At the meeting on the situation of industrial production and trade activities in the first 3 months of 2024, Director of the Department of Planning and Finance Bui Huy Son said that in general, all 3 main areas of the Industry and Trade sector including industrial production, import and export and domestic market showed very positive results in the first quarter of 2024, continuing the recovery momentum at the end of 2023, contributing positively to the growth results of the whole economy in the first quarter of 2024.
Specifically, industrial production in the first quarter of 2024 continued to flourish with the total added value of the industry estimated to increase by 6.18% over the same period last year (the same period last year decreased by 0.73%), contributing 2.02 percentage points to the total added value growth of the entire economy (GDP in the first quarter of 2024 is estimated to increase by 5.66% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of the first quarter of the years 2020-2023). In particular, the processing and manufacturing industry is the growth driver of the entire economy with a growth rate of 6.98%, contributing 1.73 percentage points; the electricity production and distribution industry increased by 11.97%, contributing 0.45 percentage points; the water supply, waste and wastewater management and treatment industry increased by 4.99%, contributing 0.03 percentage points; The mining industry alone decreased by 5.84% (coal mining output decreased by 0.3% and crude oil exploitation decreased by 3.2%), reducing by 0.2 percentage points.
The Director of the Department of Planning and Finance added that industrial production increased widely when the industrial production index in the first quarter of 2024 increased in 54/63 localities. In particular, some localities had a fairly high IIP index increase of two to three digits due to the high increase in the processing and manufacturing industry or the electricity production and distribution industry (IIP of Tra Vinh increased by 102%; Khanh Hoa increased by 37%; Bac Giang increased by 23.9%; Thanh Hoa increased by 20%; Ha Nam increased by 17.2%; Quang Ninh increased by 14%...).
Notably, some key industrial products in the first quarter of 2024 increased compared to the same period last year: Steel bars and angle steel increased by 29.1%; rolled steel increased by 24.1%; NPK mixed fertilizer increased by 23.1%; natural fiber woven fabrics increased by 21.8%; gasoline increased by 21.7%; Urea fertilizer increased by 14.4%; electricity production increased by 11.4%. On the contrary, some products decreased compared to the same period last year: Gas (natural gas) and mobile phones both decreased by 13.3%; automobiles decreased by 11.3%; televisions decreased by 11.1%; LPG decreased by 11.0%; motorbikes decreased by 5.2%.
Regarding import and export activities, with the recovery of the world market and increased export orders, import and export activities in the first quarter of 2024 have improved and achieved positive results. The total import and export turnover of goods in March 2024 is estimated at 65.09 billion USD, up 35.6% over the previous month and up 12% over the same period last year. Of which, exports are estimated at 34 billion USD, up 37.8% over the previous month and up 14.2% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 14.3%); imports are estimated at 31.08 billion USD, up 33.4% over the previous month and up 9.7% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 13.1%).
In the first quarter of 2024, the total import-export turnover of goods is estimated at 178.04 billion USD, up 15.5% over the same period last year. Of which, exports are estimated at 93.06 billion USD, up 17% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 11.6%); imports are estimated at 84.98 billion USD, up 13.9% over the same period last year (the same period in 2023 decreased by 15.4%).
Regarding the domestic market, the commodity market in March did not have many fluctuations; the supply of goods was abundant, meeting the consumption needs of the people; the prices of some food and foodstuff goods were relatively stable thanks to the abundant supply (the price of live pigs increased slightly). However, because after the Lunar New Year, people's consumption demand returned to normal, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in March increased by only 0.5% compared to the previous month and increased by 9.2% compared to the same period last year. In the first quarter of 2024, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices is estimated at VND 1,537.6 trillion, up 8.2% over the same period last year (in the first quarter of 2023, it increased by 13.9%), if excluding the price factor, it increased by 5.1% (in the first quarter of 2023, it increased by 10.1%). Retail sales of goods in the first quarter of 2024 alone are estimated at VND 1,190.3 trillion, accounting for 77.4% of the total and increasing by 7% over the same period last year (excluding the price factor, which increased by 4.5%).
According to Director Bui Huy Son, the above results were achieved thanks to: (i) The effectiveness of the Government's support measures, the Prime Minister's drastic directions in disbursing public investment capital, implementing key industrial projects; (ii) The results of attracting and disbursing FDI capital helped increase domestic production capacity; (iii) The recovery of the world market, gradually moving to a new state, adapting to major fluctuations in 2022 and 2023; The number of new export orders has increased; (iv) Efforts in diversifying export markets, especially upgrading relations with our country's major trade partners such as the US, China, Japan, etc. have strengthened investors' confidence; (v) The capacity of enterprises, especially domestic enterprises, has been improved.
