Fears of a wider Middle East conflict after the assassination pushed world prices up; domestic prices are expected to fall.

Oil prices today, August 1, concerns about the spread of conflict in the Middle East after the assassination of the political leader of Hamas in Iran and the continued decline in US oil inventories have supported oil prices to rebound sharply in the last trading session of July. Will domestic gasoline prices be adjusted up or down this afternoon?

Oil prices today, August 1, concerns about the spread of conflict in the Middle East after the assassination of Hamas' political leader in Iran pushed oil prices up. (Source: Reuters)

Brent crude for September delivery, which expires on July 31, rose $2.09, or 2.66%, to $80.72 a barrel. Brent crude for October delivery rose $2.77 to $80.84 a barrel. WTI crude rose $3.18, or 4.26%, to $77.91 a barrel. This was WTI's biggest daily gain since October 2023.

However, for the whole month of July, Brent oil price decreased by nearly 7%, WTI oil decreased by nearly 4%.

Reuters cited a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) saying that in the week to July 26, US oil inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels, three times higher than the 1.1 million barrel decrease forecast by analysts and the fifth consecutive week of decline - the longest streak of declines since January 2021. US gasoline inventories also fell by 3.7 million barrels.

Matt Smith, chief oil analyst at Kpler, said the EIA report provided modest support for oil prices, while stressing that geopolitical risks remained the main driver of the session's rally.

In the previous session, Brent and WTI oil prices both fell about 1.4%, closing at their lowest levels in 7 weeks due to expectations that a ceasefire agreement in Gaza could ease tensions in the Middle East and supply concerns.

Tensions in the oil-producing region have risen following the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. The incident comes less than a day after Israel said it had killed Hezbollah's top commander in an airstrike in Beirut in retaliation for the group's rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights over the weekend.

Gaurav Sharma, an independent oil analyst in London, said rising geopolitical risks were providing only temporary support for oil prices. Unless oil and gas infrastructure is affected, the latest rally is unlikely to last.

The USD index fell 0.4%, also supporting climbing oil prices.

Limiting oil prices' gains during the session were concerns about fuel demand in China, the world's top crude importer.

An official factory survey showed China's manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in July.

Ample spare capacity among OPEC members also weighed on oil prices. OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current production agreement and begin lifting some production cuts from October.

The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet online today.

Regarding interest rates in the US, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) ended its two-day policy meeting with the decision to keep the benchmark interest rate at 5.25 - 5.5%, which was set a year ago. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that interest rates could be cut as early as September.

Domestic retail prices of gasoline on August 1 are as follows:

E5 RON 92 gasoline is not more than 21,900 VND/liter.

RON 95-III gasoline is not more than 22,884 VND/liter.

Diesel oil not more than 20,194 VND/liter.

Kerosene not more than 20,326 VND/liter.

Fuel oil not exceeding 17,178 VND/kg.

Due to the continuous decrease in world oil prices last week and the first two sessions of the week, it is likely that domestic oil prices at the price adjustment session of the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Industry and Trade this afternoon will decrease for the fourth consecutive time.

However, the decrease will be moderate as oil prices have recovered some of the losses in the third trading session of the week. Domestic gasoline prices are forecast to decrease by about 100-400 VND/liter (kg).

In the most recent adjustment, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline decreased by VND274/liter, RON 95-III gasoline decreased by VND294/liter, fuel oil decreased by VND433/kg, kerosene decreased by VND338/liter, diesel oil decreased by VND310/liter.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gasoline-price-hom-nay-18-lo-ngai-xung-dot-trung-dong-lan-rong-sau-vu-am-sat-day-gia-the-gioi-bat-tang-trong-nuoc-duoc-du-bao-giam-280902.html