Although his governing policies are unclear, Mr. Trump is still expected to create another volatile and unpredictable term if he wins the election on November 5.
Mr. Trump spoke at his last campaign rally in Wisconsin on November 1 - Photo: REUTERS
As the US election day on November 5th approaches, the people of the land of the stars and stripes and the world are increasingly concerned about the prospect of Mr. Trump returning to the White House. After 8 years in politics and a tumultuous presidential term, Mr. Trump is predicted to bring even more unpredictability if he returns to the White House.
Election "Trump or not Trump"
Mr. Trump entered the election campaign with a presidency that, despite many controversies, was still better than expected. The US economy was growing strongly, the middle class in society increased significantly, and Washington's geopolitical opponents were somewhat immobilized by his unpredictable temperament. This strength was further consolidated when Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris's tenure struggled with an economy that had not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic. Abroad, the US faced the rise of formidable geopolitical rivals such as Russia, China and Iran. However, Mr. Trump's difficulties far outweighed his ease. His controversial personality, legal scandals and doubts about his moral character made a large part of the American people hate this billionaire with a lot of personality. Faced with these perceived difficulties, Mr. Trump also "shot himself in the foot" by failing to provide a clear policy direction for most of the issues on the agenda. However, despite the above facts, Mr. Trump still maintains a group of loyal voters and political allies, ready to answer the call of the former president. The Wall Street Journal commented: "If Mr. Trump wins, it will be a resounding victory for the ages, a testament to his tenacity and ability to represent the voice of the American people who feel forgotten." On the contrary, the Economist magazine is worried about the fate of the United States in Mr. Trump's second term (if successful). In contrast to his previous term, when he was surrounded and restrained by neutral officials and experts, this time he prioritizes choosing absolutely loyal allies. In many newspapers, the 2024 US presidential election has become an election of "Trump or not Trump", instead of "finding a highly trusted person".
"America First" Economy
Mr. Trump stood frying potatoes at a McDonald's branch to please ordinary voters - Photo: REUTERS
Although he has not yet given a specific roadmap, Mr. Trump's main economic policy will almost certainly prioritize developing America's internal strength, especially through boosting domestic production. According to the Washington Post and Financial Times , the Republican candidate has pledged to impose a 20% tax on all imported goods. Chinese goods alone will be taxed at least 60%. On the contrary, he has proposed reducing corporate taxes by up to 15% for domestic manufacturing companies. In addition, he has promised to sharply reduce personal income tax, and has even mentioned the possibility of eliminating this tax. On the surface, the above policies are said to greatly improve the lives of the American people. However, the Financial Times warned that the consequences of raising tariff barriers and personal income will be reflected in market prices, causing inflation to skyrocket. At that time, American consumers will be the ones to suffer. In addition, Mr. Trump also promised to accelerate the reduction of the national management apparatus and streamline administrative procedures. These are things he did well in his presidency and is expected to continue.
Bad news for Ukraine, good news for Israel
Mr. Trump met Mr. Zelensky at Trump Tower on September 27 - Photo: NEW YORK TIMES
Security and foreign affairs are aspects that observers consider Mr. Trump to be better than Ms. Harris. Mr. Trump's return to the White House is almost bad news for Ukraine. He has repeatedly boasted of his good relationship and ability to influence Russian President Vladimir Putin, as well as criticized the way the Biden administration provides aid to Kiev. He has asserted that he can use his personal reputation to quickly end the war in Ukraine, but has never explained how. However, he has advised Ukraine to exchange land for peace, which Kiev considers taboo. In the Middle East, Mr. Trump is more likely to support Israel than Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris. The Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab countries will be promoted, thereby further isolating Iran and pro-Tehran organizations. The assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020 will still be a lesson to remind Iran of Mr. Trump's unpredictability, making the country more cautious with adventurous decisions. The Financial Times predicts that Mr. Trump's influence on Beijing is very unpredictable. The probability of him compromising with Chinese President Xi Jinping is as high as the probability of Washington completely separating the two countries. However, he has also firmly affirmed that he will not allow Beijing to attack Taiwan by force during his term in office. In any case, Mr. Trump's coming to power is worrying news for US allies. For many years, Mr. Trump has always expressed dissatisfaction with alliance agreements such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Japan, South Korea, etc. He believes that many allies are relying on US military power to ensure their security and has asked them to contribute proportionately to maintain defense cooperation.
Immigration remains a priority
Mr. Trump on the presidential debate stage on the evening of September 10 - Photo: AFP
Trump's stance on abortion is tougher than the Democrats' but still somewhat more moderate than the Republicans'. He once criticized Florida's ban on abortions after six weeks as "too strict" and is expected to veto a nationwide abortion ban if it is passed by Congress . Trump's support for combating climate change is considered much more limited than Biden's. He is also expected to loosen gun control regulations as he has done. Immigration is one of Trump's strengths and focuses on the election campaign. He maintains a tough stance on immigrants, promising to carry out the largest immigration deportation campaign in US history. He also proposed adding legal tools and strengthening border control forces.
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