In the first six months of the year, credit demand recovered slightly.

On July 15th, the Forecasting and Statistics Department ( State Bank of Vietnam ) announced the results of the "Survey on Credit Trends of Credit Institutions". The survey results show that in the first six months of 2024, credit institutions reported meeting the overall borrowing needs of customers at a higher rate compared to the same period last year, but still lower than the last six months of 2023.

Credit institutions expect overall customer credit demand to improve significantly in the last six months of the year.

The proportion of credit institutions that believe they can meet the group's loan needs is high (75% or more). 14 commercial banks The key performance indicator for this period continues to be 100%.

To facilitate access to credit for businesses and individuals, in the first six months of the year, credit institutions reported a trend of "unchanged" or slightly "loosened" credit standards, as expected in the survey for the last six months of 2023. This trend was observed in the following areas: lending for high-tech applications; lending for supporting industries; lending for home purchases; lending for investment in the logistics service sector; processing and manufacturing industries; lending for import and export businesses; lending for investment and business in tourism ; and lending to individual customers.

Credit institutions have also eased the trend of "tightening" credit standards for the following sectors: securities investment; real estate investment; finance, banking and insurance; and construction.

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Credit institutions expect that the trend of slightly "loosening" credit standards will be more prevalent in the last six months of the year compared to the first six months.

Accordingly, credit standards are expected to be "loosened" for all customer groups and most sectors, except for four sectors: real estate investment loans; securities investment loans; finance, banking, and insurance loans; and construction, which is expected to remain "tightened," but with a narrower "tightening" trend compared to the first six months of 2024.

Regarding overall customer credit demand, credit institutions anticipate only a slight recovery in the first six months of 2024, significantly lower than the expectations recorded in the previous survey. Therefore, credit institutions expect overall customer credit demand to improve in the last six months of 2024, focusing on corporate customers and the borrowing needs of the processing and manufacturing industries.

For the whole year of 2024, the percentage of credit institutions in this survey that anticipate an overall increase in customer credit demand compared to 2023 is 79.4% (lower than the 82% rate of the previous survey).

Meanwhile, credit institutions have identified factors that could negatively impact credit demand in the coming period, including: unfavorable developments in the real estate market; customers' ability to use alternative sources of financing; and a decline in consumer confidence.

Credit institutions also pointed out four driving forces. credit growth The strongest sectors in 2024 and projected for 2025 are: Wholesale and retail trade; import and export; steel and other metals; and manufacturing.

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Furthermore, according to assessments by credit institutions, credit risk of loans is expected to continue "increasing" in the first six months of 2024 and is forecast to continue a "slightly increasing" trend in the next six months and throughout 2024, but the rate of increase is projected to slow down significantly compared to 2023.

Specifically, credit risk for real estate investment loans had the highest percentage of credit institutions assessing it as "increasing" in the first six months of 2024, followed by credit risk for securities investment loans; however, the percentage of credit institutions assessing the risk of these two sectors as "increasing" was lower than the percentage of credit institutions forecasting it in the previous survey period.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/sau-thang-dau-nam-nhu-cau-tin-dung-phuc-hoi-nhe-3309054.html