From stable macro to public investment momentum: The market awaits a reversal signal

(Chinhphu.vn) - The domestic stock market is under pressure to adjust, but the macro picture is gradually brightening as GDP in the fourth quarter is forecast to increase sharply, public investment disbursement accelerates, and domestic cash flow is ready to "catch the bottom" to help the market find its balance again.

From stable macro to public investment momentum: The market awaits a reversal signal

International markets adjust strongly

According to the Market Strategy Report of the research division, MBS company, the world stock market last week recorded negative developments when many major indexes in Asia and the US simultaneously decreased. Specifically, Nikkei (Japan) lost 4.1%, KOSPI (South Korea) decreased 3.7%...

In the US, the Nasdaq fell 3% – the biggest drop since April, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both fell more than 1%. Technology stocks were under the most selling pressure, reflecting concerns about the US economic outlook as the federal government shutdown continued for more than 5 weeks – the longest in the country's history.

Due to the government shutdown, many important US economic reports have been delayed, forcing investors to rely on private sector data – which is often less accurate – to assess the economic situation and predict the direction of the Federal Reserve interest rate. According to a survey by Dow Jones, the US non- farm sector is expected to lose 60,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%, raising concerns about slowing growth.

In Vietnam, the VN-Index recorded 4 consecutive weeks of decline – the longest decline since August 2024. At the end of the first week of November, the VN-Index stopped at 1,599.1 points, down 40.55 points (-2.5%) compared to the previous week, losing a total of more than 200 points (-11.2%) compared to the most recent peak.

Although the market breadth was strongly inclined towards the downside, some sectors still recorded positive developments such as food (+7.1%), insurance (+2.9%) and oil and gas (+0.9%). In contrast, the retail (-6.9%), public investment (-6.4%) and seafood (-6.4%) groups were under strong adjustment pressure.

Total market liquidity reached VND28,644 billion, down 5.8% compared to the previous week, of which matched transactions decreased by 4.8% to VND26,565 billion. On average, liquidity in the first week of November decreased by 22% compared to the average level in October, but was still 81% higher than the same period last year.

Accumulated from the beginning of the year, the average liquidity of the whole market reached VND 29,500 billion, an increase of 39.8% compared to the average in 2024 - a positive indicator of cash flow still remaining in the market, despite the adjusted index.

Public investment boom in the fourth quarter - the driving force for GDP to reach the target

According to the assessment, VN-Index decreased more than 200 points (-11.2%) from the peak of 1,800 points in just 4 weeks, this adjustment is considered normal after a strong increase from the bottom in April and the beginning of the year. If excluding the influence of Vingroup group, the actual index is at 1,398 points - significantly lower than the general level.

MBS experts believe that the market is in a re-accumulation phase after a hot growth period, when the macro foundation remains solid and growth support policies are strongly promoted.

The economic picture in the first 10 months of 2025 continues to improve. GDP growth in the first 9 months reached 7.85%, to complete the yearly target, the fourth quarter needs to increase by over 8.4%. However, after more than 10 months, the whole country has only disbursed more than 464,000 billion VND, reaching 51.7% of the plan, while more than 400,000 billion VND of public investment capital is still "on paper".

Notably, General Secretary To Lam signed and issued Conclusion No. 203-KL/TW requesting to continue promoting the implementation of solutions to ensure the highest achievement of the 2025 growth target, creating momentum for the upcoming double-digit growth period. Along with that, many key national projects such as the Eastern North-South Expressway, Ninh Thuan Nuclear Power Plant, international railway... will be started in early 2026.

With these factors, public investment is expected to be an important "push" to help GDP in the fourth quarter break out and the stock market have a chance to recover around the support zone of 1,600 - 1,620 points.

The VN-Index has fallen sharply by more than 200 points, but many key stocks have lost even more value. Some sectors such as securities, banking, real estate, etc. have decreased by 20-30%, although their business results for the third quarter of 2025 still show good growth.

Excluding the Vingroup group, the index is actually below the 1,400-point threshold – equivalent to the starting point of the strong increase earlier this year, triggered by net foreign capital buying of more than VND13,400 billion for 3 consecutive weeks.

This shows that the stock price level has adjusted deeply, creating opportunities for domestic cash flow to "catch the bottom" and form a new accumulation zone. Cash flow is tending to return to groups of stocks with good fundamentals, especially finance, manufacturing and export.

The 1,600-point support zone has been tested many times since the end of August. Every time the VN-Index touches this level, bottom-fishing money flows appear. The fact that the index temporarily lost this level last week is not too surprising, because the first round of bottom-fishing was not strong enough.

Technically, the MA100 threshold (1,590 - 1,600 points) continues to be a short-term support zone. If the market maintains stable liquidity and does not break this threshold decisively, the possibility of a short-term recovery will still be maintained, especially when entering the fourth quarter business results announcement season and cash flow from investment funds rebalancing their portfolios.

Listed enterprises grow, market capitalization expands

According to Mr. Nguyen Anh Phong, Chairman of Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX), along with the economic recovery, market liquidity has increased significantly, the average trading value of the whole market reached nearly 30,000 billion VND/session, an increase of 42.6% compared to 2024.

By the end of October 2025, the total capitalization of the three exchanges HOSE, HNX and UPCoM reached more than VND 9.18 million billion, an increase of 28% compared to the end of the previous year, equivalent to 79.8% of GDP in 2024. Of which, the private economic sector accounts for 83% of listed enterprises and 63.4% of registered enterprises, affirming the increasingly important role of this sector in the capital market.

Enterprises listed on HNX recorded 90% of profits in the first 6 months of the year, with total profits reaching more than 13.3 trillion VND, while the loss group only accounted for 10%, with total losses decreasing by more than 30% compared to the same period last year.

On UPCoM, 80% of businesses reported profits, with total profits reaching VND54.4 trillion – an increase of more than 40% over the same period, demonstrating significant improvement in financial health. Notably, in the past 2 years, 14 businesses have left UPCoM to list with a total value of more than VND31 trillion.

According to Mr. Nguyen Hoang Duong, Vice Chairman of the State Securities Commission (SSC), the market's new trading infrastructure has been operating stably and safely, creating conditions for upgrading from "frontier" to "secondary emerging" according to FTSE Russell standards. Vietnam is expected to be officially upgraded in September 2026.

The management agency will continue to improve the legal framework, strengthen corporate governance and information disclosure, and implement the Stock Market Upgrade Project and the Investor Restructuring Project, in order to develop a force of professional investors and attract sustainable indirect capital flows.

"At the same time, investment in information technology, administrative procedure reform and transparency enhancement will continue to be implemented, aiming to build an efficient, modern and internationally integrated stock market," Mr. Nguyen Hoang Duong shared.

Mr. Minh

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/tu-vi-mo-on-dinh-den-dong-luc-dau-tu-cong-thi-truong-cho-tin-hieu-dao-chieu-102251110180954087.htm