Real estate credit is booming, paving the way for a "wave" of social housing

(Chinhphu.vn) - Real estate credit has grown again with outstanding loans of more than 4.1 million billion VND, the bad debt ratio is under control, while many preferential credit packages for social housing are entering a period of strong disbursement. The recovery of confidence spreads from banks, businesses to people, creating expectations for a stable, sustainable market and expanding housing opportunities for middle and low income groups.

Conference announces decision to reorganize Central Steering Committee on housing policy and real estate market Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

At the conference announcing the decision to reorganize the Steering Committee and the first meeting of the Steering Committee on the afternoon of September 22, Deputy Governor of the State Bank Nguyen Ngoc Canh reported on the real estate credit situation and the implementation of social housing loan programs.

Real estate credit grows positively

According to the State Bank's report, by July 31, 2025, outstanding real estate credit reached more than VND 4.1 million billion, an increase of 17% compared to the end of 2024, accounting for 23.68% of the total outstanding debt of the economy . Of which, outstanding debt for real estate business reached VND 1.79 million billion (an increase of 23.87%), outstanding debt for consumption related to real estate reached VND 2.28 million billion (an increase of 12.4%).

The bad debt ratio is only 2.43%, still within control limits. Deputy Governor Nguyen Ngoc Canh said that this growth reflects the actual demand of the market, and also shows that banks have maintained lending discipline, balancing credit expansion and system safety, contributing to macroeconomic stability.

Strong support for social housing programs

By the end of July 2025, outstanding loans for housing programs under the Government's direction reached about VND 30,000 billion. Of which, the housing support loan program under Resolution 02 disbursed VND 29,679 billion; the social housing loan program under Resolution 100 reached VND 19,226 billion.

Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Canh said the bad debt ratio is only at 2.43%, within control limits - Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

Currently, the State Bank is implementing a social housing loan package under Resolution 33/NQ-CP with a scale of 145,000 billion VND until 2030. Notably, under the new mechanism, these loans are not included in the annual credit growth target, and priority is given to people under 35 years old. Interest rates have also dropped sharply: from 8.7%/year for investors and 8.2%/year for home buyers, now 6.4% and 5.9%/year, creating easier access.

Initial results show that 26/34 provinces and cities have announced a list of about 108 participating projects. Banks have committed to providing credit of VND8,600 billion, of which loan turnover has reached VND4,578 billion (VND3,858 billion for investors, VND720 billion for buyers).

Deputy Governor Nguyen Ngoc Canh pointed out that the implementation of the social housing program still faces difficulties in three major areas:

Actual needs of people : many workers in industrial zones tend to rent houses instead of buying, while the regulation restricting resale within 5 years makes it difficult to change needs. Legal entity for disbursement : banks need a clear legal mechanism when lending through investors of industrial zones, from which they can deploy capital to tenants or home buyers. Clean land fund : many localities have not prepared in time to hand over land to businesses, causing slow project progress, making it difficult for credit capital to be disbursed safely.

He emphasized that if all three factors are handled synchronously, the social housing program will be promoted more effectively, meeting the needs of low-income people and workers.

Mr. Nguyen Duc Vinh affirmed that bank interest rates have never been as low as they are now - Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

Banks accompany real estate: A bright signal for a new journey

Mr. Nguyen Duc Vinh, General Director of Vietnam Prosperity Joint Stock Commercial Bank ( VPBank ), said that the real estate market today is very different from a year ago. At that time, many projects were almost "frozen", banks were passive, just waiting for their debts to mature. But thanks to the Government's drastic steps, real estate has recovered, pulling the banking system out of the risk of bad debt and gaining more confidence in recovery. "Compared to a year ago, the market is much more vibrant. This shows that we have passed the most difficult period," he emphasized.

