Coping with year-end rice market pressure

Rice packaging line for export of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company, Can Tho city. (Photo: MINH ANH)

Currently, the export price of 5% broken rice is only at 370 USD/ton. From now until the end of the year, competitive pressure in the global rice market will increase, requiring businesses to be flexible in terms of selling prices, export rice types and market trends...

According to Mr. Do Ha Nam , Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), it is expected that in 2025, Vietnam will export about 8.8 million tons of rice, maintaining its position as a national rice exporter. rice export the second largest in the world . However, from the beginning of this year to October 15, rice exports only reached 7.022 million tons, worth 3.588 billion USD, compared to the same period in 2024, down 4.4% in quantity and down 21.94% in value. The reason is due to Vietnamese rice is under multi-dimensional pressure from the world rice market, notably the Philippines temporarily suspending rice imports, while many countries are boosting exports, leading to surplus. supply globally.

According to VFA, world rice prices in the 2025/2026 crop year are forecast to decrease as supply recovers strongly and demand weakens. In Asia, rice prices have fallen to their lowest level in the past decade. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) forecasts global rice production in the 2025/2026 crop year to reach a record 556.4 million tons, contributing to increasing world reserves. Meanwhile, the Philippine government plans to extend the rice import suspension until the end of 2025 instead of 60 days from September 1 based on the record rice production in 2025 of 20.3-20.5 million tons; then it will only open for a short time in January 2026 to import about 300,000 tons of rice to stabilize domestic rice prices and protect farmers before the dry season harvest due to excess domestic supply. In addition, the Philippine government is also considering restoring rice import tariffs to 35% after reducing them to 15% from mid-2024.

For the Indonesian market, the Indonesian National Food Agency affirmed that all rice distributed from the national reserve through the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (Bulog) is safe for consumption and meets uniform quality standards. As of October 6, Bulog's rice inventory reached 3.89 million tons. According to the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, the country's rice output in 2025 is expected to reach 34.3 million tons, an increase of about 12.1% compared to 30.6 million tons in 2024 thanks to improved productivity and favorable weather. This also clearly affects Vietnam's rice exports when in the first nine months of this year, rice exports to this market decreased sharply by 97% compared to the same period last year.

In addition, the amount of rice exported to the Malaysian market decreased by 42% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching only 363,251 tons... While purchasing demand is weak, the world's leading rice-producing countries are boosting exports. Specifically, in India, the abundant rice supply is creating conditions for the government to loosen export restrictions, contributing to increasing global rice supply. In addition, Thailand is expected to export about 8.2 million tons of rice in 2025, a slight increase compared to 2024 thanks to favorable crop yields.

Rice harvest in Can Tho city. (Photo: ANH DUC)

The suspension or restriction of imports by major markets has pushed up rice supply, creating great competitive pressure for Vietnamese export enterprises, and at the same time making many farmers worried about the decline in domestic rice prices. Mr. Mai Van Dom (My Qui commune, Dong Thap province) said that in the last autumn-winter rice crop, the price of fresh rice in the field was only about 5,000 VND/kg, down nearly 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous crop. At this price, farmers only break even, making no profit.

Faced with that reality, Mr. Nguyen Chanh Trung, Director of Hung Viet Rice Limited Liability Company (An Giang province) said: To cope with market fluctuations and ensure stable rice purchases for farmers, businesses need to find "niche" ways such as choosing high-quality segments, exporting small, branded rice bags. Currently, the company has exported ST25 rice bags under its own brand to a number of markets and has received very positive feedback. Regarding traditional markets such as the Philippines and Indonesia, the recent reduction in rice imports has affected Vietnam's rice export volume, but looking at the broader picture, we still have a number of very large markets and market areas that have not been fully exploited, such as China and Africa. Therefore, businesses can focus on understanding the needs and promoting trade deeply into these markets.

However, businesses also need to take quick steps because most of the world's major rice-producing countries are "targeting" this region to expand consumption. In addition, to reduce pressure on rice exports, Vietnamese businesses should also pay attention to the domestic market when demand in the northern and central provinces from now until the end of the year is forecast to grow quite significantly due to floods affecting rice production. On the other hand, the end of the year is also the time when high-quality rice is strongly consumed domestically, which is the basis for businesses to access segments of specialty rice, nutritional rice, etc.

Regarding market opening, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is currently presiding over and coordinating with relevant agencies to promote the effective exploitation of signed free trade agreements (FTAs), while promoting negotiations and signing of new FTAs to open up potential markets such as the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, India, Pakistan, Brazil, etc.; promoting negotiations and signing of two FTAs between Vietnam and the South American Common Market (Mercosur) and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in the fourth quarter of 2025. These are all areas where Vietnam's rice market still has a lot of room to exploit, so the rice industry can expect to soon overcome competitive pressure and grow more strongly in the coming time.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/ung-pho-ap-luc-thi-truong-lua-gao-cuoi-nam-3384299.html