Identifying 4 factors supporting the VN-Index in the second half of 2025

The stock market will not grow continuously but will have alternating periods of adjustment - accumulation and price increase.

At the end of May 2025, VN-Index closed at 1,332.6 points, up 8.7%, showing the return of positive sentiment. This positive sentiment is assessed to come from new developments in tariff negotiations, combined with supportive macro signals.  

After a long period of time, foreign investors returned to net buying slightly in May 2025. After a series of continuous net selling from April 2023 to present, May 2025 recorded a net buying value of more than VND 914 billion on HOSE, mainly from foreign individual investors (with a fairly strong net buying of VND 1,470 billion). Net buying cash flow focused mainly on the banking group (MBB) and retail (MWG). This development contributed to supporting the strong recovery of the market in the past month.

After the first trading week of June, the VN-Index experienced 2 sessions of increase and 3 sessions of decrease. Foreign investors suddenly turned to strong net selling, especially in the session on June 6 with a net selling value of over VND 2,041 billion, causing the index to decrease by more than 12.2 points, losing all the gains in the first 2 sessions of increase in the month.  

June could be an unpredictable time for the stock market. This is the forecast of Mr. Nguyen Minh Hanh - Director of Analysis Center, SHS Securities. This expert said that this June, the market will be affected by the final developments of international trade negotiations, especially related to the possibility of temporarily suspending the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. At the same time, the impacts of tariff policies will begin to be reflected more clearly in the business results of enterprises.

Currently, many stocks and sectors are still at reasonable valuations compared to fundamentals. However, the market needs time to create a new equilibrium price zone for many sectors affected by tariffs when fundamentals are changing and weakening.

Despite the strong increase in the previous session thanks to the positive influence of Vingroup stocks, the Vn-Index will still face correction pressure and retest the support zone around 1,300 points.

“Cash flow in the market is expected to continue to circulate, but there will be clearer differentiation, focusing on groups less affected by tariffs such as: residential real estate, construction, financial services and utility services,” Mr. Hanh assessed.  

In this context, SHS maintains the target range of VN-Index in 2025 at 1,400 - 1,420 points, corresponding to an increase of about 11 - 12% compared to 2024, as stated in the strategy report at the beginning of the year.

Commenting on the momentum for the stock market in June in particular and the second half of 2025, the Director of SHS Research said that there are 4 factors supporting the growth of the index.  

The first is the temporary suspension of tariffs and trade negotiations with the expectation of lower tariffs.  

Second, economic growth and corporate profits continue to be maintained in the first half of 2025 on a low interest rate basis.  

Third is the expectation of new growth momentum from Resolution 68-NQ/TW of the Politburo on private economic development.

Fourth, the KRX system operates smoothly with the prospect of upgrading the stock market.  

However, the market will not grow continuously but will have alternating periods of adjustment - accumulation and price increase, Mr. Hanh noted.  

Regarding foreign capital flows, buying activities mainly come from individual investors, so this expert believes that it is still too early to confirm that the net buying trend has actually reversed.

However, with the expectation that the market will be upgraded in September 2025, this will be a turning point with stronger participation from institutional funds to catch the official upgrade wave (expected to take effect from March 2026). This could be the period when foreign capital flows return more clearly, creating sustainable support for the market.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/nhan-dien-4-yeu-to-ho-tro-chi-so-vn-index-nua-cuoi-nam-2025-d299624.html