US warns Iran of using force if diplomacy fails

For more than a week, US President Joe Biden has been taking urgent diplomatic steps to prevent the Hamas-Israel conflict from escalating into a broader war. But if those efforts fail, the US response may depend on its military, according to Bloomberg .

The Pentagon has deployed the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, and its strike group to the eastern Mediterranean. A second carrier strike group, the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower, is on its way. Each group is equipped with F/A-18 Super Hornet multirole fighters and other advanced aircraft. In addition, 2,000 US Marines have been placed on high alert for possible mobilization.

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For now, the Biden administration says the deployment is aimed at deterring Hezbollah in Lebanon and other Iranian proxies from directly engaging in the conflict. But an unnamed US official told Bloomberg that the US has been sending an indirect message to Iran through countries like Qatar to warn Tehran that Washington is serious about using force if necessary.

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the eastern Mediterranean.

US offensive power

"Carriers and air wings give the president a lot of options. We know that Iran is looking at the size of our forces and is deterred by our new battlefield posture," said retired General Frank McKenzie, who will lead US forces in the Middle East until 2022.

The most powerful military asset Mr. Biden could use is aircraft carrier strike groups. The Ford may have helped Israel gather intelligence, but the ships have the potential to do much more.

Phil Davidson, a retired four-star admiral who has commanded carrier strike groups, said the carriers provide the US with “significant strike power” in the region. He said the two carriers provide a combined force of about 80 strike-capable aircraft, as well as cruisers, destroyers and submarines armed with Tomahawk missiles.

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They could also help Israel defend itself. Weapons systems, such as the destroyers in the strike group, “could supplement Israel’s ballistic missile defense against the threat of medium-range ballistic missiles from Iran,” Davidson said.

The Pentagon has placed 2,000 troops on high alert. Defense officials say the US Marine Corps’ Bataan Amphibious Ready Group and the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which number more than 4,000 sailors and marines, will join the US military buildup off the coast of Israel.

An F/A-18E Super Hornet fighter jet launches from the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the eastern Mediterranean.

Situations in which the US may intervene

The US’s direct involvement in the Hamas-Israel conflict through military action could shape the attitudes of voters in the country, for better or worse, as Mr. Biden prepares for a tough contest to retain his seat in the White House next year.

There is currently little discussion of a major role for US ground forces in the ongoing conflict. “There are no plans or intentions to send US forces to fight on Israeli soil,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on October 17. However, US forces could be deployed in some situations.

One of the most serious scenarios would be if Israel were hit by a large-scale rocket attack from Hezbollah, which is estimated to possess some 130,000 rockets. Israel has warned that such an attack would be met with a strong response, and that US forces would likely be involved in any retaliation.

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Biden on October 18 denied a report in Israel that Washington had informed Israel that US forces would enter the war if Hezbollah attacked.

Hezbollah may also want to target US bases or personnel in the region, as it has done in the past. The group is believed to have been behind the suicide truck bombings of the US embassy and US Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983.

Retaliation could also come from pro-Iranian forces in Iraq or Syria, who could fire missiles at Israel or even attack US troops and facilities.

In that case, the US would likely adopt a tit-for-tat policy, said Kenneth Pollack, a former Middle East analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. In March, the US launched airstrikes against what it said were Iran-linked groups in Syria after a US military contractor was killed and five US service members were wounded in a drone strike.

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