,363 points during this period. The second half of next week will also be very noteworthy, when information related to business results and trade negotiations will likely gradually be revealed. Risks still exist if the negotiation results are not as expected.
Therefore, investors should remain cautious, especially with new disbursement decisions, prioritize observing market reactions around important support levels and should only act when there are clearer confirmation signals about the trend.
HSC recommends maintaining an observation and selection strategy, prioritizing large-cap stocks with positive Q2/2025 business results, with their own stories and led by cash flow such as consumption, technology, and industrial parks.
Limit FOMO at high prices, especially with stocks that have increased rapidly for many sessions.
Take advantage of short-term corrections to restructure portfolios or increase stock exposure.
The current phase is suitable for a horizontal accumulation strategy, when the market needs more confirmation from liquidity factors or clear supporting macro information to enter a new medium-term uptrend.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-dau-thang-7-uu-tien-co-phieu-von-hoa-lon-d316775.html
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