No longer characterized by "green on the outside, red on the inside," the stock market will enter a more balanced phase.

VTV.vn - The deep differentiation observed recently is expected to narrow as capital shifts to a wider range of stock groups.

2025 marks a period of impressive growth for the Vietnamese stock market as it officially gets upgraded to a secondary emerging market, while also receiving strong support from the macroeconomic foundation. As the calendar year draws to a close, a question of great interest to many investors is: what will the stock market be like in 2026, and what are the appropriate investment strategies?

In an interview on the talk show "The Finance Street" on VTV8 , Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri from IPAG Business School in Paris, France, stated that 2025 could be considered a very successful year for the Vietnamese stock market. The VN-Index has increased by approximately 30% - 35%, a very high performance compared to other markets in the region and around the world . In terms of growth rate, it is double that of the US stock market (compared to the S&P 500 index).

Furthermore, the Vietnamese stock market has also seen positive developments. For example, the average trading volume in 2025 has increased significantly compared to 2024. Average trading sessions could reach 18,000 - 20,000 billion VND per session. 2025 has also seen a very good increase in the number of new accounts opened in the stock market, with an estimated more than 11 million new investor accounts opened.

Macroeconomic outlook for 2026: A mix of opportunities and caution.

Entering 2026, the economy is targeted to grow by 10%, along with various other policies to boost economic growth, in the context of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) also trending towards lowering interest rates. According to Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri, looking at Vietnam's macroeconomic situation and GDP growth rate, although the National Assembly has decided to set a growth target of over 10%, some international organizations such as the IMF, World Bank, or some investment banks have more cautious assessments of Vietnam's growth, only around 7%.

Furthermore, considering the global context where the Fed has lowered interest rates, it remains very cautious. With the Fed's recent interest rate cut and expectations for the US economy in 2026—what many analysts call a "Goldilocks" economy, meaning an economy that is neither hot nor cold—these could be considered favorable external factors for the Vietnamese economy.

However, Vietnam still has some factors that require caution, and this has been mentioned in recent regular government meetings. These include inflation, the disbursement of public investment, and the fact that while credit growth is very good, it still faces potential challenges.

"Therefore, in my personal opinion, Vietnam's economy will maintain a growth rate of around 7% - 8% per year. If we are determined to achieve a higher-income economy by 2045 or 2050, the early years will require even greater growth to compensate for the later stages, as it is very difficult to consistently maintain a high growth rate for 20-25 years. If we want to achieve the expected results, we must be strongly determined in the early years of the period," Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri stated.

Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri discusses with editor Khanh Ly at the Financial Street Talk show.

Cash flow and industry sector outlook

For listed companies, there is a fairly high consensus in the market regarding the forecast for EPS growth in the Vietnamese market in 2026, estimated at around 12% - 15%. This also corresponds to the expected overall economic growth of Vietnam in 2026. In 2025, the market experienced a "green outside, red inside" phenomenon, with gains driven by the upward momentum of a few stocks, while many others fell sharply. Therefore, entering 2026, a rotation between industry groups or certain groups of stocks is predicted.

"In my opinion, some sectors are projected to have high growth rates, such as construction materials and infrastructure (~30%), retail (~25%), banking, and securities (15%-20%). However, it's very difficult to make a general forecast for real estate due to strong differentiation and issues with revenue recognition," Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri predicted.

Regarding the overall market outlook, with a very strong upward trend in Vietnam in 2025, and assuming nothing changes from now until the end of the year, the growth rate of the Vietnamese stock market is estimated to reach 30% - 35%, which is relatively high compared to the long-term average of a market. And for sustainable market growth, there will inevitably be periods of correction or a slowdown in growth. And when growth slows down, a factor always occurs: portfolio rotation. Typically, for stocks that have exceeded expectations, investors will choose a safer option by rotating to other stock groups or sectors. Thus, while the market maintains the overall growth rate of the stock index, it will slow down.

"I predict a growth rate of around 10%–12% next year, which is a reasonable level, and then the VN-Index will be close to 1,800, and the market will continue to revolve around this figure. In some markets around the world, such as the US stock market, many large financial institutions also forecast growth of 12-15% in 2026," said Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri.

Investment strategy: Disciplined, long-term, and flexible.

Regarding investment strategy, Associate Professor Vo Dinh Tri emphasized that investing is a long-term journey, much like a marathon. We should only invest with our spare money and the risk we can accept. As for short-term market developments, no one can predict them.

Of course, looking at the Vietnamese market in 2026, some sectors will be more favorable in terms of Vietnam's growth rate and the shift between stock sectors. For example, sectors that seemed to lag behind in 2025 may be considered for re-entry in 2026.

For example, the banking sector will also benefit from the government's continued push for public investment. Besides that, sectors such as construction materials, infrastructure, and even retail will also benefit. And in the context of Vietnam continuing to attract FDI, exports and logistics are promising sectors. Even specialized industries could benefit from low oil prices, such as the oil and gas sector.

From an individual investor's perspective, when there are outstanding profits in one or more individual stocks, it is advisable to take profits and maintain a cash ratio of around 20% to wait for opportunities to rotate through trading.

Source: https://vtv.vn/khong-con-xanh-vo-do-long-thi-truong-chung-khoan-se-buoc-vao-giai-doan-can-bang-hon-100251216104428323.htm