7 months after the mutiny in Russia, what are Wagner soldiers still doing in Belarus?

Members of the Wagner PMC private military group, under a deal brokered following a failed coup last June, are still in Belarus and are supported by local security forces.

Television footage of joint exercises often shows the Belarusian national flag, the flags of Belarusian law enforcement agencies, and the Wagner Group flag. Belarusian Deputy Interior Minister and Commander of the Interior Mikalai Karpiankou was even seen wearing a badge with Wagner's image.

Some go, some stay

Seven months ago, at the end of June 2023, the founder of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, initiated an armed mutiny against the Russian military leadership. The Wagner “boss” led his forces into Russia from Ukraine, captured the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don and marched towards the capital Moscow.

The Wagner chief called the mutiny a “march of justice” aimed at overthrowing Russia’s top military leaders. Prigozhin’s group met little resistance and shot down at least six military helicopters and a command post plane, killing at least 10 pilots.

Through the mediation of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and the approval of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the rebellion ended, with Mr Prigozhin agreeing to move to Belarus in exchange for immunity from the criminal case opened by Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). Wagner fighters involved in the mutiny were also not prosecuted.

World - 7 months after the mutiny in Russia, what are Wagner soldiers still doing in Belarus? — Wagner tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin leaves Rostov-on-Don in a heavily guarded black SUV on the evening of June 24, 2023. Photo: NY Times

Wagner was reportedly killed in a plane crash in Russia at the end of August. There are now fewer than 1,000 Wagner soldiers in Belarus. Most of them are stationed in a barracks in the Osipovichi district of the Mogilev region, just southeast of the capital Minsk. Previously, the number was closer to 4,000 or even 10,000, as the Wagner Group itself claimed. The question is, what are the remaining Wagner soldiers still doing in Belarus, seven months after the coup?

Dozens of Wagner soldiers – who are “looking for safety, stability and are willing to accept lower wages” – are receiving Belarusian passports, with new names and dates of birth, and are joining the paramilitary police force under the Belarusian Interior Ministry , said Valery Sakhashchyk, a prominent exiled Belarusian commander with ties to opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

Useful tools

According to Mr. Sakhashchyk, the Belarusian leadership is unlikely to offer anything special to entice Wagner soldiers to stay. Military salaries in Belarus are much lower than the salaries they are used to in Russia, Mr. Sakhashchyk said.

As a result, Sakhashchyk said there was a high probability that more Wagner members would leave the country. “Belarus has become a transit point for them. Many have signed contracts with various Russian authorities and some have flown to Africa. There are not enough mercenaries left in Belarus to influence events,” the former commander said.

For those who chose to stay, Mr. Sakhashchyk said, their presence in Belarus caused great social tension and attracted significant resistance, even from the local armed forces, but still received active support from the Belarusian Interior Ministry.

World - 7 months after the mutiny in Russia, what are Wagner soldiers still doing in Belarus? (Photo 2). — Wagner soldiers and Belarusian servicemen take part in training in Brest, Belarus, July 20, 2023. Photo: Business Insider

Ryhor Nizhnikau, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, pointed out that Minsk sees Wagner soldiers as a “useful political tool.” Lukashenko’s government could use them to train Belarusian security forces, or as a “scare tactic” at mass events.

He also believes the Kremlin benefits from the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus. Almost all Russian forces stationed in the country have been withdrawn since 2021 and moved to the Ukrainian front. Mr. Nizhnikau believes that Mr. Putin is treating Wagner mercenaries as emergency combat units, if needed.

“For Putin, it is important that he can maintain at least some presence in Belarus. I believe he is obsessed with color revolutions, thinking that the West can overthrow any pro-Russian government in the region,” Nizhnikau said .

Minh Duc (According to DW, AP)

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