There is still a risk in case of stacking incidents.
According to the report at the conference, in the first 6 months of 2025, the total electricity output of the entire national system (including rooftop solar power) is estimated to reach 156.4 billion kWh, 3.04% higher than the same period in 2024, reaching 45% compared to the 2025 Plan approved by the Ministry of Industry and Trade in Decision No. 3300/QD-BCT dated December 15, 2024. The main reason is that the national temperature is lower than the same period and previous years, and the load demand does not increase as much as forecasted at the beginning of the year.
In the first 6 months of the year, the largest consumption capacity of the national power system reached 51,672 MW recorded on June 2, 2025, 5.7% higher than the same period in 2024 (in the North alone, the largest consumption capacity increased by 2,632 MW to 26,495 MW).
However, in 2025, with the target of high economic growth, striving to increase from 8%; from 2026 onwards, striving for even higher growth, therefore, the demand for electricity of businesses, people and the whole economy will be very large. This requires preparation in providing electricity to serve socio-economic development and people's lives; specifically, it is necessary to develop a plan to operate the system and provide electricity closely following reality, meeting growth needs with safe, stable and continuous conditions.
To ensure sufficient electricity supply for socio-economic development with an average GDP growth rate of about 10%/year in the 2026-2030 period and about 7.5%/year in the 2031-2050 period, the adjusted Power Plan VIII sets a target of striving for commercial electricity in 2030 to reach about 500.4-557.8 billion kWh, oriented to reach about 1,237.7-1,375.1 billion kWh in 2050; the maximum capacity in 2030 will be about 89,655-99,934 MW and in 2050 will reach about 205,732-228,570 MW.
Therefore, it is necessary to develop scenarios for electricity demand growth in 2026 to have appropriate response plans, specifically: in the baseline scenario, growth of 10-12%, corresponding to a GDP growth scenario of about 6.5-7% and normal weather conditions; In the high scenario, growth of 13-14%, corresponding to a GDP growth scenario higher than 7% and prolonged heat waves; In the extreme scenario, growth of over 15%, corresponding to breakthrough economic growth targets and widespread extreme weather events.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that for the 2026 operation, operational risks will depend on the progress of large thermal power projects. Even in the baseline scenario, if the Vung Ang II, Nhon Trach 3&4, and Quang Trach I projects are all put into operation on schedule, although the system can meet the demand, the reserve capacity is very low, especially in the North during the peak months of the dry season, posing a risk in the event of overlapping incidents.
Power Plan VIII may need to be reviewed and adjusted further.
Regarding the acceleration of the implementation of key power source and grid projects according to the Power Plan VIII and the Power Plan VIII Implementation Plan, Minister Nguyen Hong Dien said that in the past time, the Prime Minister and the Minister of Industry and Trade have issued many important instructions to promote the effective implementation of the contents of this Plan. Notably, the revised Electricity Law, passed by the National Assembly on November 30, 2024, has strongly decentralized and delegated power to local authorities, granting great authority and responsibility in organizing the implementation of power planning contents in the area. Therefore, the Minister requested that local leaders pay special attention and urgently direct the serious implementation of assigned tasks.
For central ministries and branches, Minister Dien suggested continuing to closely coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade and local authorities to proactively research, review, amend and propose amendments and supplements to relevant legal regulations. Especially mechanisms and policies that are strong and feasible enough to attract investment in developing power source and grid projects nationwide.
For the People's Committees of provinces and centrally-run cities, it is necessary to urgently review, adjust and update the contents of the Power Plan VIII and the Power Plan VIII Implementation Plan into the Provincial Plan, ensuring consistency and unity in implementation. Quickly stabilize the organizational structure and arrange qualified personnel to carry out assigned tasks, especially in localities that are merging administrative units according to the Project approved by the National Assembly.
Minister Dien also noted that the merger has created major changes in planning space, leading to the need for power source and grid projects to be reallocated and readjusted. This raises the urgent need to readjust provincial planning to be consistent with national sector planning. If necessary, even the Power Plan VIII needs to be reviewed and adjusted accordingly to ensure the feasibility and consistency of the entire planning system.
At the same time, special attention should be paid to ensuring consistency between types of planning, specifically power planning and cross-border infrastructure planning (for example, the Chinese region) to create a favorable legal basis for project implementation.
Source: https://baophapluat.vn/xay-dung-3-kich-ban-cung-ung-dien-nam-2026-post552849.html
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