However, in addition to the above positive results, the development of the Industry and Trade sector in the first quarter of 2024 is still limited, such as the inventory index of processed and manufactured products tends to increase; the domestic market growth is lower than the same period last year; export and import activities still depend on a number of key markets; the contribution of domestic enterprises to exports is still limited (28.1%).
Accordingly, in the coming time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to focus on synchronously and effectively implementing the tasks assigned in Resolutions 01 and 02 of the Government. Focus on implementing the Plans for implementing national sectoral plans in the energy and mineral sectors immediately after being approved by the Prime Minister, especially the Power Plan 8 to encourage investment and development of key energy projects, creating momentum for industrial growth in the following years. At the same time, focus on perfecting institutions, specifically, developing and submitting to the Government for consideration and submitting to the National Assembly 04 draft laws (the Law on Chemicals, the Law on Electricity (amended) have been included in the 2024 Law-making Program; the Law on Key Industrial Development and the Law on Energy Efficiency and Conservation are being proposed for supplementation); Complete and submit to the Government for consideration and promulgation of mechanisms to remove difficulties and promote investment in offshore wind power and solar power projects, direct power purchase mechanism (DPPA), rooftop solar power development mechanism; and electricity purchase price from Laos.
Also at the press conference, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan and leaders of several units under the Ministry answered many questions from the press related to issues under the management of the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
New Decree on Petroleum Business Moves Closer to Market Mechanism
Responding to reporters' questions regarding the development of a new Decree on Petroleum Business to replace the three current Decrees on Petroleum Management, Deputy Director of the Domestic Market Department Nguyen Thuy Hien said that, implementing the Government's direction, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is currently coordinating with relevant ministries, branches and units to develop a draft on petroleum business. Regarding the petroleum price mechanism, the draft Decree is expected to gradually move towards the market mechanism and the State will issue a price formula principle so that petroleum traders can proactively decide on the selling price, but the price must not be higher than the price prescribed by the price formula.
Regarding the second content on the mechanism for stabilizing gasoline prices, the gasoline price stabilization fund has recently revealed some shortcomings and needs to be studied, reviewed and amended. Accordingly, more specific regulations on the level of deduction, expenditure and time of deduction, expenditure as well as other related contents are also being considered.
Regarding the draft Decree, as expected, this content clearly stipulates that in case of price stabilization, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will take the lead in coordinating with ministries and branches to propose, synthesize reports for the Government to consider and decide on the policy of stabilizing gasoline prices, which is also consistent with the provisions of the 2023 Price Law and will take effect from July 1, 2024. The draft is currently being consulted by specialized agencies and relevant organizations. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will work with relevant ministries and agencies to research, evaluate to complete and solicit public opinions.
Providing more information on this issue, Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan - Spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that according to the process of drafting legal documents, the new Decree on Petroleum Business to replace the 3 current Decrees on Petroleum Management needs time to be published publicly and widely consulted by units, organizations and individuals within 60 days. During the drafting process, the Ministry of Industry and Trade coordinated with the Drafting Committee to agree that it would be published for comments starting from March 27.
The new draft decree has many innovative contents, ensuring the ultimate goal of balancing supply and demand and ensuring energy security. In addition, in the management process, it is necessary to both approach the market and have the regulation of state agencies.
Regarding price management, currently price management is based on the spirit of inter-ministerial cooperation, providing a ceiling price for reference and from there, businesses calculate their own prices to suit their actual business situation, but not exceeding the ceiling price, Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan said.
Resolutely ensure electricity supply all year round, especially in the dry season of 2024
Responding to reporters' questions about concerns about power shortages this year, Deputy Director of the Electricity Regulatory Authority Nguyen The Huu said that by the end of March 2024, the load growth was about 11.5%. To ensure electricity supply from the end of 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has directed units to synchronously deploy many solutions on mechanisms, policies, investment and construction, and to thoroughly implement them in operations to ensure the highest level of power supply for daily life, production and business.
Specifically, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proposed solutions to ensure electricity supply such as: First, focusing resources to strive to complete power grid projects and power sources to release power sources as well as increase transmission capacity; Second, ensuring adequate supply of raw materials and fuels for power generation, especially coal and gas; Third, strengthening supervision and inspection of the operation of electricity industry regulations, promptly resolving incidents, preparing spare materials to ensure system operation; Fourth, rationally regulating hydropower plants to ensure reserve power capacity during the peak dry season; Fifth, strengthening the review of 500kV and 200kV transmission lines, checking and correcting any defects, if any, to limit the risk of incidents; Sixth, strengthening propaganda work, promoting electricity saving programs.
