Former US President Donald Trump is increasingly likely to win the election as the situation in the battleground states is tilting in his favor and reputable polling organizations all rate Mr. Trump as clearly ahead.
Former US President Donald Trump is facing a great opportunity to be re-elected for a second term. Photo: Reuters.
Mr. Trump has a 66% chance of winning. According to the British newspaper Telegraph, forecasts from research organizations in the US show that Mr. Trump is dominating in the battleground states. According to the analysis organization FiveThirtyEight, he has a 51% chance of winning, American researcher Nate Silver gave the number 53%, while The Economist newspaper rated him with a 54% chance. JL Partners - a forecasting company in the UK - also noted that Mr. Trump has surpassed the 50% chance of winning. The British newspaper assessed Mr. Trump's current chance of winning the election at 66%. The main reason comes from the fact that Mr. Trump is increasingly improving his position in 7 battleground states, especially Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. However, to secure victory, Mr. Trump needs one more battleground state, and the most feasible is Pennsylvania - where surveys show the percentage of voters leaning towards Mr. Trump. The impact of polarization and election strategy According to the Telegraph, there are two main factors that are believed to help Mr. Trump get closer to victory. First, the surge in Republican voters willing to vote in Pennsylvania and the "unusually" high rate of early voting in Nevada show that Mr. Trump has received great support. Although both Democrats and Republicans have stepped up their campaigns, Mr. Trump's campaign has emphasized the issue of inflation and hardship in life, reminding many people of the stable economic period he led. Second, Mr. Trump's campaign often makes a strong impression, attracting the attention of voters. An anonymous voter in Pennsylvania shared: "I remember the recent weekend Trump fried French fries at McDonald's. This is something Harris could not do." Mr. Trump's advantage thanks to the group of undecided voters Some undecided voters, although not in large numbers, have also begun to lean towards Mr. Trump. In previous interviews, many people have expressed concerns about his temperament. Recently, a widow in Wisconsin said: "Mr. Trump has a lot of scandals, but he knows how to get things done." The tense international situation, especially the risk of a full-blown conflict in the Middle East, could help Trump score more points with voters. Americans expect that Mr. Trump's return will help end and cool down the conflicts. Ms. Harris's difficulties in attracting voters US Vice President Kamala Harris - Mr. Trump's opponent, is facing challenges in attracting voters' support. Support for Ms. Harris among the African-American community, especially among men in key states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania, is showing signs of decline. In addition, Ms. Harris also has difficulty attracting Hispanic voters and young progressives, partly because of her views on Israel. Many independent voters describe her as “nice” and “like an aunt,” but are skeptical about her leadership abilities. Uncertainties Despite Trump’s lead, Harris still has a 34% chance of winning. According to the British newspaper, polling forecasts are not always accurate. The situation on the ground can change due to local factors, such as Trump losing votes because of a scandal-hit Republican gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina. However, Trump is generally in a very good position ahead of the official US election on November 5. Chris, a voter in Georgia, said: “I’m not as afraid of Trump as I was before. I think we have to face the reality that Trump will be re-elected and he won’t destroy America (as people feared).”According to Dang Nguyen - Telegraph (The Messenger)
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