Meaning and impact

US presidential elections are always important not only within the US but also to the international community, because the US is one of the most influential countries in the world .

Presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are very close in support. (Source: The Bulletin Time)

The US President has the power to set foreign policy, control the military , and use nuclear weapons - factors that can have a major impact on regional and global stability. The US President's decisions on trade, international security, and climate change have a strong impact on other countries, from economic powerhouses like China and the European Union to developing countries.

US policy in supporting or reducing commitments to international alliances and organizations such as NATO, the WTO, or international agreements (such as the Paris Agreement on climate change) will also affect global political and economic stability.

With the current trend of many major countries competing in trade, technology and military, the direction of the US in this year's election is of particular interest.

Forecast results

Current reputable polls in the US show that the two candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have very close support rates across the US, especially in the battleground states. As of October 30, Gallup poll results show that Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris by 50/48, while Pew Research shows that Trump is closely following Harris by 47/48 percentage points.

In traditional states, Mr. Trump appealed to voters with his hardline stance on immigration and his focus on the domestic economy. “Red” states like Texas and Florida showed clear support for Mr. Trump. In contrast, Ms. Harris focused on social justice and the environment, attracting voters in “blue” states like California.

In the battleground states, the race is tight. Harris leads in Michigan (by three points), Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (by 1-2 points), reflecting voters’ preferences for health care and education. Trump leads by two points in Georgia, thanks to his focus on the economy and jobs. That suggests the gap is well within the margin of error of current polling methods (which, depending on the method, range from 3-5 percentage points).

Polls show that it is difficult to predict the outcome of this year's US presidential election and the final outcome could depend on unexpected factors, such as voter turnout and even the weather on election day!

However, forecasting the US election is not simply about predicting who will win the presidential election, but also includes many other aspects of forecasting related to the factors that make up US political power. In addition to the race for the White House, the elections for Congress, including the Senate and the House of Representatives, are also the focus of forecasting. Control of Congress will directly affect the President's ability to pass policies, and impact the effectiveness of national governance.

According to statistics and observations of the current political situation in the US, it is very likely that no party can win both the presidential seat and the majority in both houses of the US Congress. It is highly likely that the US Congress will be divided, leading to the US President having to compromise with Congress in promulgating and implementing major policies.

Forecasting goes beyond analyzing the potential impact of the election results, which could lead to adjustments in US foreign policy and international strategy, or shifts in economic and defense priorities.

For example, a Democratic administration pushes commitments on climate change and human rights, while a Republican administration typically focuses on tax reform and reducing domestic economic barriers. The outcome of a state’s gubernatorial election can influence state policies on immigration, health care, and education, making a big difference in the national political landscape.

The 2024 US election shows that there is a deepening polarization in American society, a trend that has appeared in previous elections but has become more evident after the last term. Political and cultural issues such as abortion rights, immigration management, gun ownership and climate change continue to deeply divide groups of voters. Debates about the accuracy and transparency of the electoral system have become a matter of great concern to American voters since the 2020 election.

Another difference is the impact of technology and media. In the age of social media and fake news, campaigns face enormous pressure to control information. Social media platforms and media have become important tools for shaping candidates’ images, but at the same time, they can be suspected of being channels for disinformation aimed at discrediting political opponents.

One commonality is that both sides are focusing their efforts on appealing to swing voters in battleground states that could decide the outcome.

Main strategy

The Democratic Party’s strategy focuses on maintaining the economic and social gains of the past. Democratic candidates continue to pledge to improve health care, increase social welfare, protect the environment, and promote social equality. To appeal to younger voters and minorities, their strategy includes messages about climate change, human rights, and legal reform to create a more equitable society.

Meanwhile, Republicans often focus on a message of economic recovery, protecting traditions and promoting individual freedoms. Republican candidates tend to criticize current Democratic policies and pledge to change the tax system, reduce business costs and strengthen border security. They emphasize the role of a strong, economically and militarily independent America, attracting conservative voters and businesses.

Attracting great attention

Countries in the region such as China, Japan, South Korea, ASEAN countries and certainly Vietnam are closely following the US election because the election results will affect trade issues, regional security and US foreign policy towards the region. China is particularly interested in US policy towards Taiwan (China).

A Democratic administration would likely prioritize maintaining strategic-level communications and building a network of allies and partners to influence China's foreign policy environment, while a Republican administration would likely be willing to take tough unilateral steps against Beijing, especially economic and trade measures such as tariffs.

Japan and South Korea have particular concerns about regional security, especially North Korea. Both countries are concerned about how the next U.S. administration will maintain its defense commitments and security treaties with these countries. They believe that a U.S. administration that maintains its commitments to its allies in East Asia will contribute to regional security.

ASEAN countries are very interested in how the next US administration will view the role of this organization, whether it will prioritize multilateralism or promote unilateralism, whether it will truly value ASEAN's central role or prioritize bilateral relations with some key members.

In the context of profound changes in the world, the 2024 US presidential election will not only be a race between candidates but also a referendum on the direction, role and global position of the US in the coming years. This result will have a profound impact on the world situation, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, which the US has identified as a region with long-term strategic interests for decades to come.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/election-of-the-US-President-2024-y-nghia-va-tac-dong-292057.html