According to Mr. Vinh, current real estate prices are the result of many factors, the most important of which is the land price level. For many years, local budgets have been supplemented by increasing land prices, but that has also pushed up housing costs. When adding material prices and capital costs, the overall picture becomes more difficult. "If we want to reduce prices, we need a more comprehensive and drastic land policy. Only by increasing supply will the market self-regulate," he analyzed.

Regarding interest rates, Mr. Vinh frankly said: "I have been working in banking for 26 years, and I have never seen interest rates as low as they are now." He believes that interest rates are a great advantage for both businesses and people, but they are not a "magic wand". The core problem lies in procedures. If a project is implemented in six months, businesses will not be too concerned about the interest rate being 7% or 10%. But if it is suspended for many years, "interest begets interest", no matter how low the interest rate is, it will not be able to save it.

With a credit package of 120,000 billion VND for social housing, VPBank's General Director believes that the fourth quarter of this year and 2026 will be a time of strong disbursement. He also agrees with the option of directly assigning to reputable real estate businesses to develop social housing at reasonable prices. The State then only needs to control the target and give incentives to the right address, while businesses can do it quickly and effectively. "Building social housing is not for profitable business, but for social responsibility. Businesses are willing to accept losses to compensate from other areas," he affirmed.

Mr. Le Hoang Chau believes that the 145,000 billion VND package will be disbursed soon - Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

Signs of recovery and confidence from the social housing market

Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, emphasized that the real estate market has entered a recovery cycle and will grow again from the first quarter of 2024: "This trend will not reverse, so we have confidence."

According to the Ministry of Construction's report, there are currently 692 social housing projects underway with more than 600,000 apartments. Mr. Chau said: "As VPBank said, there will be a social housing boom in the coming years" . However, to reach the target of 1 million social housing units, more than 300,000 units are still needed. Mr. Chau said that this is the foundation to create a "wave" of supply in the coming years, while contributing to solving the housing needs of the middle and low income groups.

One of the important tools is the VND145,000 billion credit package of 9 commercial banks. Mr. Chau emphasized that this is a voluntary commercial credit package, not a preferential package, in which Vietcombank contributes VND30,000 billion. However, this package has not been disbursed due to legal problems of the projects. He expressed his belief that with the specific resolutions, pilot resolutions and law amendments that are about to be issued, "this VND145,000 billion package will be disbursed soon."

One notable content is the amendment of Decree 100 on social housing. Mr. Chau said that the Ministry of Construction has proposed adjusting the income criteria: 20 million VND/month for an individual, 40 million VND for a couple, and 30 million VND for individuals raising children under 18 years old. "We strongly agree with this proposal," he affirmed.

Regarding loan interest rates, he proposed returning to the 4.8%/year level, which was approved by the Prime Minister for the period 2021 - 7/2024. Currently, the Vietnam Bank for Social Policies is applying a rate of 6.6%, higher than the commercial interest rate that some banks such as Vietcombank are applying (5.9 - 6.1%). "We propose that the Prime Minister re-sign the 4.8% level, and Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City can stipulate a higher level suitable to their characteristics," he emphasized.

House price reduction: Must reduce costs and procedures

Mr. Chau believes that to reduce housing prices, we must first reduce costs: from land use fees, construction costs, input costs such as sand, gravel, steel, cement, electricity, gasoline, to legal compliance costs. "Especially the opportunity cost due to lengthy administrative procedures," he said.

Another important factor is the profit expectations of enterprises. He emphasized: "We suggest that the business community share, that is, reduce profit expectations to a reasonable level to have sharing." He also affirmed the role of credit in regulating the market, citing China as an example, where lending rates are adjusted according to the hot and cold state of the market.

Despite many problems, Mr. Chau affirmed his belief in the future of the real estate market. "There must be a delay in the implementation of policies and real estate projects. But we believe that with institutional solutions and reasonable credit policies, the market will recover more strongly."

Thu Trang

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/tin-dung-bat-dong-san-khoi-sac-mo-duong-cho-lan-song-nha-o-xa-hoi-102250922220408804.htm