Stocks next week: Continued volatility, investors should be cautious

VN-Index decreased by nearly 36 points compared to the end of last week, equivalent to a decrease of 2.35%, to 1,495 points. The session on July 29 recorded the index peaking at nearly 1,566 points but then turned around and fell deeply by 64 points on the same day. The fluctuation range during the week was up to 78 points.

Liquidity remained high, with trading value almost always above VND40,000 billion per session. The July 29 session alone recorded record liquidity with 2.7 billion shares matched, totaling nearly VND72,000 billion, one of the highest levels in history. During the week, trading volume on HoSE increased by 31.6% compared to the previous week. However, foreign investors sold a strong net of about VND4,750 billion, after a period of active disbursement in the first half of July.

According to Beta Securities (BSI), the market last week was a "stormy journey", when investors' psychology went through a range of emotions from expectation to anxiety and panic. After a period of price increase lasting nearly 4 months and 6 consecutive weeks of strong increase, stocks entered a correction phase when they reached the historical peak of 2022.

Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS) commented that the market breadth is leaning towards correction. Short-term selling pressure is evident in the retail, technology - telecommunications, seafood, agriculture , steel and real estate groups. Meanwhile, the securities and port - shipping groups still maintain their upward momentum until the last session of the week when they begin to face pressure.

SHS assesses that VN-Index is still maintaining a short-term uptrend above the support zone around 1,480 points, with psychological resistance at 1,500 points. If the 1,480 point mark is lost, the uptrend may end. The market has now finished receiving second quarter business results and may move into an accumulation and adjustment phase to find a new balance point. August is considered a period of information void, while new tariff policies begin to have a direct impact on businesses.

Technically, Vietcombank Securities (VCBS) said that the RSI and MACD indicators on the daily chart continued to decrease in height, indicating that the possibility of a tug-of-war and fluctuations will continue in the short term. However, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is still in the high zone, showing that money is still circulating in the market. The index's recovery from the MA20 line in the August 1 session shows an effort to find a balance point around 1,500 points. On the hourly chart, the RSI showed a positive divergence while the MACD decreased, indicating a high probability that the market will continue to increase and decrease alternately.

VCBS recommends that investors maintain a safe margin ratio, hold stocks that show signs of recovery from the support zone and consider increasing the proportion during fluctuations. Investors holding a lot of cash can disburse part of their investment into stocks that attract cash flow and have room to increase compared to the nearest resistance zone.

In the medium term, BSI assesses that the market is still maintaining a positive trend, but selling pressure is clearly increasing from both domestic and foreign individual investors. This is a sign that profit-taking and cautiousness are dominating in the short term. Experts recommend that investors should temporarily observe, avoid "buying by chase", keep a high cash ratio and only disburse small amounts into stocks with good fundamentals that have adjusted to strong support levels.

Nhat Viet Securities (VFS) believes that the market is retesting the old peak of 1,500 - 1,520 points. Cash flow is still present in the market and circulating between industry groups, while institutional demand remains stable. VFS forecasts two scenarios for the market in August: (1) Improved demand helps VN-Index overcome the current resistance zone and continue the uptrend; or (2) Profit-taking pressure continues to cause the market to fluctuate within the range of 1,450 - 1,550 points.

In the VN30 group, SHS believes that the index is testing the 2021 peak zone in the range of 1,540 - 1,590 points, which is a strong resistance zone that needs to be closely monitored. In the context of gradually depleting supporting information after the business results season, the market may strongly differentiate and need time to create a new price level. Cash flow is expected to be directed to leading stocks with good foundations and long-term benefits. Investors are recommended to maintain a reasonable proportion and limit the use of high leverage.

Source: https://baogialai.com.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-toi-bien-dong-tiep-dien-nha-dau-tu-nen-than-trong-post562582.html