Stock Market Perspective 20-23/2: Continuing positive trend, still need to be careful with fluctuations
The psychological mark of 1,200 has been surpassed and there is a signal of relatively large selling pressure in the 1,210 point area. The market trend is still positive but it is forecasted that there will be fluctuations around this area.
The first week after Tet had only 2 trading days but had quite positive developments. VN-Index moved above the psychological resistance zone of 1,200 points. At the end of the week, it increased by +7.20 points (+0.60%) and closed at 1,209.70 points.
From a short-term perspective, most securities experts believe that the market is in the first uptrend to move within a wide accumulation channel and currently the VN-Index has surpassed the psychological barrier of 1,200 points. However, at the present time, the uptrend of the VN-Index may face difficulties because the market will fluctuate around this threshold.
With a positive view, the short-term uptrend target is around 1,250 points. Divergence will be strong, in which the positivity of the Banking group and large-cap stocks are currently the driving force to help the index continue to increase. However, in this trend, it is forecasted that next week, there will be continuous tug-of-war and adjustment periods. Therefore, investors should not chase the market, but should only disburse during market correction periods.
In particular, the threshold of 1,215 - 1,225 is considered the area that investors need to pay attention to in the short-term trend. This is also the area where VN-Index confirmed to enter a downtrend in the downtrend from September - November 2023.
Information that experts believe will support the market in 2024 is that the current low interest rate level will certainly help investment channels such as stocks benefit. If in the long run, sooner or later there will be a group of new investors looking for opportunities in the stock market to achieve better growth than the deposit level.
From a medium-term perspective, after a period of deep market decline, the market needs to move towards a new equilibrium and accumulate again, with a wide fluctuation range, so the time to form a new base will be longer. With the movements of VN-Index in recent times, it is confirmed that VN-Index is gradually moving to form a wide medium-term accumulation channel of 1,150 points - 1,250 points.
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