The Deputy Director of the Electricity Regulatory Authority added that in February and March, implementing the direction of the Minister, relevant departments and divisions of the Ministry of Industry and Trade organized working delegations with power generation, transmission and distribution units, thereby reviewing and ensuring the electricity supply situation throughout the year, especially in the dry season of 2024.
In fact, it is forecasted that the demand for electricity in 2024 will continue to grow strongly compared to 2023. Since the end of 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has issued Decision 3110/QD-BCT dated November 30, 2023 approving the plan for electricity supply and operation of the national power system in 2024. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has also issued Decision 3376/QD-BCT dated December 29, 2023 approving the plan for electricity supply in the peak months of the dry season (April, May, June, July) in 2024 with the option of increasing the load by 9.6% to reserve for operating the power system in the peak months of the summer.
Regarding the issue of electricity prices, according to Mr. Nguyen The Huu, it is necessary to adjust according to a roadmap to minimize the impact on the macro economy and electricity users. It is necessary to consider shortening the minimum cycle of adjusting electricity prices to ensure that costs do not accumulate too much, which could affect EVN's financial balance; besides, it is also necessary to gradually adapt electricity prices to fluctuations in input parameters according to the market.
"This proposal is also consistent with the guiding viewpoint in Resolution No. 55-NQ/TW dated February 11, 2020 of the Politburo on the strategic orientation for Vietnam's national energy development to 2030, with a vision to 2045, which applies market prices to all types of energy," Mr. Nguyen The Huu emphasized.
Regarding the new point in Decision 05/2024/QD-TTg, according to Mr. Nguyen The Huu, it is the proposal to shorten the minimum time between two price adjustments from 6 months to 3 months, which does not mean that electricity prices will be adjusted every 3 months, but also depends on the assessment of the impact on the macro economy, as well as depending on whether the updated calculation results of electricity prices are sufficient to be considered for adjustment according to regulations or not.
"Decision 05/2024/QD-TTg replaces Decision No. 24/2017/QD-TTg which has just been issued, inheriting and only adjusting some new contents to be consistent with the policies and orientations of the Party, the State and the Government's direction on the energy market in general and the electricity market in particular, in line with reality and integration trends" - Mr. Nguyen The Huu said.
Providing more information on this issue, Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan said that as the sector management ministry, the Ministry of Industry and Trade still holds the main role and responsibility in managing electricity prices; in the process of checking and reviewing the electricity price plan developed by EVN and in the process of checking and adjusting electricity prices, as well as advising the Prime Minister in managing electricity prices.
Providing more information about concerns about power shortages this year, Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan said that the reduction of electricity load in June 2023 in some localities was an unfortunate incident. The Prime Minister is also very concerned and has many instructions to ensure electricity supply in 2024. Specifically, first, the Prime Minister has assigned the Ministry of Industry and Trade to directly supervise and participate in the operation, together with EVN to ensure the operation of electricity supply.
Second, there must be innovation in planning, management, and ensuring fuel and raw materials in the operation of the power system. In addition, since Decision 05/2024/QD-TTg, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has proactively issued a power supply plan, while ensuring raw materials and fuels, especially gas and coal, to serve power sources.
In particular, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has issued a separate electricity supply plan for the dry season months. For the plan from April to July, it will review it monthly and quarterly and report on it for timely adjustment. "The Ministry of Industry and Trade will work with EVN and related units to propose many solutions to ensure electricity supply. We believe and affirm that there will be no electricity shortage in 2024 and will strive to ensure sufficient electricity in the following years," Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan emphasized.
Regarding the plan to implement the VIII Power Plan, Mr. Bui Quoc Hung - Deputy Director of the Department of Electricity and Renewable Energy said that the VIII Power Plan is highly anticipated by investors, but there are still delays due to many difficulties and problems. According to the assigned tasks in Decision No. 500/QD-TTg approving the National Power Plan for the period 2021 - 2030, with a vision to 2050. Pursuant to Article 45 of the Planning Law, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has coordinated with relevant agencies to study and develop a plan to implement the VIII Power Plan.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade has implemented this plan with 6 submissions to the Government. The Government has also held many meetings, including 2 recent meetings on February 29, 2024 and March 25, 2024, assessing the VIII Power Plan as a difficult content, of interest to many domestic and foreign sectors, with many opinions during the construction and completion process to have a comprehensive and feasible plan, with the highest goal of ensuring electricity supply for socio-economic development. During the construction process, although the Ministry of Industry and Trade has made great efforts to complete the VIII Power Plan implementation plan in accordance with the schedule and instructions of the Government leaders and the Government Standing Committee. However, during the implementation process, 17 localities submitted a list of proposed renewable energy projects that were much slower than the time required by the Government. After reviewing the legality and criteria of projects provided by localities, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has completed the list and proposed the Prime Minister for approval, in accordance with the scale of allocated renewable energy capacity.
