Vietnamese stocks drop to record low amid green across Asia: Experts decode

Asian stock indexes rose across the board on October 20 as the US-China trade war showed signs of easing. In contrast, the Vietnamese market experienced a "shocking" session with a record drop.

The stock market has just experienced a very sharp decline - Photo: QUANG DINH

Vietnamese stocks are lost in the Asian market

The trading session on October 20 marked the sharpest decline in the history of the Vietnamese stock market, when the VN-Index lost nearly 95 points, from 1,730 points to 1,636 points.

This is the sharpest drop in terms of points ever, surpassing the record drop on April 3, 2025, when the index "evaporated" nearly 88 points.

In contrast to the strong correction pressure of VN-Index, Asian stocks rose in the session of October 20. Regional investor sentiment was supported by a statement from US President Donald Trump, helping to cool down US-China trade tensions after a volatile trading week.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 index led the regional rally, jumping 3.47% to 49,235 points, setting a new historical high. The Hang Seng index rose 2.42% to 25,858 points. In line with the trend, other markets in Asia also increased points.

Speaking to Tuoi Tre Online , Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Development for Individual Clients at Yuanta Securities Vietnam, said that the main reason for the Vietnamese market's decline did not come from macro factors or business results, but from widespread investor concern.

Mr. Minh said the first factor that caused the market to fluctuate was the psychological impact after the recent inspection conclusion on corporate bonds. In that context, the margin rate (margin loan) in the market remained high. When stock prices fell sharply, securities companies were forced to liquidate mortgages, creating a "domino" effect.

Domestic macro factors are all positive: GDP growth is stable, business results in the third quarter are positive. Therefore, the market is in a short-term negative phase, but Mr. Minh expects the sharp decline to end soon.

"With a normal technical correction, it usually falls 1-2%. But when the market falls 5-6% in just one session, it is a sign that this decline will not last," he said.

According to Mr. Minh, the sharp and sudden decline could be the premise for a quick recovery afterward, because selling pressure is released in a short time, helping the market to quickly regain balance.

Vietnam stocks are positive in the medium and long term.

Mr. Bui Nguyen Khoa, Deputy Director of BIDV Securities Analysis Center (BSC), commented that after a period of concentrated and unspreading increases, the stock market is entering a necessary adjustment phase.

The important support levels he identified are around 1,600 and 1,550 points.

"Although there may be short-term fluctuations, a solid macro foundation is still a factor that strengthens the long-term outlook of the market," Mr. Khoa told Tuoi Tre Online.

According to Mr. Khoa, when VN-Index surpassed the 1,700-point threshold and advanced to the 1,760-point area, this increase could be considered positive but lacked spread. Most of the increase was concentrated in Vinhomes (VHM) shares, accounting for 70-80% of the total increase in the market.

Although liquidity has improved, the increase is not significant, showing that the upward momentum is more technical than real cash flow. It is the heavy concentration on pillar stocks that makes the market vulnerable to profit-taking pressure, leading to a strong sell-off in recent sessions.

Mr. Khoa said that market correction is completely appropriate and normal, especially when considering the context of previous uptrend cycles that have recorded common corrections of 10-15%.

Impact after inspection conclusion on bonds?

Mr. Duc Vu, Deputy Director of Vietcap Securities Analysis Department:

VN-Index fell 5.5% in the first session of the week with widespread selling pressure causing many stocks on HoSE to hit the floor. We believe that the negative market sentiment was driven by the change in short-term technical signals of VN-Index after the decline last Friday and the conclusion of the Government Inspectorate 's inspection of corporate bond issuance reported by the media at the weekend.

According to us, the current support zone of VN-Index is 1,560-1,620 points, which is the index's fluctuation range from the beginning of August 2025 until before the announcement of the stock market upgrade. Therefore, it is likely that after touching this support, VN-Index may see a recovery.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-viet-giam-ky-luc-giua-sac-xanh-toan-chau-a-chuyen-giai-ma-20251020171456195.htm