Commodity market 5/20: World commodity prices...

In the energy market, at the end of yesterday's trading session (May 19), cautious sentiment prevailed in the energy market as conflicting information about demand and supply continued to emerge. Closing, Brent oil prices recorded an increase of 0.2%, reaching 65.54 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, WTI oil prices stopped at 62.69 USD/barrel, equivalent to an increase of 0.32%.

The rise in oil prices was largely supported by renewed disagreements between the US and Iran over Tehran’s controversial nuclear program. In an interview on May 18, US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff affirmed that Washington would not accept any deal without Iran controlling its uranium enrichment activities, calling this a “red line” that cannot be crossed.

Shortly after, a series of Iranian Foreign Ministry officials spoke out against the report. Both Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takhtravanchi warned that the previous negotiations between the US and Iran would not achieve any significant results. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that there was a difference between the views expressed by the US side at the negotiating table and those reported in the media.

However, Baghaei said negotiations between the two countries are continuing, with a fifth round planned for Rome this week. Witkoff said in the interview that he remains optimistic about the progress of the negotiations. Earlier, on May 15, US President Donald Trump said the two countries were close to reaching a new agreement to replace the previous agreement signed in 2015.

Source: MXV

The US government is currently imposing sanctions on Iran and, in particular, its ability to export energy products. Reaching a new agreement on Tehran's nuclear program is a prerequisite for these sanctions to be lifted. However, the above developments have dealt a heavy blow to the ability of OPEC's third-largest oil producer to return to the international market.

On the other hand, information about the US government's credit rating and the manufacturing situation in China put pressure on oil prices this morning, while restraining the increase throughout the rest of the session. Specifically, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from the highest level Aaa to Aa1 due to concerns about public debt, a move that could significantly affect President Trump's tax cut program being considered by Congress. In addition, newly released data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that industrial output growth in April was only 6.1% compared to the same period last year, down sharply from 7.7% in March, raising concerns about the health of the world's second largest economy .

Regarding the industrial raw material group, according to MXV, at the end of the trading session on May 19, the price of arabica coffee for July contracts on the ICE US exchange increased sharply by 2.48% to 8,260 USD/ton, while robusta for the same term on the ICE EU exchange also increased by 2.22% to 4,973 USD/ton. This increase was mainly due to information that the coffee harvest in Brazil is being delayed due to prolonged rain, especially in key robusta growing areas such as Bahia and Espirito Santo.

Source: MXV

According to Safras & Mercado, as of May 13, only 7% of the coffee area had been harvested, lower than the five-year average of 10%. Robusta alone reached 11% of the area, down from 16% at the same time last year, while Arabica reached only 4%, lower than 7% last year.

The 2024/25 export season for high-quality washed arabica coffee in Mexico and Central America is now just four months away. The majority of these countries’ production has reportedly been sold, leaving only limited coffee on the market. Exports have been hampered throughout the season by vessel and equipment shortages, congestion, and reduced shipments at ports in Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, causing significant delays in shipments.

In addition, according to MXV, Brazil's average daily coffee exports in the first half of May were just over 105,600 60kg bags, down 43% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in international supply. Meanwhile, robusta inventories on the ICE exchange reached a nearly 8-month high of 4,626 lots, while arabica inventories were around 858,530 60kg bags, the highest in more than 3 months, continuing to put pressure on prices in the medium term.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has just raised its 2025 coffee production forecast to 55 million bags, up 2.3% from last month, of which Arabica production is expected to reach 37 million bags, up 3.5% from the previous forecast but still 7.5% lower than in 2024. However, the amount of coffee sold has only reached 16% of the expected output, lower than the same period last year, showing that the actual supply to the market is still limited.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-20-5-gia-hang-hoa-the-gioi-dong-loat-tang-253076.html