Many solutions to open the market
Regarding the question related to the results of import-export activities in the first 3 months of 2023, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department Tran Thanh Hai said that currently, the situation of production recovery is quite good, contributing to the recovery of export growth. In particular, many major export markets have recovered, overcoming the recession period.
The results were achieved thanks to the Government's solutions to support businesses such as tax reduction and administrative procedure reform; Vietnam actively attracted investment, as well as welcomed waves of foreign investment.
Besides, referring to exploiting incentives from FTAs that Vietnam has signed, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Hai said that Vietnam currently signs 16 FTAs, basically the markets have very good efficiency and Vietnam's major trading partners are all included in the FTAs.
In addition, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is also trying to find the ability to sign FTAs with areas that do not have FTAs such as the Middle East, South Asia, and Africa, thereby improving and increasing export turnover.
According to the representative of the Import-Export Department, in addition to 16 FTAs, there are currently 3 FTAs that Vietnam is negotiating, which are the FTA between Vietnam and the EFTA bloc (including 4 countries: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein); participating in the FTA negotiation framework between ASEAN and Canada; FTA between Vietnam and the UAE is also in the process of making efforts to conclude negotiations soon.
To achieve the export growth target in 2024, according to Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, in the current context, the Ministry of Industry and Trade continues to make efforts to implement many proposed solutions, including expanding negotiations on FTAs, popularizing to realize incentives from FTAs that we have signed and put into effect; innovating trade promotion activities, implementing digital transformation; helping businesses to facilitate the export of goods; simplifying import and export procedures.
Emphasizing the effective exploitation of markets with which Vietnam has FTAs, Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan added that in addition to continuing to expand and study the signing of additional FTAs, Vietnam will continue to enhance the upgrading of existing FTAs such as FTAs related to ASEAN, continue to expand the market; make better use of existing FTAs, and exploit traditional markets.
The spokesperson of the Ministry of Industry and Trade also noted that export and import activities still depend on a number of key markets; the contribution of domestic enterprises to exports is still limited. To maintain growth momentum, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will, together with relevant ministries and sectors, continue to support enterprises to take advantage of current FTAs, upgrade FTAs to expand markets, and increase the export capacity of Vietnamese goods. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will closely monitor market developments and policy changes of partners to propose appropriate solutions, diversify traditional and new export markets. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will continue to inform industry associations about developments in export markets so that enterprises can promptly adjust their production plans accordingly and orient their search for orders from markets.
Responding to reporters' questions regarding the request of steel manufacturing enterprises to the Department of Trade Defense to investigate anti-dumping of hot-rolled steel, Mr. Chu Thang Trung - Deputy Director of the Department of Trade Defense said that the Ministry of Industry and Trade has recently received anti-dumping dossiers from a number of domestic enterprises for a number of foreign products imported from the Chinese and Indian markets. Pursuant to the provisions of the Law on Foreign Trade Management, when domestic steel manufacturing enterprises detect dumping behavior, showing signs of causing damage to the domestic manufacturing industry, they have the right to submit dossiers to competent authorities.
“Immediately after receiving the application dossiers of enterprises, based on regulations and procedures, the competent authority will proceed to appraise the validity of the dossier (lasting 15 days). In case the dossier is incomplete, representatives of domestic manufacturing industries must submit additional dossiers. When the dossier is complete and valid, the dossier will be appraised within 45 days. On that basis, it is recommended that the Ministry of Industry and Trade initiate or not initiate an anti-dumping investigation. The investigation period after initiation will last from 2 to 6 months (maximum 8 months). During the process, the Investigation Agency will specifically notify relevant parties to provide sufficient evidence for comprehensive and fair consideration and then draw reasonable conclusions. Even after initiating the investigation, no measures have been applied to imported goods,” Mr. Chu Thang Trung stated, adding that the investigation process will be carried out publicly and transparently; The dossiers are fully announced on the information channels. The Ministry of Industry and Trade as well as the Department of Trade Defense have information for the press agencies and businesses, and at the same time, fully implemented in accordance with the provisions of Vietnamese law and the World Trade Organization.
In his supplementary reply, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan said that the right to request an anti-dumping investigation belongs to enterprises. Enterprises have the right to submit an application. There are many opinions on the application (supporting anti-dumping investigations and suggesting that it should not be applied). The Ministry of Industry and Trade always complies with regulations. The investigation process is strictly implemented and the results of the investigation may or may not be applied. Therefore, there must be sufficient basis and evidence to prove whether or not an anti-dumping investigation should be applied. "The Ministry of Industry and Trade is reviewing and continuing to request the parties to submit additional documents, but has not yet made a final conclusion or decision on whether to investigate or not," Deputy Minister Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan informed.
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