Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan proposed to increase retirement age, pay enough salary to raise 2 children

nghỉ hưu - Ảnh 1. — Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan - Photo: GIA HAN

On the morning of October 12, the Committee on Culture and Social Affairs continued its third plenary session to examine the draft Population Law.

If we don't act now, there will be no chance of recovery.

Speaking here, Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan (HCMC) said that Vietnam is facing an urgent situation regarding population work.

If we do not enact a law now to create a basic legal framework to address population and labor issues, the elderly will follow in the footsteps of Japan, South Korea and several other countries.

As a visual example, he said Japan used to have an economic growth rate of 13%/year, but has gone through 50 years of low birth rates and labor shortages.

It is predicted that by 2100, their workforce will be 63% smaller than in 1995. This shows that high economic growth and modern science and technology are not a guarantee for sustainable development.

If fertility is not sufficient, the consequences will last 50 to 100 years, and if action is not taken now, there will be no chance of recovery.

Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan cited that South Korea is facing a similar situation, growing at more than 9% per year for nearly half a century, but the birth rate is still not enough.

Although Singapore's economy is very developed, for many years the birth rate has not been enough and it has had to implement an immigration policy to maintain growth.

Based on the above reality, he believes that Vietnam cannot choose the path of insufficient births and compensation through immigration. "We are facing the choice of either developing or not developing," he said.

According to Professor Nguyen Thien Nhan, Vietnam is the only country in the world that has a separate resolution on population work in the new situation, and at the same time announced the policy of maintaining the replacement birth rate. However, after many years of implementation, this goal has not been maintained.

"The Politburo's directive clearly states that in the new development period, there must be three breakthroughs - breakthroughs in thinking, breakthroughs in policy and breakthroughs in implementation. Therefore, the Population Law must definitely demonstrate a breakthrough in thinking," Professor Nhan further emphasized.

3 challenges for Vietnam

Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan said that Vietnam is facing three major challenges. Firstly, in the past three years, the replacement fertility rate has continuously decreased. In 2022, it was 2.01 children/woman, in 2023 it was 1.96 children, in 2024 it was 1.91 children.

Vietnam has begun to follow the path that South Korea, Japan and more than 40 developed countries have experienced - as per capita income increases, the birth rate decreases.

Second, while the working age of retirement in Vietnam is still low. Currently the average age is 60 and is increasing, but the "golden population" period has long passed.

In other countries, the golden population is calculated when the number of working people is twice the number of non-working people. But in other countries, working people usually work until 64 years old, while in Vietnam, it only works until 60 years old.

Therefore, if we want to employ workers aged 60-64, we need to continue adjusting the retirement age according to a reasonable roadmap. "If there is no roadmap to increase the retirement age, it will waste a huge amount of social resources that the world has increased. We must change," Professor Nhan added.

Third, through international research, there are 11 direct causes leading to the decline in birth rates. Of these, 2 are the causes leading to the current birth rate being lower than before.

Specifically, in the world, since 1970, modern methods of contraception have been effective and countries that have become less poor have been able to control their own childbearing.

The second reason is that the income of two working people is not enough to raise two children and they will not have them.

He analyzed that businesses with the goal of maximizing profits only want to pay minimum wages, not enough to raise two children. Therefore, in many countries, an average of 40% of households do not have enough income to raise two children.

According to him, in the short term, businesses only want to pay low wages to maximize profits, but when businesses pay wages that are not enough to raise two children, after 30 years they themselves will no longer have labor to produce. Therefore, it is necessary to change from paying minimum wages to wages that are enough to raise two children.

"We know the cause and then we have to start working. There must be a breakthrough in awareness, policy and solutions," Mr. Nhan further emphasized.

He also suggested that there must be a mechanism to determine the responsibilities of Party committees and authorities at all levels in implementing the upcoming population policy.

Back to topic

THANH CHUNG

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/ong-nguyen-thien-nhan-de-xuat-tang-tuoi-nghi-huu-tra-luong-du-nuoi-2-con-20251012104342397.htm