Bitcoin breaks key resistance level, fears of a crypto winter return.

This morning's update (December 13th) shows the cryptocurrency market is experiencing a worrying correction. Bitcoin has officially lost a crucial psychological support level, at one point slipping to the $85,171 region - its lowest level in the past two weeks.

Compared to its all-time high of $126,000 set in October, the world's largest cryptocurrency has "evaporated" approximately 30% of its value. Notably, this negative development is in stark contrast to the euphoria of the traditional stock market, where the S&P 500 index has maintained a growth rate of nearly 16% this year.

For the first time since 2014, bitcoin has shown a clear decoupled and is lagging behind stocks, leading investors to seriously question its status as a "safe haven asset."

The red color also spread to other digital assets. Ether (ETH) broke the $3,000 mark, while dogecoin and XRP both fell by about 5%.

Bitcoin thủng mốc then chốt, nỗi lo mùa đông tiền số quay lại - 1 — Bitcoin extended its decline in 2025 while silver, gold, and copper surged (Photo: Yahoo).

Decoding the Downturn: When Confidence Hits Bottom

Why did Bitcoin "crash" right before the new year, a time usually expected to see price surges? According to analysis of market data and reports from major financial institutions, there are three main factors squeezing the price of Bitcoin.

First, there's the "trap" of a cost of goods sold of $103,000.

This is an invisible but currently the most powerful drag. Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, points out a "critical" technical statistic: investors who entered the market in the last six months are holding bitcoin at an average cost of $103,000.

This creates an extreme defensive mindset.

With the current Bitcoin price (around $85,000-$86,000) significantly lower than the initial cost, investors tend to wait for a slight price recovery before selling to break even or minimize losses (reach the break-even point) instead of buying more. This underlying selling pressure quickly halts any attempts at Bitcoin's recovery.

Secondly, there are headwinds from the global macro level.

The market is holding its breath ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) move. Investors fear the BOJ will raise interest rates later this week, reversing the flow of capital from yen interest rate differentials.

Over the past period, a large flow of cheap yen-borrowed funds has poured into risky assets like Bitcoin. If interest rates in Japan rise, this money will be forced to be withdrawn to repay debt, triggering a widespread sell-off. History shows that every time the BOJ tightens the tap, Bitcoin usually reacts negatively with a drop of 20-30%.

Furthermore, despite the Fed's interest rate cuts, uncertainty about the next policy path and conflicting US economic data (inflation, employment) have led speculative capital to choose a wait-and-see approach.

Thirdly, there is the issue of depleted liquidity and the domino effect.

A report from 10X Research shows that trading volume has decreased by 20% compared to last week. In this environment of thin liquidity, even moderate selling pressure is enough to cause significant price fluctuations.

As a result, over $200 million worth of leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated (account wiped out) in just a few hours when the price broke below $90,000. The triggering of automatic sell orders created a vicious cycle that pushed the price further down to the $85,000 region.

Outlook: Winter or an opportunity to accumulate wealth?

From the perspective of financial institutions, the short-term outlook is quite bleak. Standard Chartered Bank, known for its optimistic forecasts, has just lowered its Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000. Even expectations for 2026 have been halved to $150,000.

Ms. Linh Tran, an expert from XS.com, offered a more realistic assessment: "Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a sudden surge, but will instead consolidate sideways within a wide range of $80,000-$100,000."

However, on the other hand, "whales" are still accumulating. Strategy Inc., owned by billionaire Michael Saylor, just announced the purchase of nearly $1 billion worth of bitcoin for the second consecutive week, despite the downward trend. This move shows that the confidence of large investors in the long-term value remains unshaken.

With the loss of the $86,000 mark, Bitcoin is drifting towards a dangerous support zone. For individual investors at this time, carefully observing the $80,000 price level and macroeconomic signals (especially yen interest rates) is more important than rushing to buy at the bottom when the market still has so many unpredictable variables.

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