Responding to year-end market pressures for rice

In the first nine months of 2025, the average export price of Vietnamese rice is estimated at 509 USD/ton, a decrease of 18.6% compared to the same period in 2024.

The rice packaging line for export at Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company, Can Tho City. (Photo: MINH ANH)

Currently, the export price of 5% broken rice is only $370 per ton. From now until the end of the year, competitive pressure in the global rice market will increase, requiring businesses to be flexible in terms of selling prices, export rice varieties, and market trends...

According to Mr. Do Ha Nam , Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Vietnam is expected to export approximately 8.8 million tons of rice in 2025, maintaining its leading position in the country. rice exports Vietnam is the world's second largest rice producer. However, from the beginning of this year to October 15th, rice exports only reached 7.022 million tons, worth 3.588 billion USD, a decrease of 4.4% in quantity and 21.94% in value compared to the same period in 2024. The reason is due to... Vietnamese rice Rice is facing multifaceted pressures from the global rice market, notably the Philippines temporarily suspending rice imports, while many countries are boosting exports, leading to a surplus. supply globally.

According to the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), world rice prices are projected to fall in the 2025/2026 crop year as supply recovers strongly and demand weakens. In Asia, rice prices have already dropped to their lowest level in a decade. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts global rice production in the 2025/2026 crop year to reach a record 556.4 million tons, contributing to an increase in world reserves. Meanwhile, the Philippine government plans to extend the temporary ban on rice imports until the end of 2025 instead of the 60 days from September 1st, based on a record rice production of 20.3-20.5 million tons in 2025; after that, it will only open its doors briefly in January 2026 to import approximately 300,000 tons of rice to stabilize domestic rice prices and protect farmers from the dry season harvest due to excess domestic supply. Additionally, the Philippine government is also considering restoring the import tariff on rice to 35% after reducing it to 15% from mid-2024.

Regarding the Indonesian market, the Indonesian National Food Agency affirms that all rice distributed from national reserves through the Indonesian National Logistics Agency (Bulog) is safe for consumption and meets consistent quality standards. As of October 6th, Bulog's rice inventory reached 3.89 million tons. According to the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, the country's rice production in 2025 is expected to reach 34.3 million tons, an increase of approximately 12.1% compared to 30.6 million tons in 2024, thanks to improved yields and favorable weather conditions. This also significantly impacts Vietnam's rice exports, as exports to this market in the first nine months of this year decreased sharply by 97% compared to the same period last year.

Furthermore, rice exports to the Malaysian market decreased by 42% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching only 363,251 tons… While demand is weak, leading rice-producing countries are boosting exports. Specifically, in India, abundant rice supply is allowing the government to ease export restrictions, contributing to an increase in global rice supply. In addition, Thailand is expected to export approximately 8.2 million tons of rice in 2025, a slight increase compared to 2024 thanks to a favorable harvest.

Rice harvesting in Can Tho city. (Photo by ANH DUC)

The temporary suspension or restriction of imports by key markets has driven up rice supply, creating significant competitive pressure for Vietnamese export businesses and causing concern among farmers as domestic rice prices plummet. Mr. Mai Van Dodm (My Qui commune, Dong Thap province) stated that during the recent autumn-winter rice crop, the price of fresh rice at the field was only around 5,000 VND/kg, a decrease of nearly 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous season. At this price, farmers only break even, with no profit.

In light of this situation, Mr. Nguyen Chanh Trung, Director of Hung Viet Rice Co., Ltd. (An Giang province), stated: To cope with market fluctuations and ensure stable rice procurement for farmers, businesses need to find "niche" approaches such as choosing the high-quality segment and exporting small, branded packaged rice bags. Currently, the company has exported ST25 rice bags under its own brand to several markets and has received very positive feedback. Regarding traditional markets like the Philippines and Indonesia, while the recent decrease in rice imports has affected Vietnam's rice export volume, broadly speaking, we still have several large, untapped markets and regions such as China and Africa. Therefore, businesses can focus on understanding demand and promoting trade in these markets.

However, businesses also need to act quickly because most of the world's major rice-producing countries are targeting this region to expand consumption. In addition, to reduce pressure on rice exports, Vietnamese businesses should also focus on the domestic market, as demand in the northern and central provinces is projected to grow significantly from now until the end of the year due to floods affecting rice production. Furthermore, the end of the year is also a time when high-quality rice is in high demand domestically, providing a basis for businesses to access specialty rice and nutritional rice segments.

Regarding market opening efforts, the Ministry of Industry and Trade is currently leading and coordinating with relevant agencies to promote the effective exploitation of signed free trade agreements (FTAs), while also promoting negotiations for new FTAs ​​to open up potential markets such as the Middle East, Africa, Latin America, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, India, Pakistan, Brazil, etc.; and promoting negotiations and signing of two FTAs ​​between Vietnam and the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) and the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) in the fourth quarter of 2025. These are all market areas where Vietnam's rice industry still has significant room for growth, therefore the rice industry can expect to soon overcome competitive pressures and achieve stronger growth in the future.

Source: https://baoquangninh.vn/ung-pho-ap-luc-thi-truong-lua-gao-cuoi-nam-3384299.html