ADB lowers Vietnam growth forecast to 5.8%

07/19/2023 16:11 Nhat Linh Print article

ANTD.VN - The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has just adjusted down Vietnam's growth forecast in 2023 from 6.5% to 5.8%, and from 6.8% to 6.2% in 2024.

This forecast is made in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2023 report, released by ADB today, July 19.

Weak external demand continues to weigh on industrial production and manufacturing, while domestic conditions are expected to improve. Inflation is forecast to slow to 4% in 2023 and 2024, according to the ADB.

ADB lowers Vietnam's economic growth forecast this year

For developing economies in Asia and the Pacific , ADB maintains its growth outlook at 4.8% this year, as strong domestic demand continues to support the region's recovery.

Inflation is expected to continue to decline, approaching pre-pandemic levels as fuel and food prices decline. Inflation in developing Asia is forecast at 3.6% this year, compared with 4.2% forecast in April. Meanwhile, the inflation forecast for 2024 has been raised to 3.4% from the previous estimate of 3.3%.

The reopening of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is boosting regional growth. China’s economy is forecast to grow 5.0% this year, unchanged from the April forecast, amid strong domestic demand in the services sector.

However, demand for developing Asia’s exports of electronics and other manufactured goods is slowing as tighter monetary policy leads to sluggish economic activity in major advanced economies. The region’s growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down slightly to 4.7% from the 4.8% forecast in April.

“Asia and the Pacific continues to recover from the pandemic at a steady pace,” said ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. “Domestic demand and services activity are driving growth, while many economies are benefiting from a strong rebound in tourism. However, industrial activity and exports remain weak, leading to a weaker outlook for global growth and demand next year.”

ADB kept its growth forecasts unchanged for most subregions in Asia and the Pacific. Exceptions include Southeast Asia, where the outlook was downgraded to 4.6% this year and 4.9% next year, from April estimates of 4.7% and 5.0%, respectively...

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